Selling before the bubble bursts?

Supreme Court decision on tariffs will be a few days later (if I am correct). From a game theory perspective it’s odd that he did not wait for that first. His current shoot from the hip effort re tariffs / Greenland will presumably only give the SCOTUS more reason to strike Trump down.

I assume EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument will also take a bit longer then Monday.

But, yeah, in the end it’ll me TACO for dinner again eventually.

You seem to be a prime candidate for alts. Pure stocks are only dominant if one has a risk appetite at or exceeding 100% stocks, but is unwilling to take up leverage (or gamble with even more concentration).

For everything else actual diversification matters. Alts will be diversifying with a return compared to other options that have very questionable returns, like cash.

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Hope it can wait for next Monday (payday)…

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Once I think that all that fluff is just to move the topic away from the E.island, it all makes more sense :smiley:

Anyway, speaking about The Bubble, I keep reading articles about this force feeding the users with AI. It seems that AI to the consumer is right now more hated than else. X is almost getting banned for that dumb button idea, Microsoft (actually Business side this one) is getting investigated in Switzerland by the COMCO (lucky for MS there isn’t an “Office for the bloating of perectly fine tools” ) and ..I actually forgot the third big example. Well there is also the Energy cost thing but that is general for the whole AI market.

All historical bubbles burst when interest rates go up. Until that happens I don’t think major trouble happening.

so the key number to watch as usual is 10Y and 2Y yield

Revealed preferences say otherwise. A billion people are voluntarily and intentionally using AI tools. That’s totally new ones, it’s not even about AI being added to existing systems and being disingenously counted as AI users. The frontier labs have gone from no commercial products to ~$30B annual run-rate in a couple of years.

The one thing people seem to genuinely hate is having somebody present obviously AI-written text as their own. They’re happy e.g. interacting with a chatbot themselves. As far as I can tell they mostly don’t care about whether images are AI-generated or real (like, they say they hate AI-generated images but for basically any actual use of an image an AI-generated one will produce just as good an effect). They could not care less about whether code of the software they use is artisanal or AI-generated.

There is also a pretty big difference in the utility of AI features that have been artificially crammed into existing software vs. ones where the software was created with AI capabilities in mind. I don’t think anyone actually likes AI features in their office suite no matter how desperately Microsoft and Google try to promote the features in the UI. People have their workflows, and resent software that’s going out of their way to make them change to something else. But contrast that to something like NotebookLM; that’s software that a lot of people seem to genuinely love, and it’s all because of the AI features.

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Ok I agree.
I just wonder about the numbers involved (investments in the wrong direction etc.)