I was browsing through reddit and found an interesting analysis about the safe withdrawal rate for people who retired in 2000.
In there, they use the data from ERN (Early Retirement Now) about the subject.
I went to ERN blog and found out he wrote a full paper with that.
When talking about withdrawal rates in retirement it’s hard to ignore the 4% rule. The origin of this rule goes back to the work of Bengen (1994, 1996, 1997, 2001) and Cooley, Hubbard and Walz (1998, 2011), more commonly known as the Trinity Study. The Trinity Study showed that withdrawing 4% of the portfolio value at the beginning of retirement and subsequently adjusting the withdrawals for inflation, will likely sustain a 30-year retirement in a portfolio comprised of 50-100% stocks and 0-50% bonds. This result is relevant to the average retiree with a horizon of only 30 years and not the typical early retiree with a much longer horizon, though. We perform extensive simulations and case studies targeted at early retirees and show that the longer horizon and today’s expensive equity valuations will likely necessitate a lower initial withdrawal rate.
You can find the full paper (47 pages) here:
Google Sheet with paper’s data: