Ray Dalio launches all-weather ETF

Investing / Portfolios
1

IMO the timing is perfect - whats your opinion about the all weather portfolio / ETF? I am actually considering usign it to diversify a bit from VT/Cash only because its very convenient to have it as 1 ETF. However the TER of 0.85 hurts a bit :wink:

links:

1 Like
2

Curious to see what’s the broad allocations within it. The previous view of the All-Weather included 55% bonds, and Ray Dalio had recently gone to think and express the thoughts that bonds were trash (so not all-weather but most-weather at best).

I do respect Ray Dalio and I do like his approach but I’m curious to know what makes this one “true all-weather”.

3

This is what I found:

IMG_0163
IMG_01631179×783 98.8 KB

So leverage is part of the concept


3 Likes
4

So active management, varied asset classes and leverage. It could work. I’m curious to see how it will pan out (I’ll just spectate, though. If my actively managed assets loose value, I want it to be fully on me and not on an outside asset manager so as to minimize regrets).

3 Likes
5

I guess it’s a risk parity fund?

1 Like
6

Looks about like it.

Similar to UPAR

2 Likes
7

Not bad
timing :wink:

1 Like
8

Ah Ray

Not following his own advice that one should change the roof while it’s sunny outside.

2 Likes
9

That’s a good saying, but why is it bad to launch this now though?

Not saying this will be 100% predictable/safe, but I’m pretty sure it’ll be marketed like that because it taps into the current psychology.

10

From what I see from the Holdings excel file on the SPDR website, as of 10 March 2025, the portfolio is:
USD 3,7%
US Gov Money Market 44,8%
Treasury Inflation Linked 31,5%
S&P500 13,3%
Emerging Equities 4,4%
China Equities 2,7%

For the sake of simplicity I have removed the lines <25bps (mostly shorts on EU Equity)

These numbers don’t reconcile with the fund’s Asset Allocation Breakdown, which shows much more weight on Equities and Commodities.

Any ideas why?

2 Likes
11

Futures.

Futures have no intrinsic value, they have exposure. The cash in part serves as collateral.
That‘s also hoe the leverage is achieved.

2 Likes
12

It’s more or less a variety of a cockroach portfolio, so not really a new approach. Personally, I find the cockroach strategy quite a sensible approach, although it isn’t particularly mustachian.

In my opinion though, the bottom line in investing is: You invest in something because you believe its value will go up over the long term. As such, I would generally advise against changing your portfolio based on fluctuations in the markets.

I tend to shy away from new funds, simply on the basis that they generally low AUM and therefore the TER tends to be high. Additionally, the low AUM makes them less resilient, so there is a higher risk of the fund being dissolved. Then there is the absence of historical data.

For that price, you could create a cheaper cockroach portfolio yourself, or using a cheap robo advisor if you don’t want to handle rebalancing, etc.

1 Like