Private Markets

I was at a Zurich event today about private equity is investment class for retail investors. KKR, CVC, etc presented. Pretty interesting, in particular the realization that public company count is decreasing and is now massively (!!!) lower than peivately owned companes (in mid and large cap space).

Do any of you have significant $$$ allocated here? Lessons? Is it much more inefficient to just buy private market shares vs putting money in illiquid funds?

It feels like something i should explore, especially as you want to find fish where there’s more of them (private) as opposed to less (public).

Should add, nice goody bags at this event! Also important!

The issue with private equity is usually that after fees (which are extremely high) and accounting for the inherent leverage, you arrive at the same return than public equities.

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Yes, one of the questions was returns.

the cvc guy indicated 20% in past funds but lower going forward to to interest rate / multiple constraints and increased competition

the kkr woman indicated 12-15%… which is good but not so great to lock up capital so long and have concentration risks… plus growth plus dividend plus options on other options gives more potential.

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Its certainly interesting that more companies choose to stay private. I think private equity is difficult to assess. As I understand and similar to hedge funds, performance can vary significantly by fund and manager, so you have to select (or be lucky) with the right manager. Then its also about getting access to those funds. As an individual it depends on the bank you have and what they can offer you.

Then it also depends on which returns are mentioned by the PE firms, as they can look better in some instances (e.g. IRR can be gamed). For the illiquidity the investor should receive a higher return but evidence shows that this is not the case. For me PE is juicing returns with leverage, so why not just leverage your existing equity portfolio with maybe 10-30% leverage. Fees are obviously higher. Also the observation that PE firms want to “democratise” access to private markets and get more retail and affluent investors involved sounds suspect, almost as if they would like to find some exit liquidity.

There is a professor at Oxford that often writes about PE, he published an interesting piece a few years ago: An Inconvenient Fact: Private Equity Returns & The Billionaire Factory
it also includes a comparison of public & private market returns

Edit: Seems like UBS (they organised this event right?) has an incentive for their clients to invest in those funds:
“Swiss bank UBS has been striking fee-sharing deals of the kind that inspire questions about conflicts of interest. Asset managers including Carlyle and CVC agreed to give UBS a slice of their performance fees when the bank funnels wealthy clients towards private funds, dubbed “evergreen” because they have no fixed end date. The fancy name for this is a “retrocession”.” Link

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Democratising access to private markets has a name, which is going public through an IPO. I am not completely comfortable with why they would like to get retail and affluent investors onboard but do not want to go public.

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Because a private company is required to disclose less information publicly about its finances and corporate governance, and because the market is less liquid, the stock is valued less frequently. For investors, these are all risks. For the company, they are may opportunities.

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Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I’ll be sure to read the article you linked.

Some additional points of feedback from yesterday.

First, yes, it was organized by UBS. And these events are never ‘casual’ so to speak as they also reached out to me to discuss financial planning for the future. My guess is that’s where they make the hard push to buy more UBS-advantageous products. I hate that - it makes me feel like a cash cow for them. Hence, I deliberately keep things like 3rd pillar and freizugigkeitskonto far away from them (also other reasons: high fees at UBS). I do appreciate banking with UBS (e.g. good mortgage, love the access to analyst reports researching stocks, etc.) but don’t want to be absorbed in their ‘ecosystem’ like Apple has done with me! Also, no surprise what you mentioned about UBS getting a cut of the fees… and it’s annoying how they shuffle that under the rug.

Second, the goody bag was good (my wife confirmed) and the canape’s were great as well. So was the people watching. I imagine there were 100 or so attendees perhaps totalling 1-2 billion in capital - people who sold their business, execs, retirees, an occasional “I married to a rich guy who passed away”, etc. - this was part of the fun.

Third, I went to get a sense of whether putting part of my portfolio into this was something for me. I left with a couple of (confirmed) thoughts

  • PE is a superior model (reduced distraction from quarterly earnings enables longer term decisions; aligned incentives; performance culture; etc.) over public markets. But there’s some big but’s
    • Where does the value really go? With the 2% management fee + 20% carry it’s clear the PE firm wins. Management can win big too. But is there really that much left for people putting $ into the fund to offset the downsides (concentration risk, liquidity risk, etc.). I’m not so sure.
    • Obviously KKR/CVC gave some outstanding examples (4x-10x money on money) but still returns overall are in the 12-20% range so as usual there’s also a lot of meh’s and dogs offsetting that. This means risk.
  • It also raises the question of how scaleable this model is. I occasionally do advisory work for PE firms (typically: due diligence / value creation planning) and I’ll refer to a recent example. Opportunity to invest in a rapidly growing player in the specific manufacturing space I was brought in for in Asia. There were 20+ PE firms chasing after it. Undoubtely all staffed with very smart people. That points to the competition referred to in my earlier post driving prices up to acquire businesses.
  • Related to that, I’ve consistently been impressed by the PE people I’ve interacted with (also at the UBS event). Very bright, great at pattern recognition across companies, asking sharp questions (unhindered by industry dogma)… but…
    • There’s a limit to the talent available for that work
    • These are typically not the value creators, they are more excelling at selecting great opportunities (and winning the bid). KKR lady was clear: we only acquire great companies at good prices. Well, everybody wants those. And while 80%+ of the small/midcap companies in the world are privately held, vast majority of them are not going to be “great / good” combos. So, there may be a limit to where this model can go.
  • I was also puzzled by them presenting there - this may be ignorance on my side. KKR/CVC are mega firms, they raise funds in the tens of billions. Why the effort to try to get retail money into that? All the hassle for investors who are less patient. I would have expected that the vast majority of the money for them would be from pension funds and a very, very limited number of ultra high net worth individuals (who, I suspect, would not be attending an event like yesterday)? And if I want to enter into this as a retail investors, why not just buy the shares of a PE firm?

All in all, I left thinking:

  • Very interesting
  • PE’s a great model, would love to have the opportunity to take a swing at an exec role in a PE owned firm
  • But probably NOT for me to take 10-20% of my assets to put it in some PE fund, however a good reputation they may have
  • And certainly not interesting in UBS making more money off of me

…the ‘upside’ which these funds presented simply isn’t compelling enough. Would be different if I had 10 billion and buying/selling shares and options trading would just be too much of a hassle.

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Maybe because it is increasingly difficult to cash out (at least this is my understanding after listening to Ben Felix etc.) and they are now turning into retail investors to find the way to exit?

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Perhaps I’m misunderstanding your point.

They are reaching out to retail investors to bring cash into the new funds, those $$$ are invested into companies, those companies are sold, and $$$ is returned to the original investors.

I don’t believe the PE firms have major issues with exit opportunities (i.e. IPO, sale to strategic, sale to another PE firm or even another fund of the existing PE firm). My question is more: why the hassle to get retail investors vs. larger pools of patient cash for their funds from pension funds and ultra-HNWI’s. I am probably missing something. Perhaps the issue is that pension funds etc. are becoming more critical of the cost/return ratio of PE (righfully so, as per the article linked to above also), and PE firms see retail investors as less ‘demanding’?

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I asked ChatGPT and the response was pretty clear and sensible (and further strengthens my thought that this is not a space I should be investing in, aside from perhaps just buying shares or writing options on these kinds of firms):

"Because the institutional channel is getting saturated and slower, while “retail” wealth is a huge underpenetrated growth market with attractive fee economics.

A few key reasons:

1. Pension funds are large, but many are already near their PE allocation limits

Big pensions, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and insurers have been the core LP base for decades. Many already have mature PE programs and may be overallocated because public-market declines and slow PE exits left private assets as a larger share of portfolios than intended. Bain noted that PE fundraising had been under pressure, with fundraising declining for a third straight year in its 2025 report. Private Equity International also reported that global PE fundraising in 2025 fell to the lowest full-year total since 2020.

So the issue is not “pensions are too small.” It is that many are not as incremental a source of new AUM as they used to be.

2. Retail/private wealth is enormous and underpenetrated

When PE firms say “retail,” they usually do not mean tiny Robinhood-style accounts buying buyout funds directly. They mostly mean:

private banks, wirehouses, RIAs, family offices, HNW/UHNW individuals, feeder funds, interval funds, BDCs, ELTIFs, 401(k)-style channels, and semi-liquid evergreen vehicles.

That pool is huge. Blackstone’s private wealth channel reportedly had more than $270 billion in assets in 2025, roughly a quarter of its total AUM at the time. PEI also reported that Blackstone raised $11 billion through private wealth in Q1 2025, up 40% year over year.

3. Retail channels can be better fee businesses

Institutional LPs are sophisticated and concentrated. A giant pension fund writing a $500 million ticket can negotiate hard on fees, co-investment rights, reporting, governance, and side letters.

Wealth-channel money is fragmented and distributed through platforms. That can mean:

higher blended management fees, less fee pressure, more evergreen AUM, more cross-selling, and less dependence on a small number of dominant LPs.

The distribution cost is higher, but the lifetime value of the channel can be very attractive once the platform is built.

4. Diversifying the LP base reduces fundraising risk

If a PE firm depends mostly on 50–100 institutional LPs, a few allocation pauses can hurt a fundraise badly. Adding wealth channels gives the manager a second fundraising engine.

This matters especially now because traditional LPs have been constrained by low distributions. When exits slow, pensions and endowments get less cash back, which means less room to commit to new funds. Bain has emphasized that weak distributions and liquidity constraints have been central issues for PE fundraising.

5. Evergreen retail products create steadier AUM

Traditional PE funds are episodic: raise Fund IX, invest, harvest, raise Fund X. Retail/private-wealth products are often evergreen or semi-liquid, so assets can accumulate continuously.

That is very appealing for public alt managers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Ares, and Blue Owl because public-market investors reward predictable fee-related earnings. A perpetual wealth product can be more like an annuity than a 10-year closed-end fund.

6. PE firms are expanding beyond classic buyout funds

A lot of the retail push is not pure traditional PE. It is private credit, infrastructure, real estate, secondaries, NAV lending, and multi-asset private-markets funds. These can be packaged in ways that feel more suitable for wealth clients: periodic subscriptions, limited redemption windows, income focus, lower minimums, and tax/reporting wrappers.

Private credit has been especially popular because it can offer current yield, though recent redemption pressure in products like Blackstone’s BCRED shows the liquidity mismatch is real. Reuters reported in June 2026 that Blackstone capped withdrawals from its private credit fund after redemption requests rose above the standard threshold.

7. Retail investors are “patient” only if the wrapper manages expectations

Your skepticism is right: retail investors are often less patient than pensions. That is why many products use gates, lockups, quarterly liquidity, tender limits, or redemption caps. The manager wants access to the wealth pool, but not daily mutual-fund liquidity.

The risk is obvious: retail clients may think they own a bond-like or fund-like product, while the underlying assets are illiquid. Redemption caps protect the fund but can damage trust when markets turn.

8. UHNW and family offices are not being ignored

PE firms absolutely still court UHNW investors. The distinction is that UHNW is now part of a broader “private wealth” strategy. Instead of manually raising from a few billionaires, firms want scalable access through platforms such as Morgan Stanley, UBS, iCapital, CAIS, private banks, and RIA networks.

Bottom line

PE firms are going after retail/private wealth not because pensions and UHNW investors are unattractive, but because those channels are increasingly mature, competitive, and allocation-constrained. Private wealth offers a vast, less penetrated pool of capital, often with better fee durability and more scalable evergreen AUM. The trade-off is that retail capital is more reputation-sensitive and can create liquidity-management problems when investors ask for their money back at the same time."

These things always make me think of a company I used to work for (owned by PE, maybe it was not accidental).

When it was time for bonusses, the year end result took three months to calculate, after which they would conclude that, unfortunately, we had missed the result that would lead to bonusses by 2%. Ofcourse, C-Suite had a different bonus structure.

That’s killing for performance culture. I recall working for a very flawed company earlier in my career (20+ years of restructuring) but one thing it was good at was being crystal clear about the variable comp metrics, how people could influence it, and keeping people up to date on performance vs. those metrics.

When it goes a different direction as you indicate - whether vague metrics, definition issues, infrequent communication on performance, etc. - people tend to assume it’s a blackbox and give up (with regard to the bonus).

PE firms have a growing trend of widespread equity issued to (virtually) all employees. This is something I believe to be a VERY good thing (also also this can be gamed). An ‘ownership culture’ with everybody in the same boat - even if some with more comfortable seats than others - is a good thing.

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I fully agree. That above was a bit in the past, maybe they had started with it, but only for C-suite :). But yeah, they need to think about it.

Absolute killing for the performance culture was a performance of one of the partners - the whole company was gathered on short notice for his speech, where he went on that the results were so bad there was barely any money left to pay our salaries. When done, he jumped in his Aston Martin DB9 and drove off.

That moment is about all I remember from that period after 15 years, which tells you enough.

Perhaps relevant, not the least regarding some motivations for UBS

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/how-investor-doubts-halted-swiss-partners-groups-meteoric-rise-2026-06-05/

  • Partners Group halted withdrawals on $8.6 billion fund amid investor concerns over asset valuations

  • It will gate larger U.S. fund as redemption pressures mount, sources say

  • UBS publicly backed Partners Group as firm warned of slower asset growth ahead

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Really does look like they are in search of exit liquidity from retail…

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Please read my prior post on this and clarify - i dont get what you mean with exit liquidity

If the institutional share holders can’t sell their shares, because they are getting gated, bringing in retail money helps alleviate that. As that creates liquidity when retail wants in, the instituations want out and transfer their shares to retail for money.

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Thanks again for the link to that Oxford article. Had the chance to read through it fully and reflect on it today. Very enlightening. Put differently, he rips things apart with facts and good observations. Can’t help but be a bit (more) cynical about PE firms in general, the CVC/KKR presentations, and UBS after reading this. As usual, better to be aware than to ‘believe’ too much.

I’m sure my upcoming call with UBS will be interesting - incl. to see if they disclose the kickbacks they get for pushing PE funds.

Also, it reinforces my belief that pension funds require reform.

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He writes some good articles. As you mentioned, many PE firms have entered the market chasing deals so competition has increased. In the early days up until maybe mid 2010’s this space was more lucractive. I also question the actual ability to improve the operations of a business instead of simply using financial engineering.

What I do find interesting in PE are secondaries, as you sometimes have the opportunity to buy investments at a discount. But you rely on the ability of the manager to access these opportunities & assess the quality.

For some institutional investors I can understand the appeal to have an allocation to PE. Less volatility (but as an actual feature not just volatility laundering the way it gets pitched to retail) and long-term commitments. And the investor has access to large pool of PE firms and resources to do due diligence / select appropriate PE firms.

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I did some work for a portfolio company of a PE firm. the fund allowed us to invest in the fund (not the company) without any fees but the ticket entry was minimum 250K and the lock in was ~5 years, possibly more. Even though I knew them well I still found it risky. Working for a Portfolio company and getting management incentive plan is a better play in my opinion