I’ve redone independently the same calculations taking the last data from the reports of VT, VTI (the Vanguard US-based ETF for the US market) and VEU (the Vanguard US-based ETF for the ex-US market).
For a marginal tax rate of 25% and full recovery of the 15% WHT in the DA-1, I found tax-wise a 0.08% p.a. tax advantage for VT vs VALL. Exactly the same figure as tony calculated.
To the disadvantage of VT, I have to add that you have a Withholding Tax of 15% in the US from all the dividends during this year (let’s say on average mid year), but you get it credited back after you do the tax declaration the year afterwards. This is a money you cannot reinvest in the stock market during roughly 1 year or slightly more, depending on when you receive the DA-1 credit back from the cantonal tax office. With VT you have then an opportunity cost of 1.56% (last dividend yield figure in VT) *15% (WHT)* 7% (assumed stock market performance) * 1 year = 0.02% vs a UCITS-based ETF.
VT has a TER of 0.06% and VALL a TER of 0.07%. Also cnsidering this opportunity cost, the cost & tax advantage of VT is then of 0.07% vs VALL p.a. if you have full recovery of the DA-1.
The breakeven point between VT und VALL is when you just recover back 10% of the 15% WHT in the DA-1 (so when you recover 65% of the paid WHT): then the yearly taxes and costs are the same. I think this is when your mean tax rate calculated by the tax office is 10%.
If you recover 5% of the 15% with the DA-1, VALL has an advantage of 0.08% vs VT.
If you don’t recover anything with DA-1, VALL has an advantage of 0.15% vs VT.
I’ve redone the calculations for marginal tax rates between 15% and 35%, and these advantages just move by +/- 0.01% p.a
Note:
I’ve used a 10.0% L1WHT for the ex-US market for both VT and VALL.
From the VEU financial report, I’ve calculated the WHT and the dividend they had the last half-year, and I found a L1WHT of 10.0% for the ex-US market, exactly the same assumption that tony made. For the L1WHT of the ex-US based part of VALL I’ve assumed the same 10.0%. I think there is still no UCITS-based ETF covering the whole ex-US market (with the exception of the new Vanguard VXUS which just launched so doesn’t have yet any financial report), so I couldn’t easily calculate the real L1WHT for an IE-based ETF. Most of the countries have a similar L1WHT with IE as with the US, so I think the assumption that both ETFs have a similar L1WHT for the ex-US market should roughly hold.