We’re close to the end of Q1, I’m at ~2% below all-time high. I’ll share a little overview for my portfolio and plans.
ASSET ALLOCATION
Asset
Current
Target
Range
Description
Equities
51.5%
~65%
50%-70%
Country-/Region-ETFs
Real Estate
16.5%
~10%
7%-17%
Swiss Funds w. Direct Holdings
Alternatives
7.5%
~10%
7%-17%
Managed Futures ETFs, CAOS
Fixed/Cash
19.5%
~10%
7%-17%
Accounts, Deposits, Notes, Bonds
Bonds
2.5%
~2.5%
0%-5%
15+ Years
Gold
2.5%
~2.5%
0%-5%
Bars / ETFs
[ Target: strategically // Range: tactically ]
Remarks: Still in the multi-year process of increasing equities to its target. If they do well, less rebalancing will be needed. If they don’t, happy to add at better prices. Recently changed the targets/ranges for the diversifiers, which mostly affects MF Trend and Fixed/Cash (required rebalancing is underway).
EQUITY ALLOCATION
Top Markets & Sectors
Market
Current
Target
Sector
Current
Target
US
39%
~48%
Healthcare
14%
~18%
CH
24%
~18%
Technology
14%
~17%
UK
19%
~11%
Financials
18%
~15%
Remarks: Sector “Targets” here basically mean “if I held the respective ETFs at their market’s target weight”.
Do you really need this? The whole position is less than the change of your portfolio in a week or on some days. The yield is probably very low if not negative. Are you betting on decreasing interest rates?
This position is also insignificant. Unless you keep gold as a resource of last resort, but in this case it should be only physical. Some bars, many coins as a semiapocalyptic scenario currency. Sewn inside your vest. Maybe a bullet-proof one.
About 7% will be shifted from stocks to bonds as part of the continued filling of my pension pot.
I normally only look at my actively traded portfolio, which represents 50% of the portfolio. It is interesting as in the portfolio view, gold/commodities represents 10% which seems quite sizeable, but put into the perspective of the whole portfolio, it is only 5%.
While I don’t like how quickly it climbed this year, I think we might be climbing a wall of worry on gold. Interestingly, even with the significant moves last year and this year, there’s not been too much hype about it. I figured the wsb crowd would be all over it.
My gold holdings are ETFs, miners and futures. No physical, but tempted to move some to physical ETFs with custody in Switzerland given what is happening in the US.
I’m not sure about bonds. I think maybe in the end, I’ll hold 5%-10% and re-allocate the rest to either stocks or paying off mortgage debt depending on what mortgage rates look like.
One thing to consider: what currencies are your fixed deposits, cash and bonds in? If you want to gear up for any inflation, you would probably need to adjust.
I expect inflation, as borrowing money to build up the military and fix infrastructure in Europe will lead to that. With EUR or USD, I would have cautioned you. CHF is better, yet you will lose 2% per year, if our national bank is successful with their interventions. Real assets would be better to counter inflation: land, real estate, productive companies, gold.
I’m currently gathering information to build my investment portfolio. Since I prefer not to check on it every week, I’m looking for a solid and simple long-term strategy (25–30 years). Naturally, I may adjust my risk exposure over time as I get older.
The MP portfolio is simple and that is appealing. I really like the idea of holding a global ETF like VT as well as a Swiss ETF in CHF (e.g., replicating the SMI or SPI). However, I’m uncertain about other assets such as bonds (corporate vs. government, short- vs. long-term), commodities, and real estate (REITs). My goal is to lower the risk linked to stock, and I see bonds or real estate as options to pursue it.
When I look at bond performance, I’m not particularly impressed. With the SNB recently lowering interest rates, I don’t see much upside. Maybe I am wrong. One idea I’m considering is treating my 2nd pillar as my fixed income allocation and investing the rest in other asset classes.
As for real estate, it seems more attractive (e.g., SRFCHA or the Swisscanto Real Estate Fund Responsible IFCA). That said, there may be some market risk ahead—it’s hard to believe the upward trend can continue indefinitely.
I’m even less familiar with commodities. Everyone seems to be buying gold lately, and HSBC has raised its price forecast. But is gold really a long-term investment?
Everything in isolation can have drawdowns . Be is real estate, gold, commodities, bonds or stocks. This is reason why some investors use multiple assets to reduce the risk of their portfolio.
However it’s not good to make changes based on recent moves because that tends to end up being a bad move. You need to think of a long term asset allocation based on your risk tolerance
So it has been climbing the wall of worry and gold is over bought. It seems to me we are still at the beginning of the hype cycle and so I haven’t trimmed yet. I’m still waiting for the shoe shine boy to tell me to buy gold. In fact, I even went more speculative by adding gold junior miners and silver miners. We’ll see if silver violently catches up with gold.
I still feel that TINA is still in okay so have opportunistically trimmed here and there to fill pension, but haven’t sold large amounts yet.
I also have my eyes on the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) but the TER of that one seems on the abusive (0.65%) side. Which silver miner ETF did you buy?
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