We’re close to the end of Q1, I’m at ~2% below all-time high. I’ll share a little overview for my portfolio and plans.
ASSET ALLOCATION
Asset
Current
Target
Range
Description
Equities
51.5%
~65%
50%-70%
Country-/Region-ETFs
Real Estate
16.5%
~10%
7%-17%
Swiss Funds w. Direct Holdings
Alternatives
7.5%
~10%
7%-17%
Managed Futures ETFs, CAOS
Fixed/Cash
19.5%
~10%
7%-17%
Accounts, Deposits, Notes, Bonds
Bonds
2.5%
~2.5%
0%-5%
15+ Years
Gold
2.5%
~2.5%
0%-5%
Bars / ETFs
[ Target: strategically // Range: tactically ]
Remarks: Still in the multi-year process of increasing equities to its target. If they do well, less rebalancing will be needed. If they don’t, happy to add at better prices. Recently changed the targets/ranges for the diversifiers, which mostly affects MF Trend and Fixed/Cash (required rebalancing is underway).
EQUITY ALLOCATION
Top Markets & Sectors
Market
Current
Target
Sector
Current
Target
US
39%
~48%
Healthcare
14%
~18%
CH
24%
~18%
Technology
14%
~17%
UK
19%
~11%
Financials
18%
~15%
Remarks: Sector “Targets” here basically mean “if I held the respective ETFs at their market’s target weight”.
Do you really need this? The whole position is less than the change of your portfolio in a week or on some days. The yield is probably very low if not negative. Are you betting on decreasing interest rates?
This position is also insignificant. Unless you keep gold as a resource of last resort, but in this case it should be only physical. Some bars, many coins as a semiapocalyptic scenario currency. Sewn inside your vest. Maybe a bullet-proof one.
About 7% will be shifted from stocks to bonds as part of the continued filling of my pension pot.
I normally only look at my actively traded portfolio, which represents 50% of the portfolio. It is interesting as in the portfolio view, gold/commodities represents 10% which seems quite sizeable, but put into the perspective of the whole portfolio, it is only 5%.
@Dr.PI basically agree - i’ve more or less degraded bonds & gold to non-key diversifiers. but they can still make sense and, for now, i plan to keep the existing, small positions.
re bonds (pfandbriefe) that means: ~1% yield if held to maturity [in ~22 years], ~2% interest per year. if we get negative rates again in the next few years, they could get a nice spike [due to the remaining term], so that i could potentially collect the “juicy” interest [above yield] until then and realize a capital gain [or at least no loss] at the time. otherwise, i’ll pay too much taxes for a yield that could be good, ok or bad for the entire term.
re gold: i’m up ~25% and i don’t really like current prices. but who knows what’s still possible if there’s a crisis, plus the existing position is in physical bars.
While I don’t like how quickly it climbed this year, I think we might be climbing a wall of worry on gold. Interestingly, even with the significant moves last year and this year, there’s not been too much hype about it. I figured the wsb crowd would be all over it.
My gold holdings are ETFs, miners and futures. No physical, but tempted to move some to physical ETFs with custody in Switzerland given what is happening in the US.
I’m not sure about bonds. I think maybe in the end, I’ll hold 5%-10% and re-allocate the rest to either stocks or paying off mortgage debt depending on what mortgage rates look like.
the tactical range for the core asset (equities) allows more under- than overweight. thus, the core diversifiers “require” more upside vs. their strategic targets.
One thing to consider: what currencies are your fixed deposits, cash and bonds in? If you want to gear up for any inflation, you would probably need to adjust.
I expect inflation, as borrowing money to build up the military and fix infrastructure in Europe will lead to that. With EUR or USD, I would have cautioned you. CHF is better, yet you will lose 2% per year, if our national bank is successful with their interventions. Real assets would be better to counter inflation: land, real estate, productive companies, gold.
it’s starting to get spicy, nice. equities now approaching my lower limit of 50%, so i may have to rebalance soon.
i’ve sold a 1kg bar yesterday, so that position has been reduced. gold might still have lots of upside (i’ll take it!), at least it was not a bad timing wrt usd/chf.
still waiting for ibkr to add those MF funds (requested days ago). after that the “alternatives” bucket should be at ~13% (RE ~17.5%, fixed ~17%).
equities is at ~48.5% as of earlier today. i’m in no rush to rebalance that part, will be “forced” to have it at the minimum of 50% by the end of quarter, though (3 months rule).
trimmed three RE positions this morning (for a total of 2.2%), RE now at ~15%. provides me with the necessary cash to get equities (~48.5%) back to 50% within days/weeks, if needed.
btw: just mute the thread, if it’s annoying
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