Market crash around the corner ? Invest into ETFs (VT, VWRL, UBS SMIM) or Bitcoin and Gold now?

With 1k of free cash per month, I would for sure not do a bulk / one-off investment of 150k. Will be able to come down with a recommendation. But first, just wanted to clarify:

  1. Assume you are self-employed (aka no 2nd pillar, beyond the one kept at VIAC)
  2. How is your Pillar 3A currently invested?

Sorry, typo
2nd pillar has the big amount, and i am employed

that will take some time - but lets start with your risk tolerance :slight_smile:

Investment Risk Tolerance Assessment // Personal Financial Planning (missouri.edu)

What Risk Tolerance do you receive here? Please state both the score you get and the text / classification that this equates to


Btw
 mine was 27. Don’t remember the text, think this equated to Medium-High Risk Tollerance or so.

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My results are: 31 points:
„You have an above-average tolerance for risk.“

Side note: I am a thoughtful spender (Mustachian) and investor, but if backed by extensive research and consulting, I am ok with above average aggressive investing.
After all, you evolve anyway and can change decisions if you have to.

What’s the savings rate (savings/salary)?
1000 as absolute amount doesn’t seem that high after that long a career.

With your risk tolerance, I would have thought that you can probably stomach something in between 60% and 80% of Shares. This gives us plenty of opportunities to invest.

If I was you and with your assets, I would probably take the approach where I:

  • Every Month invest 1k in something around 80% Shares / 20% Bonds/Cash. If you feel like:
    “no hassle”: Go to Avadis or Findependent
    “tiny hassle”: Buy a Vanguard Life Strategy ETF like V80A
    “Investment Fun”: Split among 50% VWRL 15% CHSPI, 15% UBS SXI Real Estate Funds and 20% a CHF Hedged Bonds
  • Now and thereafter Every Year
    review your Cash (currently 220k)
    substract a sensible cash cushion (70 to 120k)
    divide the remaining amount into 3; and from there into 12
    add this amount to your monthly investments
    meaning that you in the first year (220 - 80 => 150; /3 => 50k) invest about 4.5k on top every month
  • Review your Pension Funds’ Coverage ratio and whether it allowed for voluntary investments. If so and provided your taxable income was beyond ~80k invest part of your “on-top” investments into your Pension Fund (but as well split the maximum invest you can do as per your pension fund over at least 5 years)
  • Repeat every year

The key question is if you have mental time and energy to focus on investments or not. Do you want to be reminded of this every month / quarter / year or not. If you are a bit “less focused” on finance topics (which is actually a healthy approach; compared to me that is super focused on these things and hence active on boards like this)
 A recurring Payment Order to Findependent or Avadis is still ten times better than a super optimal ETF where you after 2, 3 months forget to do the investments, or question your strategy, constantly deal with complexity and get frustrated. Set and forget investing is the best. So if this post confuses you - just go to the “no hassle” option and every year apply the "what is beyond my safety net of e.g. 80k, divide it by 3 and increase the monthly standing order accordingly).

Beyond this, I would consider selling at least 50% of your BTC. Bitcoin is pure speculation but it has nothing to do with Investment.

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Why not? 1k of savings a month is better than what a majority of swiss households does? This particularly as Fallguy fully invests into the 3rd Pillar and has a fairly healthy second pillar amount already. He is fully set for a good retirement with no financial regrets. Yes, he won’t retire by 40 but in reality who does that anyways? Why does the savings rate matter, the household is financially sound and he only raised the question of how / if / when to invest. I see no need to further optimize an already frugal live.

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All bonds in that ETF are in EUR or EUR-hedged. I wouldn’t recommend that to people paying their expenses (mostly) in CHF.

This is due to part time

once I go back full time
savings will hike up

So what do you recommend ?

I’m not aware of a comparable ETF for CH investors (passive and low fees). The closest equivalent would be the combination of 80% VWRL and 20% AGGS (iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond CHF-hedged).

Probably repeating what many others have already stated (I just skimmed through the comments): it really depends on your stomach (aka psychology)!

My advice in short:

Start with DCA for a while (maybe 3-6 months, YMMV) and if during that period you find out (about yourself) that losses in your tranches (or overall invested money) don’t bother you at all, invest the remaining amount lump sum if you still feel you’re up for this.
The worst that can happen is that we’re entering another fierce bull market and you have a little bit of FOMO for a while.
The best that can happen (IMO) is that you learn about your actual risk tolerance with your own skin in the game and can decide for yourself what investment style is best for you.

My advice at length:

Research seems to indicate that lump sum outperforms DCA, but I believe your own psychology plays a very and even more important role.*

A recent Vanguard paper on cost averaging versus lump sum summarizes this well:

  • "Lump-sum investment strategies beat common cost averaging investment
    strategies two-thirds of the time, according to historical and simulated
    market data.
  • Despite the expectation of lower returns, cost averaging might be considered
    for investors with very high aversion to both risk and losses who might be
    tempted to hold a lump sum entirely in cash.
  • Even without a lump sum to invest, investors can benefit from maximizing their
    time in the market by using retirement account front-loading and withdrawal
    sequence strategies, or simply by not delaying when funds are available for
    investment"

They say that cost averaging is for folks with a “very high aversion to both risk and losses”.

I would qualify that with: it’s one thing to read (or write) a paper that has analyzed a boatload of historical and simulated data and to then conclude that on average you fare better with the lump sum invested; it is an entirely different thing to personally experience being one data point with a the lump sum investment where you’re in the one third camp of doing worse, especially if you do significantly worse and loose say, 20k or 30k of your 150k within a year or two. It shouldn’t matter in the long term, but how will you feel and react?

I consider myself relatively risk tolerant (I for example allocate a significant portion of my portfolio in stock picks), but I would never** have the stomach to do lump sum investing.***

Good luck!


* The research typically analyzes theoratical allocation in lump sum versus cost averaging. It does not look at actual investments that were lump sum versus cost averaging and thus completely factors out psychology or data on when lump sum investors (or cost averaging investors, for that matter) chickened out and sold (or stopped averaging in and sold also and stayed in cash for the money not yet invested).
Actual data on this is messy and doesn’t lend to clean statistical analysis as required for research papers


** Well, if I had insane amounts of money, say fifty or a hundred million, where I’d still be totally fine after taking a 50% hit, maybe I would have the stomach to lump sum invest 
 in reality, I’m not there, and I’m sure if I were there, after an unpleasant lump sum experience just once, I’d avoid it forever.

*** E.g. I kind of had to lump sum invest my second pillar into a FreizĂŒgigkeitsstiftung when I quit my previous job around late 2020. It’s since down about 5% (and was down 11% at its worst). I cannot express adequately how much I hated observing this, even though I know that typically things will work out just fine with my investment horizon of 10-15 years.
In practice, I just hated it and wished I had been able to cost average invest the money myself as I did in my actively managed portfolio, which not only didn’t take a hit in 2022 but was actually up.
Classical loss aversion behaviour 
 to quote Jason Zweig from his Devil’s Financial Dictionary:

LOSS AVERSION, n. Classical economics presumes that people will wager an equal amount for a chance to win $100 or a chance to avoid a $100 loss. After all, either result would leave you $100 better off. Experiments by psychologists, however, have shown that people are loss-averse: Imagine being asked to bet on the toss of a coin. If it comes up tails, you would lose $100. How much would you have to win on heads in order to be willing to take the gamble? The typical person insists on a number between $225 and $250, showing that the pain from each dollar of loss is more than twice as intense as the pleasure from each dollar of gain.
Investors who have been “on a roll” of recent profits often forget how painful losing money is. They will soon be reminded, to their keen regret."

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Thank you very much @TeaGhost for your extensive analysis, really appreciated !

My points here:

  1. I was planning a cash cushion of 50k (btw, additional tax cushion separated from this)
  2. Leaves 173k as investment cash for stocks/ETFs
  3. If I classify 2nd pillar + cash cushion + metals as “Bonds” (pretty secure money), and 3rd pillar via VIAC 100 Global strategy + investment cash + BTC as “Stocks”, I have a ratio of 60% in bonds and 40% in stocks.
  4. With the bogglehead strategy in mind as suggested by HRH @_MP :blush:, suggesting to align the %age of bonds to the persons age (in my case 48% of bonds, since I am 48), I have way more bonds than the potential for stocks.
  5. From this i derive that all the investment cash should go into stock EFTs only, ideally with a low TER and global diversification.

Result:

  • Global ETFs: VWRL or preferably VT (lower TER) plus
  • CH Market ETF: UBS SMIM

@TeaGhost: What do you think about going 100% into these stock ETFs without additional bonds ?

I am pretty motivated to keep track of my finances more than ever before, especially after getting to know this blog :smiley:

Will check out Findependent and Avadis.

Do you have specific experience with one of these ?

Good suggestion - especially to test/learn myself on how I react depending on how the market behaves.

Yes, looks like it


Findependent (and also Avadis) are nice services, but their costs are similar and too high.
At Findependent, quarterly costs are CHF 200 plus initial setup of around 600 (@140k lump or DCA).
This would eat up a significant share of the dividends.
Result: DIY via a broker.

This is what I will do if I were in your position:

DCA your 220k cash cushion over 22 months by investing it every 2 weeks at the same day and the same hour. You will invest 5k every two weeks (or 10k every months).

If you are not really confident with US-domiciled ETF, just go with VWRL. I will also split the 5k investment with 4k in VWRL and 1k in CHSPI (if you want to have a more bias with swiss stocks).

With your 1k monthly saving, put it in BTC if you believe in it. Like this, you will invest all your cushion in the next 2 years and look after 1 year if you can strugle the volatility.

Whats your experience with US domiciled ETFs ? I think the only headaches relate to US estate tax paperwork for the heirs, otherwise I only see advantages (lower TER, higher dividends than VWRL)


Which specific CHSPI products can be recommended here ?

CHSPI (ISIN CH0237935652) is already the product recommended;
https://www.ishares.com/ch/individual/en/products/264107/ishares-spi-ch-fund