Will JPOW chicken out?
Even Bessent is adding to the pressure and calling for a 150bps cut!
I think he should hold firm just to stick it to Trump and others, but suspect he will finally cave and cut by 25bps.
PPI readings give JPOW ammo to keep rates on hold:
Futures market prices in a 95% probability for a 25bps cut (Source)
Just went down to 90.6%. Inflation has arrived baby…and it is here to stay.
Interest goes down and inflation up. Shit, I just wish stocks were a bit cheaper so I could buy a shitton of it on credit. But maybe my wish will come true soon…
Yeah. I’m also tempted to borrow to buy stuff.
85% 
I am standing by my vote that there won’t be a cut. Probably the market will have a minor freak over that, putting some dry powder aside.
I think if it was just JPOW, he would hold, but now that you have more members stacked against him and all the pressure so far, I’m not sure he’ll be able to resist and will cut to avoid breaking unanimity.
Inflation is not going down, tariffs are not going down, interest rate going down should be a sign of concern , isn’t it?
Either because it is driven by unemployment OR by government intervention
Fed is more vulnerable to government bullying as they have a dual mandate instead of a simple inflation target.
There were 2 dissenting votes last time so the unanimity is already broken.