I never buy single stocks, but given the current price of Meta, I am tempted to throw some fun money at it. What do you guys think? Even though I am not a fan of their product (though never tried the AR/VR stuff and metaverse), I think there’s brilliant people working there and they have such a huge customer base that it must be possible to make money out of it.
A recent MKBHD video explained their product vision quite well. If you buy into the metaverse idea, they will likely dominate this space. Is it going to be profitable? Who knows. Is the stock going up? Depends what the general public thinks about the metaverse in the mid term.
Personally, I don’t see it. Then again, I did not believe in self-driving cars either…
1 Like
I see the metaverse as the bitcoin at the very beginning; something vague with a huge potential. The question is when it will explode…
I’m not interested in Meta’s other products and services.
2 Likes
A good option bet IMO
1 Like
Buy some LEAPS, worst case scenario you lose the price paid by contract, best case scenario you buy META at an attractive price and cheaper than it is at the expiring date.
2 Likes
I would wait for a pause in interest rates hikes.
I’ve shared some doubts on the Fundsmith thread (here and here) a while ago and I still stand by that: They don’t have as entrenched a position as Microsoft, Apple or Google.
As for the metaverse, I tend to consider it quite alike to 3D cinema/TV: A recurring fad that will enjoy some hype every ten or fifteen years or so.
There’s some potential in virtual/augmented reality hardware (that Meta also makes). But winners in this market will, if anything, likely be determined by who can provide immersive FPS gaming and pornography best. (So not Meta).
EDIT: I happen to have read today that Zuckerberg controls 54% of voting rights.
6 Likes
Going back to the original question and the comment about valuation:
The stock is arguably cheap (Yahoo currently showing a P/E in the single digits).
What I would suggest is not getting sidetracked by Zuckerberg’s metaverse talk - or focus too much on user numbers of their social networking platforms (Facebook, Instagram) either.
Rather try to put a “price tag”, a valuation on their user tracking and ad network business. If you think that that’s attractively valued, the stock may worth a “value” play.
2 Likes
Exactly. I guess Meta is now a value company 
- I haven’t looked into their finances, but Facebook is passé.
- Facebook is mostly used by older people now. I deactivated my account.
- I think the social media in general are like cigarettes or sweets: addictive and harmful.
- I played Second Life over 10 years ago, Metaverse looks similar, no novelty effect for me.
- It’s hard to say if now is the time for this technology, if it’s mature enough, or will it ever be.
- I would not say that Meta is guaranteed to succeed if only VR proves to be a big thing.
- I don’t want to bet on a future where we sit at home and wear some goggles on our head all day.
- Do you invest in something because you think it’s good for the World?
- Or you invest despite knowing it’s bad? I would be happy to see social media fall apart.
5 Likes
I don’t see it either but a few decades ago probably most people would say the same about TV, PC and mobile phones…
IMO besides the numbers, it all comes down to trusting the vision of Zuck. There is the Meta part and Whatsapp is still pending monetization.
On the numbers part, last quarter was really bad, so be careful when analysing on yearly basis as Q3 is probably more representative of the near future than Q4 last year. Ad spending is falling (see Google results).
I am not a fan of Meta as a company, I dislike their ethics (would be nice to talk to some people working there, there is an office in Zurich and they do cool tech stuff). But I decided to gloss over such opinions of mine, given that I decided to invest on all possible stocks for diversification: I am pretty sure there are stocks in my portfolio which I dislike more than Meta, if I only I had a closer look.
Being honest, I was only thinking of speculating, assuming the price is now below what is “should” be and that in the future it’ll go up again.
Facebook is declining, yes, but is the same true for instagram and whatsapp?
AR/VR has come and gone, I know. But it might finally be mature, and it’d be a huge thing (quite a lot more immersive than SL), though not necessarily building on top the metaverse Meta is working on. People are already hours curved on their phones, that does not make smartphones a bad technology.
1 Like
I think day trading is more about drawing the lines than assuming anything about the price
I know one guy who makes big money by just looking at price charts and drawing lines.
And I think investing in individual stocks should be preceded by thorough research of the stock.
Such speculation, which is just based on a hunch, is doomed to fail. I know this with TSLA. People talk about “growth catalysts” all the time. These things happen, yet the price goes nowhere. It can take a looong time for the market to reflect reality.
1 Like
Sorry to jump into the discussion, i think numbers are up regarding users +3% and the capacity (or the lack of it) to monetize WhatsApp in the future plays an important role. The big issue, as I understood, it’s the spending.
My opinion is that the current price more accurately represents the real value of Meta than previous prices did.
We’ve seen competition like Telegram and Snapchat take a masive bite out of the Whatsapp and FB Messenger market. Sure, people may still use those Meta platforms for some communications, but the critical mass is gone, in my opinion.
Instagram has current value, and can likely pay dividends for another 10 years now that its user base is hitting the 30-50 age bracket - generally the biggest earning/spending years. Facebook has another 5 years or so in the boomer advertising market. I can’t imagine Instagram or Facebook being around in 20 years.
So you pretty much have Meta’s bet on VR. There isn’t tons of competition in this market, but it’s a winner takes all game. The one metaverse which reaches a critical mass first will be THE one. If Meta can pull that off, the value potential would be enormous. But that’s a long-haul bet.
1 Like
It just 3x since I opened this thread…
Even thinking of buying single stocks makes me unhappy.
There was a tip about options, which is a perfect instrument for this kind of gambling bets 
.
I guess I should learn options one day or another.