You’re right and in fact Iran can really be a mess.
But my answer is as idiot as the very real market.
It’s all green and that’s because the POTUS says his magnificent military powered by tom cruise has won the game.
That’s ridiculous indeed. But maybe we’re in the matrix.
I’m hoping that Trump declares victory or the end of the war soon, as I want to take the opportunity to sell while everybody is gung-ho.
But imagine for a moment an alternative universe, where the conflict drags on for months, the drones keep coming and the interceptors have run out, straight is closed to traffic, an LNG carrier which tried to pass was turned into a fireball which deterred further attempts. A tanker leaked oil all over the place. In a panic, strategic reserves are drawn upon, but a timer starts ticking, there are only a few months of oil in reserves and after that things get ugly.
Russia is quickly un-sanctioned, inflation rises as energy input of everything makes prices soar across the board. Instead of talking about rate cuts, rates hike which tank both stocks and bonds. Trump puts pressure on the Fed to cut in spite of everything adding to risks of further inflation and weakening dollar. Economies and stock markets around the world collapse. Ironically, the US perhaps suffers the least out of anyone and profits from LNG and oil exports, domestic production ramps up.
Here we don’t even assume escalation where oil infrastructure is permanently destroyed, or desalination plants are attacked. All this scenario needs is for Iran to keep launching drones. The question is, can the US prevent that?
And then it escalates to a nuclear world war and that’s the very end of everything.
I can’t control it, I’m lucky enough that’s not my daily business at the moment, and I can’t do anything if that occurs in the future.
Investing should be about realism and optimism.
Crises happen. Betting on doom day so what… then you’re rich and it’s the apocalypse, happy now? That’s how I moved away from complicated strategies, that’s not how I want to be and live. Plus, every strategy works well… backtesting previous situations that won’t happen again and if it happens, won’t have the same effect. Even the same covid stuff won’t make the market react the same.
Not saying you can’t be active during unstable times to gain some while hoping for a better future but that’s mostly casino or financial science I don’t have or actions triggered by fear and I don’t want fear to lead my finances or anything else.
No.
Yesterday I bought some CHSPI to get closer to my target of 1000 CHSPI shares. If it drops further, I’ll buy some more.
It’s not about controlling or doing anything about events int the middle east: simply adapting to evolving probabilities.
If clouds appear in the sky, I can’t control the rain, but maybe it increases my desire to take an umbrella with me.
I agree with the first part of your sentence.
Umbrella: am I Michael Burry? Nope.
YMMV.
I’m trying hard to agree with the second part, for my sanity 
Begs the question though, and then what? I imagine paying into 2nd pillar, mortgage, pre-paying taxes?
Well, I managed to end up with 15% margin debt after getting a bit carried away with buying SAAS companies, so I have plenty of margin and mortgage debt to pay off.
I could just also spend it, or re-invest it if conditions improve.
Like there’s no tomorrow. That’s great apocalypse hedging, 
agree 
Mines. A few hours ago war ended (soon). Then petrol was transported, safely with escort (official fake news…).
Now the straight is actually becoming a minefield.
Ok give me some pills to wake up from the matrix.
President Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon, “If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!”
I’m getting images of a little boy stamping his feet and throwing a temper tantrum.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Iran hasn’t even laid any mines yet and people are losing their shit. US didn’t even manage to control the narrative for a day.
It doesn’t stop when the US wants it to stop. It stops when Iran wants it to stop. I’ve seen estimates that Iran can produce 10k drones per month. How long until we reach the tipping point where the penny drops that a longer conflict is in Iran’s favour. Maybe this pushes US to take extreme measures such as hitting desalination plants, but then this would likely cause a tit for tat response.
The worst, I would say, is the admission that he has no intelligence on the situation. You cannot conduct a war like that. And the markets still trust this guy and react on his words…
I missed the rest of Trump’s post which was even more funny:
If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! Additionally, we are using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers to permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait. They will be dealt with quickly and violently. BEWARE! President DONALD J. TRUMP
8 minutes later he posted:
I am pleased to report that within the last few hours, we have hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships, with more to follow! President DONALD J. TRUMP
It’s ok, it’ll all be fine in ~3 years.
What did I change? The plans for my holidays.
I wanted to visit Iran soonish. People there seems supernice. I have a friend who visited it and confirmed.
Changing investment plans? I’ve already slightly changed them and I am 100%unhappy about it. So I think I should shut up and try to distract me with my micro-fun-portfolio (micro the portfolio, not the fun).
What I know is that if interest rates rise in US, AI bubble will burst
How can Iran produce this many drines? Where do they get the components from? Especially the electronics. China? Shouldn‘t China try their best to embargo that?
I don’t think you can reasonably prevent a country from getting components (that are mostly primarily civilian use) in enough quantities to be dangerous. Even tens of drones is probably enough to threaten most tankers.
(Also pre-closure of Hormuz, I don’t see why China would be embargoing Iran?)
