They can put a lot more chaos on everyone else by putting in an oil export ban.
1 Like
Seeing everything we have seen so far, if US destroys Iran infrastructure, I don’t see Europe doing anything of significance except some hard worded speeches.
In addition , Europe cannot do anything anyways- Europe depends on US energy, payment systems, digital infrastructure and military weapons. So most likely there will be an attempt to rationalise the US actions.
China, Brazil and India might make a dent but I don’t think it’s in their interest to meddle in war between three terror states
Having said all of this - I wonder what is the difference between Ukraine war and Iran war. Both are wars of choice , both are wars to demonstrate regional supremacy and both are mainly driven be ego of few men
Go figure.
Britain Reinforces That U.S. Cannot Use British Bases for Attacks on Iran
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/britain-iran-bases.html
Multiple B-52 aircraft were seen departing from RAF Fairford, with others reportedly fueled and positioned on the tarmac before takeoff.
Aaand once again
At least this time the whole world is thankful for it.
Unfortunately Israel is not part of the cease…
The worst thing now is,
He can claim “You see, my tac(o)tics work, the cause justifies the way”,
And not be sent to court or therapy.
4 Likes
I am not able to get the details of the ceasefire plan. But what is being reported is that all sanctions will be removed against Iran and strait of Hormuz will become a paid transit. It’s not clear what US got but most likely a promise to stop nuclear program.
This cannot be true because this means US started a war and then end up with what Iran was offering before the war + creating a Hormuz fee which never existed.
4 Likes
That’s just the art of the deal. 
8 Likes
Afaiu that’s the 10 point plan from Iran, which is a long term negotiations starting point but not part of the current ceasefire.
Current ceasefire seems to mostly be open the straight vs no more military action.
1 Like
Its a performative war for the benefit of us voters
I see. So this 10 point plan is only about 2 weeks and during these 2 weeks US will stop fighting and Iran/Oman will charge 2 million per ship.
Got it
No. The 10 points plan doesn’t apply. During 2 weeks, ships can pass the strait of Hormuz and the US won’t conduct bombing or attacks on Iran.
They’re meant to use that time to negociate a permanent end to the war, for which the starting point is the 10 points plan, which was crafted by Iran.
Hard to know what an actual end of the war negociated deal would look like, especially with Netanyahu still in the picture.
1 Like
So is this big correction now over?
Potentially, but the deal is so bad for the US, I can’t imagine them signing up for it as-is. But I think they can get to a watered-down version that will be acceptable to both Iran and US.
But however, they try to sell, it this is an embarrassing strategic defeat for the US.
The questions I have are: 1. what happens after these two weeks? and 2. what will be the consequences of whatever happened until now for the global economy? I don’t have the answers unfortunately.
I’m also curious as to how Israel will react, they already stated that they don’t want to stop attacking Lebanon. Plus they were broadly seen as being responsible for the current and previous attacks on Iran, both timed to spoil talks between Iran and US so I wonder whether they will try again to prevent the 2 week ceasefire becoming permanent.
But they are in a bad position as Trump wants out and if Netanyahu tries to spoil this, then US may not go along for the ride this time.
3 Likes
Nobody nows, things might deteriorate again anytime but the world will move on eventually.
At least today I think I saw the biggest positive daily P&L change ever in my portfolio ever. Missing out on massive upwards spikes like this (by “keeping dry powder” or wait till things have improved before investing) can ruin the entire annual return profile.
I just build on the historic reality that markets will go up longterm (unless the world as we know it ends). While “Iran (might) change some things” in the markets, I doubt it will change this fundamental trajectory long term. Thats why I stopped trying to time the market in any way, reacting on events like this and just stay invested in a strategy I can stick to for longterm.
A fear I have in the back of my mind is whether this ends up with another Trump pump and dump and in 2 weeks we start the cycle again.
I think not this time as we seemed to see Trump genuinely panicked as events spiralled out of his control and I hope he doesn’t want to try that again.
Still, we have 3 players and a lot can go wrong in 2 weeks, so while I am hopeful, I’m only cautiously hopeful.
Precisely. One party in particular doesn’t seem to be too happy:
Israeli officials are concerned about the temporary ceasefire agreement the US has reached with Iran, an Israeli source familiar with the matter said.
The source said Israel will abide by the ceasefire, following US President Donald Trump’s lead.
But Israel is doing so reluctantly: Israel still has more targets on its list and more goals it would like to achieve through military action in Iran, the source said. …
It’s just buying enough time to get his comrades (and our Phil) sell before the next megadrop.
1 Like
Timing was a bit annoying, I just got back home from holidays and was hoping to use the high dollar to buy more gold and CHF but it already gained a lot overnight.
On the plus side, I have a mortgage coming up for renewal and maybe the rates will ease a bit.
1 Like
A question remains as to what will happen if Israel continues to attack Lebanon despite Iran saying that this should be part of the ceasefire.
Maybe in 2 weeks Iran can repair a lot of tunnels and launch sites to be able to launch at a rapid cadence again…