For how long have you been investing in equities?
This poll is anonymous unless you choose to comment.
- <1 year
- in my second year
- in my third year
- 4-6 years
- 7-10 years
- 10-15 years
- 15-20 years
- More than 20 years
0
voters
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Sorry to the first person to have participated, I had to fix the > 20 yrs option and your vote got lost. You should be able to vote again 
Okay, a solid 50% in the 4-6 year range so far. Interesting
I think after 20 years people reach Zen stage, they couldnât care less whatâs going on because they know how to deal with all these moves
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Total experience in the stock market: 20+ years.
Investing experience: just about 13 years.
Wandered through the entire Gaussian curve in that 20 year time period, too. 
I think the ârational theoryâ can be learned within a few years, but finding the psychological space where I feel totally mostly comfortable with my investment style took me another few years (and I thankfully had the tailwind of COVID19 accelerate this phase).
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45 years more or less, started quiet young. Took out everything 28 years ago to buy a house in Switzerland and had to start building wealth slowly again. 12 years ago I found that my risk profile would allow way more risk for my pension money, so I took out my 2nd and 3rd pillar and invested it in the stock (and first bond) markets. I do not invest in bonds any longer, not even junk bonds. Debt has a state guarantee to lose value and the diversification effect fades away with correlationsâŠ
That was a very good idea, even if I âhadâ to stop working and live for some time in a country far away to comply with the idiotic Swiss pension laws.
I probably reached âZenâ status by now, but just because all my decisions are completely mechanical. That helps, especially in bear markets. Every decision I need to make was made already probably a decade ago and I therefore am nothing else than a robot, executing my plan.
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Your curve is missing the far right tail and youâd be surprised whatâs hidden there! 
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I have invested in 2012 after buying my flat in France.
I was reading lots of articles/videos about day and Swing trading. I made few nice profits gain confident and quickly lost 10k.
It kick me in the teeth and stop investing in equities until 2016 while stashing all in cash, French life insurance and other securities.
I have resumed with ETFs investment on 3 brokers.
I am still doing 13% sock picking investment on small caps but sâil didnât learn my lesson to stop it.
Investing since 2001 - which was a great year to start investing 
its scary that most folks here have <= 6 years of experiemce. Meaning that they donât have any experience with a bear market⊠at the Moment, I think we are in the early 2007 - feels pretty much the same, probably just 3 months behind.
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True, in with the âbarely 4 years inâ crowd myself. What gives you 2007 feels though? Not challenging but valuing this experience because I donât have it, just trying to understand. Itâs the stuff us neophytes probably read about but never felt: the dead cat bounces, the fear and greed etc.
Now as I think about it, just realize that my statement was wrong by a year. In Spring 2007, everyone was expecting a crash. Strange news about Mortgage Markets. No one really took it too serious, there was a sentiment of âhey, its time to buy defensive stocksâ. There was a bit of up and down but nothing material happened. I actually felt like I made a few bargains.
Then in Jan 2008, we had a 10% drop and the sentiment back then was that this was it. People talked about buying on discount. The expectation of the crash to many people felt like fulfilled - the crash had already happened. Institutional money became very defensive but the general mood was not much impressed.
At the same time, there was more and more uncertainity from institutionals and slowly, the first countries drifted off in recession. The climate on the shopfloors slowly changed in Q2 2008 - but still, from an Investment point of view, the non institutionals at least remained somewhat noneventish. So what happened, some smart money left the table, but most people were completely ignorant of the risks that piled up, even though they became clearly visible. Ignorance is probably the right word⊠we are a bit in a similar situation than like in H1 2008, probably just 2-3 months behindâŠ
If the same pattern follows, we will have first recession reports in Q2, and first major companies with big problems in Q3. Then the question remains if we just have a crash or another systemic Event like in 2008/9
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Some (FASTgraphs) S&P 500 perspective.
Peak of 2007 to now:
Peak of 2007 to COVID19 low:
Translation: given a multi decade time horizon, Just Keep Buying
.*
* Great marketing speek for what is also known as Dollar Cost Averaging.
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Germany is in recession since 2 years, soon maybe even 3. US recession wouldnât surprise me.
What major companies could have problems (excluding financials), curious about the word âmajorâ, as large/established businesses (what I consider as major) are usually in ok/good condition.
Thatâs what a friend of mine whoâs actually pulled all his investments into UK Gilts (bonds) since late last year has been saying, that the worst is yet to come once real problems show up. Intuitively and without experience I too want to see what itâll be like in Q2, Q3. You said smart money left the table - what smart money, though? You mean what can be tracked from SEC filings?
Edit: heâs not exactly a noob hack, has been investing since 2007, works in an investment bank and is an economist by training
To play the devilâs advocate, that worked out nicely when we had years of ZIRP and also insane amounts of QE to give us massive monetary stimulus.
Are we going to have another decade of ZIRP. Maybe.
Similar amounts of QE as before? Iâm not sure we can.
Not an economist, merely an amateur-in-self-training, however both ZIRP (especially) and QE feel like strategic nukes a central bank can use, not for everyday or long-term use. Further gut feelings: they could lead to really stupid behaviours being internalised in both individuals and institutions.
see 2008-today.
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In fact you have an investment doctrine and you do not need to think about it, just apply the rules.
What do you mean with: I âhadâ to stop working and live for some time in a country far away to comply with the idiotic Swiss pension laws.
Well, the market (as in the S&P 500) was even undervalued occasionally (2010 through 2012) during the 2008-today time period.
Admittedly, it seems way overvalued now even after the recent correction and compared to âjustâ the normal valution (blue line) over the depicted time period. And itâs only been at or over itâs current valuation (smoothed black line) roughly the past 12 months and very rarely, but occasionally, looking back until 2008.
But I was anyhow never advocating buying the market. 
Also, as mentioned elsewhere, macro forecasts are for people with a reliable crystal ball. I donât have one.
I was too young to take out the money, so I stopped working and went to live in a country far away.
They should lower the possible take-out age to 40 or so⊠after all it is your money.