Introducing me...and why I don't like FIRE

So, about time I made this post too.

I’m originally from Greece, biochemist by training, former academic, current consultant for 11 years and counting. Did my studies and failed academic “career” from 2000-2012 in the UK until my research fund dried out and long-term relationship ended, so without options or desire other than to return to Greece I returned, finished my mandatory military service and was planning to weigh up any opportunities. Luck had it that I found a wonderful UK-based healthcare consultancy which happened to have a Greek boss, and office there. Things were looking great, had found my partner, planning to marry, renovated our flat until disaster struck in Jan 2015 and the crazy left wing came to power. Luckily they didn’t have the guts to go really crazy, perhaps they knew they would be the first to be strung up and hanged if people’s lives were really disrupted. The issue is this broke any confidence I ever had in the country and made it a goal to look for a good opportunity to eff off and create a solid base which wouldn’t and couldn’t be shaken by politics.

I had an investing bug on and off for years, in the UK I’d made an ISA which had done really well but that money was used to renovate our flat in Athens. The real trigger was twofold, first a good friend of mine from the UK, let’s call him Bertrand, had some switch go off in his brain and he became obsessive with optimization and FIRE. He would go endlessly about how time is money, and money is freedom, points I agree on. What I didn’t like, and ended up badly, was that he systematically eliminated any and every cost from his life, down to taking the bus to go for a coffee. More importantly he eliminated any social interaction which wasn’t on the phone. “This is costing me time, it’s bleeding my time on earth away”, he used to say.

The second trigger, the main one, is that I ran the numbers on my Greek state pension and the private pension I’d put in place and figured out that the first was a Ponzi scheme, gift to current retirees, many of whom lived, worked and retired in a far easier time than me, and the second was a gift to the insurance company - essentially they promised to give my money back after many years. Really.

These thoughts coincided with my beloved UK going off and doing its Brexit thing. I was actually over there looking at flats to rent, keeping my job but taking it there, however had an obnoxious 20-something estate agent disrespecting my wife, who is ex-EU, and talking to her like she’s a destitute illegal migrant right in her face, with me there. Obviously resisted the urge to rearrange his facial geometry, but this was the trigger to say a big “eff off to y’all”. So I had to weigh up options again and Switzerland came up (I also seriously looked at Canada, Australia, Germany and the US too), ticking all the boxes, so we moved here 3 years ago.

Back to investments, by about 2019 my friend Bertrand had decided ETFs are way too slow for his liking, and was edging me to do crypto trading with him but I resisted. Then COVID came, we talked at length about it being an opportunity, and got our scientific minds together to look at which companies stood to create a vaccine for COVID, we made a shortlist but I chickened to put what little money I had left. Greece had changed government but what if the loony left came back? Having lived through capital controls, standing in the burning sun for 60 EUR/day for months I wasn’t about to lock money in, while still being in Greece. The kicker is that out of 10 companies in our shortlist, we’d captured 5 which DID make a COVID vaccine, and their stocks soared. I didn’t invest, my friend did.

At 2021, and this is the real turning point for my friend, he’d been pilling everything - including his father in law’s wedding gift of a Rolex watch - in crypto for a good 5 years, since the 2017 bull run and crash (“learn in your first bull run, retire in the second”, he used to say), he made millions, quit his highly successful and promising academic career (made full professor by 39) and fucked off to somewhere in the south of the UK by the sea, which he wouldn’t disclose in case people came to kidnap him or his wife for money. The guy’s sanity unraveled, became highly paranoid, erratic, obnoxious (“I go to the supermarket and see the cattle, the slaves, you’re a slave too, I am trying to free you but you won’t listen, they don’t know what I am, I look like a bum but have millions”). We kept very regular contact via emails (he didn’t have a phone because…reasons) until one time he went missing for a while around autumn 2023, this wasn’t uncommon, until his wife sent me a message that he’d killed himself. Tragic story. That’s why I am suspicious of FIRE and hyper-optimizers. FIRE intensified preexisting mental health issues, I understand that, I am not blaming FIRE, just can’t like it.

Back to investing, my parents are wonderful, highly educated people but awful at money management. My mother is pathologically averse to risk, my father is pathologically averse to saving (“I won’t make a rich corpse”, “burial shrouds have no pockets”, he’s said as long as I remember him!). He’s been great at making money, and even better at spending it. “Your father knows to enjoy better than anyone I’ve ever met”, my wife says. So I had sketchy examples, it’s fine, I’ll make sure my kids know!
Coming to CH meant I could finally do some serious investing, pedal to the metal for 2 years saving 30-40% of my monthly salary (with 2 kids and wife who doesn’t work, yet), a big pile gathered, now I have consciously eased off the gas and feeling fine overall. I’m mostly here for the banter, though I do like this forum and people in it!

Edits:

  1. Leaning towards receiving - but not chasing - dividends because I need the mental/emotional boost
  2. People in Greece are rightly scared of the stockmarket, the Greek stockmarket had two spectacular bubbles in a row, some few made crazy money, many lost everything. What’s even worse is that at the time insider trading was essentially legal, there were zillions of “advisors” using high-pressure sales tactics similar to the Wolf of Wall Street, they made their cuts, people got shafted. Essentially anyone who put money in the Greek stockmarket from 1998 to about 2012 is unlikely to ever get their money back. It was the second bubble which really cleaned people up, including those poor suckers who tried to make up their losses, and those who let FOMO from missing the first bubble reel them in. Of course diversification, risk adjusted returns etc etc are concepts which stand the test of time, but this is the 90s, people had no easy access to information, and there were screens showing stock tickers in literally every coffee place in every last goat village of the country. That plus predatory salespeople. It was a slaughter of epic scale.

  1. Interestingly, thinking back I see that if I had the ears there have been people here and there who said words of wisdom, like my best friend’s father: “I went into the stockmarket when it was 100 points, don’t care if it went to 6000 and then down to 1000, because I went in at 100 points!” (Jack Bogle’s staying the course message, delivered by a guy who didn’t speak a foreign language and never travelled), I was too young and naive to understand at the time, but do understand now. Edit: I remember now, mid 90s when the stock mania was burning hot in Greece, I asked my dad about it, he said “there’s a saying in Wall Street that when the shoeshine boy gives stock recommendations it’s time to run, these here (the gents in his village’s square/coffee house/butcher/barbershop talking stocks 24/7) are the shoeshine boys of today”.
  2. I’m allergic to real estate
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That’s quite a story, thanks for sharing!
Hope things go smooth in the coming years for you.

Can relate to the ‘not hardcore’ FIRE part. I still like this forum since it contains a good mix of people and I learn lots of things even if I wouldn’t copy each strategy 1to1.

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Indeed, what a story!


Totally irrelevant side question, and I’m not trying to derail your post, but …

… So, since you chose this as your avatar pic …
image
… can you recommend the Prix Garantie feta?

My wife had a native Greek colleague at her former job who would swear that this was the best feta available compared to all other options, premium or not, at both Migros and Coop.

(of course no contest to feta available in Greece)

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you are a great storyteller and I bet a fun guy to be around. Thanks for sharing.

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Funnily enough, yes. If you have an Alima chain nearby you can dry Dodoni feta which is superior.

@kane cheers, it’s more of a download than structured story, usually I become pedantic about grammar and structure but thanks again! It’s funny, for a fairly strongly introvert I usually can strike up a conversation about more or less anything with more or less anyone - that helped a ton in the army where you’re put in with random people and need to spend endless boring hours together, possibly a side effect of being in places where communication is a big deal (academia, consulting) for a good 20 years, also having a good memory helps too :slight_smile:

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Nice background story, thank you for sharing!

Btw - googled MSCI Greece. Impressive development, particularely when we see where current valuation (PE, PB) still stands. Probably a good example to argue why the benefit of a home bias heavily depends on where you came from:
https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/72fb4a0d-117d-48fd-852c-b8bddb18a4a6

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Yikes!

Flatliner.

AFAIR, Greece is the only country so far that was kicked from developed to emerging markets (MSCI).

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Depends, I haven’t and won’t put a single EUR, except perhaps one company:

The banks are piss poor banks, their CDs don’t even match interest rates, their mutual funds “guarantee” 3% annual and then you read the fine print and see 2% entry cost, 1.8% TER. I even managed to find mutual funds with 4% TER in 2024!!! They shill shit products like corporate bonds that don’t match short term treasury notes (I suspect there’s some…olive oil flowing…somewhere), they STILL have predatory advisors, and are basically a state-sponsored oligopoly, providing terrible services compared with banks from the civilised world.

Edit: the positive sign is that there’s a small but growing personal finance community online which seems to be very well-informed and sensible and doesn’t fall for these vultures. There are some quality content creators too.

The (formerly) state telecoms and power company were deep deep in the shit, the power company was somehow turned around by a very smart guy, but their practices are again pretty terrible (e.g., once the war in Ukraine started they retroactively applied the new cost of oil and gas to people’s bills, which quadrupled overnight, I remember telling my dad “they’re charging you for all the gas you’ve already burnt with price X, price 4X?”). That’s what Greece is like, I got Swiss number plates for my car on the 30th of December, the road tax was for exactly 1 day, the same car was bought in Greece in November and I had to pay road tax for the whole year which I never drove.

METLEN is the one Greek company I’d ever invest in, maybe @Your_Full_Name can do his FASTgraph magic and tell us :slight_smile:

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TL;DR: Looks interesting.

I trimmed the FASTgraph to the period starting in/after the Great Financial Crisis.

Things I like:

  • earnings yield* is currently almost a whopping 14%!
  • nice and growing dividend, and – equally important – their payout ratio** was at a healthy 27% last year and is expected to be at a still healthy 35% for this financial year
  • not that many analysts covering the stock, but the expected earnings (estimated by the analysts) have been going up compared to analyst earnings predictions 3 or 6 months ago*** — and perhaps most importantly for this particular argument: earnings are much easier to forecast than price targets
  • if the stock returned to its normal* P/E multiple of 13, you could expect a 130% total rate of return by the end of 2026 … not too shabby, even for me :wink:

Things I don’t like:

  • the below-investment-grade credit rating (S&P: BB+)
  • I guess the market, or rather, your description of the market and your experience …?
  • 40% long term debt outstanding – doesn’t need to be a death spell, but I’d prefer lower debt. I would check this out further, see one of the items below

Things I would do next if I were considering to invest in this company:

  • look at their equivalent of a 10K (SEC filing if they were listed in the US)
  • in particular look at their debt maturity schedule, i.e. when their next tranches of debt expire, what interest they paid on their expiring debt, and what interest they’ll likely have to pay on renewing that debt if they can’t pay it down

Summary:

After this amount of research I’d rate this as a speculative buy.

If this encourages anyone to start a position – as one of my unsung investment heroes, Harley Bassman – phrases it: “Sizing is more important than entry level”.
Manage your risk.

I for one have added this company to my “eternal” watchlist. :slight_smile:


* Earnings yield: if you bought the entire company for its current price, you would make (an expected) 14% in profits on the money paid.
** Payout ratio: percentage of earnings paid out as dividends.
***

*** Normal multiple: the P/E multiple the market has historically given this company, averaged over the chosen period of time, here: since Dec 31 2008.

Cheers, you see all this post was was a chance to sneak in you FASTgraphing a company I have my sights on :stuck_out_tongue:

No, kidding of course! They seem to be poised for plenty more growth, both domestically and abroad and despite being an old company it doesn’t…smell stale for some reason. They have a very good reputation with a bunch of friends working in finance in Greece. Yes, I understand this is the prototypical “a friend told me…”.

Don’t you think the payout ratio jumping 8% in a year is too much? I admit I’m not tracking any company’s payout ratio progression, but you may recall I’d noted the payout ratio of J&J going from 30% to 60% over the period of 30 years. Of course apples and olives but still :slight_smile:

Regarding the market, I wouldn’t hold my breath for a second that the corruption has gone away, far from it, then again data are unlikely to be very tamperable. I believe the pumps and dumps of the 90s and legal insider trading have gone away for good, but I am fully aware the predatory advisors never went anywhere.

Regarding some of the other names: OPAP, which is currently a darling with some people due to their high dividends, I find distasteful because it’s gambling. I don’t have many qualms overall, it’s just not a sign of a healthy society in my opinion. They have an office in every corner of every city so how much more growth could they have (don’t FASTgraph it!).

Motor Oil is owned by the richest and most powerful family in the country, in general oil refining is among our biggest exports, believe it or not. They will probably be around forever because they have more money and power than anyone, they will most likely follow oil as a whole. These people don’t look SO rich on paper (the patriarch is estimated to be worth 2.5bn) but in the country they are basically gods. They are oligarchs with deep roots in oil, shipping, media, sports. They aren’t going anywhere!

JUMBO is another funky one. They have MASSIVE retail stores selling more or less anything you can imagine for very cheap. All their stuff is from China, they are everywhere in the country and expanding in the Balkans. It’d be dishonest of me to say “JUMBO is bad, but Costco is good”, because they’re the same thing, more or less. I just don’t like their stores and how crazy people get about the “opportunity” to haul a truckload of stuff out for little money. Again a sign of unhealthy society, I take good care to get quality for myself, so I may not buy things often but when I do they tend to be among the best there is. I think people who stuff their cars with stuff are in fact trying to stuff some black hole in their souls!

As I said I wouldn’t touch the banks or power/telecom with a ten foot pole.

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I feel I don’t really have enough experience to make a judgment on this one.

Also, the expected payout is just a guestimate by the analysts. Maybe the company will freeze the dividend or raise by a cent or so. It’s really hard to say given their relatively short history of paying out and raising dividends significantly.

Honestly, though, given they expect to increase earnings by 7% this financial year an expected dividend increase in the same magnitude does not seem extraordinary?

When compared to behemoths – admittedly much stabler and much longer established businesses – like Johnson&Johnson (payout ratio currently 47.4%, expected 47.5%) or Altria (77.6%/78.4%) or Zurich Insurances (board promised dividend of 75% of profits) the less than 50% payout seems fine?

In fact, that’s what I’ll stick with: below 50% payout is just fine.

Hopefully the company can allocate the remaining capital better than what they pay out to me, but if not, I’ll have received some of the earnings as cash, and I can decide for myself whether to reinvest into this company or some other company or whether I need the cash to fund my dinner. :wink:

Speaking of which … we have an Alima market – thanks for your pointer! – within a couple of kilometers, but for a just now quick shopping run inspired by this thread Coop was closer, hence …

The tomatoes are even garden sourced (AOC Zurich) and I additionally snuck in a quarter bell pepper (not depicted).

καλή όρεξη (?)

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Enjoy! These tomatoes look amazing, the kind of tomatoes big supermarkets wouldn’t sell because they are not perfectly identical and perfectly tasteless :slight_smile:

Καλη ορεξη to you!

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I’m a big fan of natural resources stocks and would like a recession to bring the prices down so I can buy them cheaply!

I believe you you would have done very well if you bought Greek debt during the crisis.

Our creditors did that, they sold the debt they themselves guaranteed, then let it reach a point of near failure to drop in price and rebought it. Politicians both in Greece and Europe hailed this “deal” as great. I can say a lot more but better not. Great thing is it set me in motion to leave :wink:

Thank you for this most interesting read!

When I was a child we went on vacation in Greece (mainly Kreta) multiple times, always loved the food and nature there, but I’d imagine the current economic situation to be quite hard on people.

I always have at least on pack of Hotos in the fridge, but will give Dodoni a try if I happen upon it.

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It’s odd, the current economic situation is actually on the up and up for years, but prices are skyrocketing to the point it becomes noticeable even with a Swiss salary.

Food, energy and housing are absurdly expensive, where the numbers shouldn’t add up but somehow there’s a ton of new development everywhere. It’s a double edged sword, these developments improve the place but also squeeze out the locals, same as in many other places like Barcelona.

The production model is not good, in the last 2-3 years there’s been an insane and obnoxious boom of tourism and hospitality, even moreso than before, to the point that prices have become prohibitive for the locals…who’re often the same locals jacking up the prices in the first place.

I have a friend working in ultra high-end tourism who tells me that bookings are down 40% this year in his sector, and up by some crazy % in “low quality” tourism. He says there are places which need to charge 1500/day to BREAK EVEN and are forced to “kill” rooms for 500/day just so there are…people to show on…instagram stories.

My disappointment is that when it comes to services and hospitality Greeks are good, competent, I believe it’s the same transferable skills which can be used in any sort of provision of services (accounting, programming, project management, logistics), with much higher added value than coffees, meals and rooms, and more sustainable. Perhaps people should also consider climate change…

Ultimately, I believe the place is turning into something of extremes, the middle class is squeezed, the rich are becoming ultra rich, the poorer struggle a lot. The place doesn’t seem to know what it WANTS TO BE. Does it want to be a playground for tourists? It could still do that and also work on other fields, as there are many skilled and competent people there, despite having lost 500-700,000 young people with university degrees from 2010-2020. The govt put in place a scheme to attract talent back, -50% tax for x years, but people don’t seem to be biting. I think many are on my wavelength “we’ll make our money abroad and come back when we feel 1000% safe, if at all”.

There were tons of rich vultures ready to be greedy when others are fearful, who were drooling at the thought of a default in ~2010-2015 to swoop in with their EUR/USD/GBP/CHF and buy everything. It didn’t quite work out for them, but still huge numbers of properties changed hands for little back then, and are in the process of trying to cash out now.

Sorry for the rambling rant, I just came back from holiday so these thoughts are still fresh!

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I met a number of well educated Greeks fresh out of university working in the Swiss financial services sector, and have seen a ton of CV’s of people applying for jobs here. It’s a shame these guys feel compelled to leave.

Ah well, shame or not I don’t know. The place can feel stifling, at some point I asked myself “Why would I stay, is good food and comfort of owning a flat and having friends and family worth an uncertain future? Do I not have the ability and will to do better?”.

The way I have come to see it is, if people behave badly to one another, tolerate or even use corruption, accept terrible practices, re-elect terrible politicians, tolerate a society where the loudest asshole wins…they LIKE it that way or they’d gave done something to change it, and if they don’t like it and don’t try to change it then they deserve it. I mean simply a case of “don’t shit where you sleep”, even my dog is smarter than that. And here’s a picture, he’s lovely!

Look at CH, the social contract seems to work, maybe I am still a naive foreigner but I’ve lost count of how many times I see clearly expensive deliveries being left outside my building and not touched for hours, sometimes days. Or bicycles, grills etc. Or driving, foreigners complain that driving in CH is hard (it’s not), that they get fines all the time (never got one so far). That’s it, so many things work well here that trump the terrible food :wink: I do miss my friends, that’s true.

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