This is all just noise. -0.5%?. This crazy rally deserves a far bigger correction.
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Of course itâs noise, I am just saying that the timing of the news and the content is just ridiculous, and it does have some short term effect on the market, also if itâs just noise. I donât get nervous about it, I just follow news and see what is happening. Something like Corona or Sars will come again in the future.
What I mean is that they write in the news, we have a NEW METHOD therefore we can detect it better, therefore we have more patients now. Goldstandard does not mean that it works good, it just means they donât have anything better. So, if they would have a new CT method, and therefore they get better images to find the effect of the virus on the lungs, we would read about it in a scientific journal and not on global news portals.
âNewâ probably as in applied to this specific purpose, as opposed to the one theyâve been using so far; not new as in newly discovered method in science.
which specific purpose do you mean? detecting the corona virus? Let me show what I find in google using the words "comparison CT of lung healthy and influenca.
Article published in âEgyptian Journal of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine from 2016â (no comment on the quality of that journal)
I am not a doctor nor do i research in this field. All they show i some CT image of a 62-year old male with H1N1 virus (swine ifluenza). And then they report Results!
But no quantification of the images (volume of lungs, etc.). Then I go and check on the methods.
They donât even mention with words that smokers were excluded, or people that were tested for other influenza cases, they were not specific at all. They just tested people with confirmed tests for H1N1.
Letâs see at a CT image of a healthy person.
Oh yes, now even I see a difference. So come on. They do CT scans of old people, they see a difference to a healthy person and then they test them for corona virus --> HEADLINE we have a new method to detect the corona virus. 
The bottom line is, one should take every line of news with a grain of salt. Especially those published by global news portals. There is no journalist that does a serious background check on these news, they just copy paste that stuff and it goes viral.
Iâm not surprised when I see news like âdue to changed methodology 20% more cases were classified as Coronaâ. It doesnât mean that these people fell ill today. The infection curve is a little bit steeper than we thought, but it still looks manageable. It doesnât make a big difference on the log chart.
The problem is that the reporting methods change all the time. Last week the criteria were relaxed in order to show progress in the epidemic management and have people as quick as possible back into the smartphone factories, but now it seems it was not such a good ideaâŠ
Markets can be very slow to react. If the 1% who actually react forget to do anything, the 99% followers wonât.
there are several sources, this is one for example. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-coronavirus-epicentre-hubei-speeds-testing-after-complaint-12407246
Itâs a lie that they can detect the corona virus reliable with CT scans. You just see a black and white image, they can use it for screening, and they will see a difference to a CT scan of a healthy person. And of course if you make a correlation with the actual RNA test, you will find a high Rsquare value, but that does not mean there is any causality. I donât trust any news that are coming from China, and you can interpret it as you wish. One interpretation is, they are not in control yet, so they need to find an excuse to report the increase in patients. Another interpretation is, they use now CT for screening and any patient with a weird image is labeled as a corona patient --> they overestimate the amount of actual patients.
To me the bottom line is what the Prof. said in his interview in NZZ, old people die, and those with a weak immune system. Of course, over populated regions, terrible working environment, under nutrition add to that. So it probably affects a large part of Chinaâs workforce that is producing mobilephones and gadgets that we enjoy.
And if you notice, serious newsjournals donât even mention that CT method, e.g. NZZ article on the region of hubai.
BBC has an accurate report on what is happening in China and the real cause of the spike.
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