Geopolitical situation

Nope :-). This was already priced in. Look at the Ishares CNYA
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/273318/ishares-msci-china-a-etf

Discount to NAV was already -8.32% as of Friday. If anything, the drop of -7.88% on CSI300 as of now means we are slightly up for the day!

Tecent, Alibaba (listed in Hong Kong which was open starting Wednesday last week) are both around +2% now and the general MSCI EM index will follow.

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Dunno, to me it seems it happened today - Monday.
Friday seems to have been closed there. (But you are probably talking of the pricing that happened during that closed time, which makes sense)
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/399001.SZ/

Doesn’t take away from the fact that the drop is there today, present. :slight_smile:

Yes, because the China domestic stock exchanges (Shanghai and Shenzhen) were locked for the holiday. ETFs in the US and EU with exposure to these shares (A-Shares) continued trading last week, and therefore this drop today was priced in and its magnitude is exactly as expected.

EIMI is now up 0.7%.

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For the non-believers :wink:

For those who are following the news.

Don’t place your bets too early.

OPEC and its key ally in the OPEC+ coalition, Russia, are set to convene an extraordinary meeting of a joint technical committee on Tuesday or Wednesday this week, to discuss the continued decline in oil prices since the coronavirus outbreak in China, a source close to OPEC told [AFP] on Sunday.

So, Chinese equities have basically recovered from the coronavirus drop, with many stocks making new highs. Fear is rarely a good advisor!

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Unless the fear of others makes you become greedy :smiley:

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Has someone of you considered investing in vertical farming over ETFs? To me it’s a no brainer that this has to come within the next 20-30 years to feed all the people living in the cities. I don’t want to do any stock picking because the risk is still too hight.

I can virtually guarantee that if the shit really hits the fan, you will feel the risk is even higher and still wont buy. Fear is not a good advisor!

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Yaa, then I have to do the research


So we’re at 2 weeks later. If the reported numbers are to be believed (China, hey), increase has (probably) flattened a lot, 60’000 sick & 1’500 dead. The measures taken are helping slow the spread, even though today a jump was reported due to previous “under-reporting”. Let’s see.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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If official statistics are to be trusted then since a week the number of new cases is dropping. Let’s hope this trend continues.

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Some today’s news which may cause the numbers to shift quite a bit

I blame China for market manipulation. I am sure they held this news back. The markets are of course reacting again to these news like before. I am sure someones earns a lot of money


I like this article about risk and the corona virus. https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/risikoforscher-didier-sornette-eine-gesellschaft-die-risiken-immer-staerker-kontrollieren-will-steuert-auf-ihren-tod-zu-ld.1539913?kid=_2020-2-12&trco=&mktcid=nled&mktcval=165_2020-02-13&reduced=true

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And regarding the CT method, I doubt that they have some really good method. CT is not made for soft tissue imaging, they would need a good contrast agent. And you don’t run regularly a CT on a patient because the X-Ray dose is high, so if they do it for the torso to get an image of the lungs, it would be a fast scan, and the image would be blurry and pixelated


As far as I see it, markets are not really moved by this new information (yet). I guess nobody believed the official numbers to start with, right? For my 4 stocks listed on HKEX two are 5% up (Xiaomi, Ping An Good Doctor) and two are flat (Meituan Dianping, Haidilao) today (13.02.2020).

According to these news, asian markets did react. And my interactive brokers portfolio also does show post market-close losses.

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I trust my watchlist, not some mainstream cfd-broker-ad-driven websites :-). Tencent and Alibaba, the heavyweights are both positive (0.9%, 0.7%) which means the broad EM index will not suffer that much today.

Let’s see, they just copy reuters news and distribute it - like any news portal. I am not a finance crack but S&P 500 and Nasaq Futures are currently ca. -0.5% and in the past these often meant that the markets will open with a minus, but anyways longterm it won’t make a difference. I am just convinced that worldwide news are mainly money driven like anything else too. But you can also call me crazy :slight_smile: