I think market timing is possible, especially when I see what people have posted here Stock picking vs ETF. But I don’t have the energy, resources and most of all motivation and interest to do it diligently on a small scale. However, in 2018 there was a lot of stress because of the usa and china tradeware and I had a bad timing. Of course, now 2019 corrected everything but I would be in a much better position if I had thought a bit more about this tradewar. What also always happened in history is that stocks would surge after president election independent of the party that takes seat in the white house. So, I believe less in market timing but a lot in statistics and I follow geopolitical changes out of interest. Now, if I had enough time I would run some statistics for at least back to second world war and would find similar events as to the drone strike on the oil plants in saudi arabia or the missile strike in iran and check how much the market was affected by such events and for how long. But I am a bit lazy or better said busy with more important things and I would never bet a substantial amount on such a thing at high risks.
What I know is that Trump eradicated any news and voices on impeachment with a single missile strike and that the US industry needs some war from time to time, so I would be very surprised if things would calm down instead of heat up in 2020.
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