Future of Bitcoin

Again, this is not a discussion. You are just parroting what i said. If you want do discuss please don’t just paraphrase my posts, the value is 0, you can then just put a like or another reaction.
This way we keep the topic at least a bit clean.

Thanks.

Isn’t it that the whole point of the Bitcoin maxis that the USD (and other fiat) is overvalued and is devaluating now against the hard Bitcoin. An overdue “event” (reflected also in the new bitcoin ETFs).

The only question is why aren’t the other big corpo doing it… The blue print is here. Apple has $160b in cash…

Well, as far as I understand store of value refers to the fact that goods and services that can be bought using as asset would continue to be of similar worth.

Cash is not store of value anyways and hence they lose value over years. This is why people invest their cash.

So let’s say USD lost 20-30% value over 5 years, you can say that it even lost 50% value. But what you could buy from one BTC 5 years back was much different than what you can buy today.Hence bitcoin being store of value is not really true.

It seems to be an appreciating commodity. Like lithium. However in case of lithium people have figured out a use of it to generate even more revenue or value. Regarding BTC, until now use cases seem to be theoretical (for example it can replace Banks). If the bitcoin network indeed replace banks and make banking transactions cheaper, easier, safer then we can say BITCOIN network should be worth similar to banks. If that were to happen then we can start to explain the rise in value so steeply.

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Companies who have cash on their balance sheet use it in different ways. For them the use comes from liquidity. They are not using cash to make returns. To make returns they can simply invest it or give back to shareholders.

Replacing cash with BTC will reduce liquidity because it’s such a high volatile asset that one needs to keep being invested for a long period of time. 160 billion in BTC today can be worth 16 billion in one year or 1600 Billion. No one knows. If they were to invest in BTC, it would be considered as an investment and not replacement of cash.

The difference between Apple and MSTR seems to be that Apple makes money by selling iPhones and apps while MSTR’s main value proposition is that it holds bitcoins. For all practical purposes MSTR can be considered a bitcoin holding company. So, I don’t think we should compare Apple and MSTR.

MSTR is not showing any blue print to anyone. Someone even mentioned that Slayer says he will never sell BTC. But companies who hold cash need to use it for emergencies, strategic purchases and other purposes.

It reads like chatgpt :sweat_smile:

The blue print was posted above, they can just copy and paste. I think coinbase might be doing it, they opened a $1b convertible debt offering a few days ago.

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This is an important part. It works as long as the price goes up, and the price goes up as long as outside money is willing to buy either MSTR stock or BTC. If the people who are buying into it start to need the money or get bored with it, the price can go down. If the price goes down, it can have a reinforcing effect, pushing people to sell BTC and the stock. Since BTC is what supports the price of the stock at its current levels, the profits they get out of their other activities may not support it enough and it can go all the way to zero. The self-reinforcing effect acts like leverage.

The catch is the tail risk, which is huge. It will work for as long as it will.

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I slowly started to buy some more ETH and BTC.

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Unfortunately no more money to buy more. If the correction lasts until the end of the month, I’ll buy something else. Are you others selling or hodling?

HODLing and DCA buying more monthly with the next salaries as long as it hasn’t reached any “excessive” prices.

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Does BTC trading venues/exchanges have circuit brakers or any other mechanism to prevent crowd being irrational?
If not, I just can’t comprehend how any institutional investor would justify meaningful investment in BTC when the value of their investment overnight can be approaching 0 and there is no “incompetent” FED to step in to normalize market.

So does the curse work only on stock market? :slight_smile:

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Crypto kids have just recently invented accumulating funds and buybacks, you will have to wait until they will grow to this idea.

I’ve read that “crypto is a fast-forward of 400 years of banking history and how regulations came to be”. Eventually they’ll reinvent the wheel, for sure.

What’s interesting is how many crypto maxis have an extremely poor understanding of how finance, or TradFi as they’d probably call it, works. I was talking to a friend about options and he said “gosh that sounds like gambling”, this from a person who’s tied ~90% of their NW in crypto, hoping for a big win this year or the next.

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Hier ein übersichtliches Bild bezüglich der vergangenen Halvings und der Preisveränderung vor und nach einem Halving.

Can’t wait for my salary, very nice deep to buy!

That’s the whole point of being decentralised, we limit third party interventions as much as possible, if people value it at 0, then be it.

As for institutions, it s a $1T market cap so it starts to be “safe” from that perspective, but it is interesting because for some of them it is still not enough. So there is the possibility that bitcoin will become much more attractive to bigger institutions once we reach 2,3,4,5 trillion market cap.

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Investment companies issue shares and use the proceeds to buy other assets. This is nothing new. UK investment trusts are an example.

What is different is the flow of equity and debt investors convinced that BTC is different to any other asset in history and is certain to go up over time, .

Saylor does a convincing pep talk but in the end his substance is “Bitcoin is the ultimate asset” and it seems like an act of faith whether or not you believe that.

Can you explain why it would it be a competitive advantage?

I am familiar with financing companies and it doesn’t make sense at all unless the objective of a company is to speculate in BTC

“Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom”, if you price things in bitcoin, everything is getting cheaper. Saylor is just smart for trading one for the other.

Also, he announced it 30min ago, they now own 214’247 btc acquired at an average price of $35k. I am starting to doubt we will see below $40k price anymore, so I doubt they will get liquidated.

They will probably have financial products around bitcoin soon, and I won’t be surprised if microstrategy becomes a massive bank/insurance in 10 years from now. But hey, I am just a short term gambler so who knows.

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Remembering tulips, those were also decentralized, I guess back then somebody made good money with them as well and even they are still in use today…sorry for the joke, compensating for the lost opportunity in BTC :smiley:

So far all those institutional investor providing BTC ETFs act as agents and we yet to see anyone investing as principal, apart Microstrategy. Many others? Pension funds?
Btw, how do Blackrock and others mitigates password loss issue or that shady IT guy transfers BTC to some anonymous wallet issues?

If you price everything in BTC, especially once it’s fully mined, it’s a deflationary asset. What do we do then?