Future of Bitcoin

My barber is DCA since i told him: my cut goes straight into btc and he is up 150%

Hmm, this is an interesting situation when a haircut increases the value of an investment…

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I think that’s the problem I have, I can’t really trust that these numbers reflect actual usage by the population at large. The crypto market is full of wash trades and similar practices, Tether is still standing even though it’s super shady, and it’s unclear what’s left if you remove that and focus on actual usage.

50k. :white_check_mark:

Related stocks like MSTR and CLSK are CLSK are also pumping 40-100% in 1W.

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There is $30-60b of volume every single day, weekend included. You can’t put that on tether. Same for hashrate, this is very concrete.

Anyway, I hope everyone here is closer to FIRE with this beautiful pump. It was the easiest to predict.

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Fire: low interest loans against your stack

hairdressers and taxi drivers. we are safe :sweat_smile:

As long as everyone is a winner no one wants to know what it actually does… just like RMBS in 2008…

I didn’t want to commit here so as to not jynx it. Indeed before opening the browser just now I was thinking of commenting in this thread with something about the weather and a joke that there was really nothing else to talk about, but I was too late :smiley:

In any case I was happy that I was able to make a substantial purchase a few weeks ago. It really seemed like the last call for that train and at least taken into account today and what happened since then it was great timing.

We also had 60k+ at the end of 2021.
So what?

One thing seems true - it’s not a buy’n’hold type of asset, but one needs to (successfully) time the “cycles”.

Why not? More broadly, why can’t I put that solely on speculators who hope this will go up and thus keep buying, with actual usage (meaning people who actually use BTC to transact) remaining low? I still can’t bridge that disconnect between the price and non-speculating usage.

How is the causation though? I think a higher price would lead to a higher hashrate, and that’s very independent from whether people actually use BTC.

It is directly related, bitcoin mining IS usage.

Usage goes up > more transactions in the mempool > fees go up > more miners are willing to participate to get the reward + fees > hashrate increase > network is more secured

Difficulty adjustment is every 2 weeks, so you almost have a forecast based on miners sentiment + usage.

No he is right. Sure usage increases the transaction fees that increase the overall block reward slightly but this is extremely low %. The vast majority from the block reward comes from the mined bitcoin reward.

See: https://charts.bitbo.io/fees-percent-of-reward/

There could be 0 transactions for a month and difficulty and mining power wouldn’t change all that much (assuming that BTC price remains the same). Conversely we can expect that the mining hashrate also halves with the halving so there’s that.

It already happened that fees are above subsidies (2023 ordinals spam). It happens often that fees are 10-20% of a block, which is massive (several today). It will be even more after halving in relative terms.

If you cut miners profit by the average 5% fees reward, many will unplug immediately and the hashrate will decrease. We have seen it many times in the past so I stand by what I said, hashrate is a very good “sentiment analysis” of present and future usage. Just one among the many data we have :+1:

https://twitter.com/naiivememe/status/1757316866060501167?t=IEhaznENm38sXZMn95VI8Q&s=08

Some lols :grin:

TA „Experts“ :rofl: (20 chars: HFSP)

I currently have 2 ETH as my only crypto holding. It‘s back to 5k. Should I switch into BTC?

I also have some ETH in the same single digit amount and I am keeping it for a bit of diversification. So you don’t have any BTC? Maybe you could then keep 1 ETH and the other ETH buy BTC but it won’t give you much BTC :expressionless:

I‘m wondering if BTC will be the only crypto currency that will have a good longterm return. I was sold on the whole ETH economy, but now I don‘t see any use for it anymore.

First wholecoiner then other „there is no second best“ assets :wink:

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