Future of Bitcoin

Crashing again already, behaving like some ultra-volatile growth tech stock :sweat_smile:

Can someone please enlighten me? Why? Just why does the price of BTC change at all (that much)? I own BTC, since 2016/17 and i more and more don’t get it.

The product is the same as 2009, there is no cashflow for btc, basically no updates since 2009 and we can expect it to be the same for the next 20 years since “code is law” and no one should change anything?

If someone would be able to buy 100% of the supply, whats is stopping us from just launching BTC 2.0 and start it all over again? There is no benefit of owning it all.
Why would someone ever buy more?

Why is it important how much it is worth in USD if no one actually is spending it? There are or were so many sites allowing you to spend Cryptos for services and goods, but hardly anyone is using them.

The wast majority of the people is just holding the coins on exchanges, following the tracker and thinking “when moon?” or “wow i’m rich now”.

One example and big difference from Cryptos to stock; cashflows.
BTC imho is a negative sum game, meaning that if i buy 100 usd of btc today, the exchange keeps 1, the seller gets 99.
Since no new cash enters the market and we basically sell and buy the “same” coin over and over the traded volume should fall.

The same transaction on stocks:
I buy 100 usd of say Google, exchanges keeps 1, seller gets 99.
Even if there is no new buyer/seller the company will award dividends, they might buy back shares, the issues new shares or go bankrupt. Those events will lead to a change in price.

Please enlighten and challenge my thinking.

I cannot challenge your thinking because I think you’re correct :smile:

I know a guy working for a crypto exchange. He always wins, no matter the price of crypto.

Like selling shovels during the gold rush: better business than actually digging for gold. Most gold diggers lost money on average, while digging gear stores got filthy rich :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

BTC might be good stuff for long-short trend-following though, because there it hardly matters what the underlying stuff is you’re trading with

Ordinals keep making headlines as there are now more than 100,000 inscriptions carried out on Bitcoin’s network. This has had a notable effect on the network state itself and has sparked a massive debate within the community.
Inscriptions are Bitcoin’s version of a non-fungible token (NFT), and they have been making strides throughout the past couple of weeks.
Multiple high-end sales already took place within the range of the first 1,000 inscriptions, with Ordinal Punks currently holding the all-time high.
Today, a new milestone for this relatively nascent space took place as the protocol saw the 100,000th inscription take place.

Search for Andreas M. Antonopoulos. He is a knowledgeable speaker on the topic. There should be some talks on youtube to dig into it if you want.

Just why does the price of BTC change at all (that much)?

Supply and demand. Bitcoin is the first commodity where the supply is known and fix. Even the future supply is known. So price is a function of demand. High volatility is because the market cap is still small.

whats is stopping us from just launching BTC 2.0 and start it all over again?

Bitcoin has some unique properties that are hard to replicate. It’s open, global, borderless, transnational, cencorship resistance, trustless and permissionless. It’s not only a currency but also a network. But the most important part is that there is no CEO, no company, no single entity or group that has some advantage over others.

If you look at other cryptocurrencies, then you’ll always find a founder, a dev team, a company like structure. So you can think of cryptos as a security, like equities. But Bitcoin is different. It’s more like a commodity. That’s why a lot of people compare it to gold.

Why is it important how much it is worth in USD if no one actually is spending it?

Money has three functions:
Store of value: maintaining purchasing power for future redemption
Medium of exchange: acceptance by merchants in exchange for goods and services
Unit of account: governmental and economic adoption of the currency (prices are denominated, taxes are paid, loans are issued in it)

Bitcoin is currently mostly used as a store of value.

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99 years old Charlie Monger on Crypts**t Charlie Munger on crypto: It's ridiculous anybody would buy this 'massively stupid' stuff - YouTube

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The “minor” difference is the Central Bank as lender of last resort and inolvement of regulators :grinning:

Better to have had one’s savings in CS than FTX


Let’s come back to this space in 5 years. It’s should be easier to get some positive vibes on this “speculative asset worth nothing”. After all we have Credit Suisse, a trusted third party, so why bitcoin :wink:

I’m with you that this just again shows the “health” of the financial industry but still to be honest against my personal believe, I think that no CS costumer actually lost any money except people having CS shares or these special T-bonds.

And still I can’t imagine how it must have felt if you have all your wealth in CS seeing that Drama and not knowing what will happen to your assets.

I understand your point and want to add the following:
None can predict the future inclding me, but I’m happy that there’s a decentralised medium to store value from my labor. Even if it doesn’t displace the current system, it offers an alternative that might keep it in check (hence gvt efforts to roll out chokepoint 2.0 in the US).

Regarding the CS debacle, the ones who lost the most in aggregate are not the investors but the tax payers who will burden the bail-out cost through inflation (the 200+ billions package will find its way in the real economy in the years to come)

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I’m curious what your theory is, how will that work exactly?

The link between creation of money/credit and its effect (inflation) is not really a theory, it’s merely a cause-effect relation. The only unknown is the time it takes to percolate into our economy.

Don’t think that’s the accepted mainstream economics view. But anyway which 200+ billions are we talking about? Financial guarantee from the BNS requires collateral to access, it’s not just credit.

Right, because mainstream has always been right. Let’s just agree to disagree. Cheers!

@nabalzbhf is right. No 200+ billion was distributed in the economy by the SNB or taxpayers.

If you think differently please could you explain?


Not a single CHF from the government was involved in the CS saving.


First I haven’t said it had found its way. My point is to assume that it will “percolate”.
Second you can refer to this article from reuters for the total amount at stake (250billions). Whatever you call it, it is liquidity, liquid flows down one way or another.

Here’s an excerpt and the link:

"Public support for the bank comes in three ways. Credit Suisse had already been drawing on the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) emergency liquidity assistance scheme.

Credit Suisse said last Wednesday it would take 50 billion francs from the scheme, which provides funding secured against collateral such as mortgages and securities.

On top of this, the Swiss National Bank offered the combined bank an emergency liquidity loan of up to 100 billion Swiss francs. That loan is protected in the event of a default.

The third tranche of support allows Credit Suisse to draw on a further 100 billion francs of funding via a public liquidity backstop"


Exodus mobile wallet now supports Lightning Network BTC payments. Interesting.

P.S. Actually Kraken Pro app can be also used for free Lightning Network BTC payments. Just a bit cumbersome, as every payment has to be approved via email.

I am honstly extremely pissed off that this happened already for a second time within 14 years after the UBS bailout and politicians promissed us this would never happen again. Now they have created an even bigger monster bank that has so much power and holds the whole country hostage. Again like last time there was no public vote on the issue, nobody will go to prison and we the taxpayers are supposed to pay for the corruption within the banking and political system. This is exactly the reason for BTCs invention. I am out!