Future of Bitcoin

Crashing again already, behaving like some ultra-volatile growth tech stock :sweat_smile:

Can someone please enlighten me? Why? Just why does the price of BTC change at all (that much)? I own BTC, since 2016/17 and i more and more don’t get it.

The product is the same as 2009, there is no cashflow for btc, basically no updates since 2009 and we can expect it to be the same for the next 20 years since “code is law” and no one should change anything?

If someone would be able to buy 100% of the supply, whats is stopping us from just launching BTC 2.0 and start it all over again? There is no benefit of owning it all.
Why would someone ever buy more?

Why is it important how much it is worth in USD if no one actually is spending it? There are or were so many sites allowing you to spend Cryptos for services and goods, but hardly anyone is using them.

The wast majority of the people is just holding the coins on exchanges, following the tracker and thinking “when moon?” or “wow i’m rich now”.

One example and big difference from Cryptos to stock; cashflows.
BTC imho is a negative sum game, meaning that if i buy 100 usd of btc today, the exchange keeps 1, the seller gets 99.
Since no new cash enters the market and we basically sell and buy the “same” coin over and over the traded volume should fall.

The same transaction on stocks:
I buy 100 usd of say Google, exchanges keeps 1, seller gets 99.
Even if there is no new buyer/seller the company will award dividends, they might buy back shares, the issues new shares or go bankrupt. Those events will lead to a change in price.

Please enlighten and challenge my thinking.

I cannot challenge your thinking because I think you’re correct :smile:

I know a guy working for a crypto exchange. He always wins, no matter the price of crypto.

Like selling shovels during the gold rush: better business than actually digging for gold. Most gold diggers lost money on average, while digging gear stores got filthy rich :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

BTC might be good stuff for long-short trend-following though, because there it hardly matters what the underlying stuff is you’re trading with

Ordinals keep making headlines as there are now more than 100,000 inscriptions carried out on Bitcoin’s network. This has had a notable effect on the network state itself and has sparked a massive debate within the community.
Inscriptions are Bitcoin’s version of a non-fungible token (NFT), and they have been making strides throughout the past couple of weeks.
Multiple high-end sales already took place within the range of the first 1,000 inscriptions, with Ordinal Punks currently holding the all-time high.
Today, a new milestone for this relatively nascent space took place as the protocol saw the 100,000th inscription take place.

Search for Andreas M. Antonopoulos. He is a knowledgeable speaker on the topic. There should be some talks on youtube to dig into it if you want.

Just why does the price of BTC change at all (that much)?

Supply and demand. Bitcoin is the first commodity where the supply is known and fix. Even the future supply is known. So price is a function of demand. High volatility is because the market cap is still small.

whats is stopping us from just launching BTC 2.0 and start it all over again?

Bitcoin has some unique properties that are hard to replicate. It’s open, global, borderless, transnational, cencorship resistance, trustless and permissionless. It’s not only a currency but also a network. But the most important part is that there is no CEO, no company, no single entity or group that has some advantage over others.

If you look at other cryptocurrencies, then you’ll always find a founder, a dev team, a company like structure. So you can think of cryptos as a security, like equities. But Bitcoin is different. It’s more like a commodity. That’s why a lot of people compare it to gold.

Why is it important how much it is worth in USD if no one actually is spending it?

Money has three functions:
Store of value: maintaining purchasing power for future redemption
Medium of exchange: acceptance by merchants in exchange for goods and services
Unit of account: governmental and economic adoption of the currency (prices are denominated, taxes are paid, loans are issued in it)

Bitcoin is currently mostly used as a store of value.

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99 years old Charlie Monger on Crypts**t Charlie Munger on crypto: It's ridiculous anybody would buy this 'massively stupid' stuff - YouTube

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The “minor” difference is the Central Bank as lender of last resort and inolvement of regulators :grinning:

Better to have had one’s savings in CS than FTX