Future of Bitcoin

[stojano]

@Patron

as soon as you try to exchange it to fiat currency or CDBC

My assumption will be that you don’t have to change it fiat, because you will no longer need to do that (but that’s further in the future).

@Patron

And since BTC is completely public and every transaction can be traced back

That’s true… and already in place with the investigative institutions. Several companies are offering this kind of analysis. People find always ways… maybe with Monero or so. But this doesn’t change the fact that a government has no control over the funds and cannot freeze it (like they can with banks or centralized exchanges).

@Patron

once it’s regulated, much less people will accept it as a means of payment because they can’t change it back to a legal currency

Au contraire… the regulation as requested by many e. g. Saylor and also the actual view of the Swiss government is to make it legal (within boundaries), protect the “investors” and not to kill innovation. Many pension funds are waiting for such a clear regulation to start investing.

[FIREstarter]

@stojano

If you take 1 BTC = 1 BTC then not really…

I’m not sure I understand your point here. If you prefer to talk in BTC only, then again why would anyone ever sell with a limited supply of 21 million in total? It just doesn’t make sense for me. If I have something very valuable - why should I ever get rid of it and e.g. buy a fancy software on wheels called Tesla?

[stojano]

@FIREstarter

sell

you mean buy something? because you will no longer need some fiat currency to calculate against and exchange. Sure you will be paid in BTC and pay your stuff with BTC.

[FIREstarter]

@stojano

you mean buy something?

Using BTC to buy something, hence selling parts of the BTC I hold.

@stojano

because you will no longer need some fiat currency to calculate against and exchange. Sure you will be paid in BTC and pay your stuff with BTC.

That’s a nice libertarian dream scenario, but I doubt this is ever going to happen. I’m not even talking about the consequences it would have during crisis situations. Plus governments would not allow that to happen - way too much power to be lost. It would mean e.g. that the US would lose its imperial power - and I’m sure we would rather end up with a world being nuked than the US just standing still.

I doubt that a depeg is going to happen anytime soon, so it still means changing your USD/EUR/CHF to buy BTC in the first place. Also the prices of the goods are still calculated in FIAT money, so BTC is just another form of conversion in the end.

EDIT: I’ll enjoy the great weather now. See you later

[stojano]

@Barto

For example they could make vendors (Tesla dealerships etc) responsible to perform KYC or proof of source of funds. Many countries have this for banks you can’t just show up with a suitcase of 100k USD in banknotes. Or just make receipt of payment in BTC downright illegal

The KYCs are already in place with the exchanges, banks etc and with the fiat currencies already. Sure they can be expanded. Still, paying 1 Million USD in cash it’s a hassle but still allowed. Paying with BTC it’s much cheaper and almost hassle-free.

[Burningstone]

@stojano

Many pension funds are waiting for such a clear regulation to start investing.

Which ones for example? I work for a large provider of investments for pension funds and we don’t have a single pension fund that shows interest in cryptocurrencies. It’s way too volatile for pension funds.

[stojano]

@Patron

So basically if your intention is to fight against government control with BTC, it will be without success and the whole point of decentralisation becomes pretty much useless because the government always gets what they want. If they can’t get your money, they take all your other stuff including your life. This is to some extent sad but we have seen in the last two years or so, it is very difficult or even impossible to escape government control.

True, but it’s about how easy is for them to do so. It’s like with traditional criminal investigation using Rasterfahndung vs on a concrete suspicion ordered by a judge.

[stojano]

@Burningstone

Which ones for example?

I think I repeated what Saylor or other maxi told in interviews… but here are some links I googled (1, 2). Well, not in Switzerland…

[Burningstone]

The first one is just a questionnaire what they believe will happen and when it will happen, also it’s including institutional and professional investors, which is a whole different story than pension funds. The second article mentions that fidelity offers it to their clients, which tells nothing about whether it’s actually used by clients (it’s paywalled, so maybe that’s mentioned later in the article).
In Switzerland it’s not going to happen anytime soon and if so, it will be a negligible % of the asset allocation. The pension funds are heavily regulated in Switzerland, which is good in my opinion, as most people have no clue about investments.

[San_Francisco]

@hereby

I am talking about their private blockchain based on Ethereum where they move billions between banks. It costs few hundreds dollars, it’s cheap and fast for them.

A great application for blockchain technology - though I‘m not sure why one should own a currency based on it, let alone have it as an investment.

@stojano

The interest for an independent payment system is increasing because the old one we have now don’t work for everybody

I don’t see the interest for alternative payment systems increasing. Maybe among the „crypto“ bubble but not among „normal“ people.

@stojano

then all the countries experiencing huge inflation (Turkey, Venezuela…).
BTC has found its way e. g. in Nigeria and some other African countries for many people who were previously left outside.

I‘m sure some people in these countries find ways to substitute their domestic countries. Have these been great investments or payment systems in developed countries with stable currencies?

@stojano

True, but it’s about how easy is for them to do so. It’s like with traditional criminal investigation using Rasterfahndung vs on a concrete suspicion ordered by a judge.

No problem: you outlaw taking Bitcoin payments for business purposes. On the grounds of combating tax evasion, money laundering or drug trafficking.

If you get caught taking Bitcoin, they’ll raid or close your business. Police can do that with force.

[Bojack]

@stojano

This sure will be used in a few years as a meme

This is one of the possible outcomes. Here is another.

[Burningstone]

@hereby

as an hedge to inflation.

Lol, same hedge against inflation as they are now?

@hereby

Even 1% of their allocation will multiply the marketcap of crypto.

1% of all swiss pension funds would be “only” around CHF 10 billions, assuming that each and every pension fund invests in it.

Also the committees that take investment decisions for pension funds are often on average 60+ years old and very hard to convince in regards to crypto.

[Bojack]

@Burningstone

1% of all swiss pension funds would be “only” around CHF 10 billions

It’s important to distinguish between invested capital and price/market cap. You can invest very little, buying many units at low price, and if the liquidity is low, you could raise the price by a lot. You can also invest at a high price and then it goes to 0. The amount of money invested does not, IMO, legitimize the valuation or the use case.

[Barto]

@stojano

Paying with BTC it’s much cheaper and almost hassle-free

Not convinced that’s at all true. You have to convert fiat to BTC and back again (hassle and cost)

Blockchain has advantages but you don’t need BTC or a coin to make it work do you(?)

[Burningstone]

@hereby

No, it is not an hedge against inflation yet. But things can change.

How and why should this change?

[Dr.PI]

Honestly after reading this thread last few days, I think that Bitcoin being a collector’s item in the future is a more plausible scenario than being a universally recognized value unit.

[Burningstone]

Ok, let’s say all the retail FOMO “investors” leave Bitcoin and long-term institutional “investors” adopt it. Let’s also say the current price is 1 BTC = USD 100’000.

Why would institutional “investor” x ever pay institutional “investor” y more than USD 100’000 for 1 BTC?
Currently people buy BTC, because they believe to find someone who is willing to pay more for it and with all the FOMO “investors”, they always found someone sooner or later. But why should the value ever go up otherwise? There’s no good being produced, no intrinsic value, just supply and demand.

[Kay4rElle]

Well, looks like the "big bullrun of 2021"was fueled by the same money in loops of leverage from ponzi to ponzi. This is why we went parabolic and now are dropping like a stone.

The baseline i take away is:

• There is no way to generate yield on or with BTC
• BTC is not a productive Asset
• Always ask yourself what is the token utility - if there is none the value is the same
• Holding Sttablecoins is always a chance lo lose 100% and gain 0
• The highs are always higher than anyone expects, so are the lows
• There is no shame to offer products with crypto for any company if they make money off it (JP Morgan, ETF, any trade based product where there can be made money off fees)

[Barto]

Have any of the proponents of BTC on this forum previously owned gold as an asset class? Or talked to someone that owns gold?

The situation feels like when IT at work spend millions to develop what they think is a cool technology but it never gets used because they didn’t bother to validate the idea with customers

[Oliv]

The amount of bad takes by people who don’t even understand the most basic use case/technology is… Staggering…

Why purchasing with btc:
No middleman, instant settlement. Why would a shop continues to pay visa/mastercard when they can get instant settlement for free even on a Sunday.

No intrinsic value:
What the value you put behind trust, mathematic and physic? Do you know what’s your government and central bank will do next quarter? I know what bitcoin will do for the rest of my life.

Not a store of value:
What’s your time horizon? If it is short term, you are mixing up emergency fund and store of value. And for the gold bugs, have you seen the news from Uganda this week ?

No adoption:
… Are you even for real they talk about bitcoin in the news Every. Single. Day.
Last time I check El Salvador was at 20% adoption. Do you know how many companies would kill to get 20% market share in a year…and country/state/city adoption is happening, Lugano is a good one. Actually countries start to compete to attract capital from this industry, it is not going anywhere

“NFT is useless”:
NFT is not a jpeg, we are just scratching the surface, especially in the media industry. Don’t you want a piece from your favorite artist? And no you can’t do that we a centralized database, especially when you attach smart contracts to your nft. If you say this, it just means you don’t understand either.

Government will ban it:
Like in China, where ~20% of mining is still happening, so effective

All transactions are public:
Yes, and they are anonymous… A simple Google search will show you how to purchase and sell in a non-kyc way. Just don’t be that intellectually lazy

I am probably missing a few more bad takes.