You still didn’t answer why you think that.
As a layman just repeating my favorite btc maxis 
. If not 2022, then 2023… history repeats itself.
The only thing I know for sure, I will not sell coz I did that the last cycles, and that time it felt quite similar like now. Same arguments, same apocalyptic visions.
(just ignore me… I had too much beer up til now).
How long are you storing value for? What’s your time horizon?
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I don’t see why it would.
So far, it has proven not to be a hedge against inflation - or lower stock prices.
Rather than a „counterpressure“ to those, it more seems like a pressure relief valve to monetary expansion and rising real estate/asset prices.
The pandemic (and stimulus checks) served as a catalyst - where many people had money at their disposal that they literally didn’t quite know what to do with (or what else to invest in).
Cryptocurrencies and NFTs soaked up that excess liquidity like a spoon - and the public hype and price increases fuelled (or fed back to) themselves for quite a while.
An impending recession, high inflation (energy prices) and higher interest rates may however reverse that process. When people have higher bills to pay (and mortgages with sinking house values), have less money to spend or invest, cryptocurrencies aren’t going to rank at the top of their priorities.
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From what I remember from other threads, you started to invest in cryptocurrencies in late 2020. May I ask when you bought your first cryptocurrency?
Cryptocurrencies have one big flaw: they are a closed system. Unless someone puts more money in, you can only distribute the money which was already spend on it. Which comes back to the greater fool theory (which you rightly mentioned): if there are no new inflows, you won’t sell your BTC (or any other coin) for more money later. It’s a zero sum game: for every new USD withdrawn, someone else has to put in this USD first.
You have big players like investment banks and hedge fonds are also buying certain cryptocurrencies, but to what extent? I think that most of the increase we saw after March 2020 was due to cheap money being available - and retail also spending a lot of money on cryptos in hope to get rich quick.
Due to the macro factors (increase of interest rate, no more cheap money available), we have the same effects on cryptocurrencies like we have on stock markets - just with a higher volatility.
Unless the macro situation changes, prices for cryptocurrencies most probably won’t increase again. I don’t see a depeg happening soon. I’m curious to hear why you think it will depeg @stojano
In the current situation, I would rather buy BTC+ETH than any other coin. Those two most probably will survive a long bear market and hopefully will come back stronger. For 99.9% of the other coins, I’m not so sure.
For all the fanboys: if you have 50 min to spare, you can watch Fefes video about crypto currencies here
Disclaimer: video is in German, Fefe is losely connected to CCC Germany and he has a lot of knowledge when it comes to IT, programming and IT security. That doesn’t mean you have to agree with everything he said, but I trust him more than most of the Web3 developers out there.
Personally I see BTC/ETH as a high-risk / potential high-reward play. Still, I count the money invested in cryptos as lost. If it turns out well, I was lucky.
There was a paper from a high-profile investment company which summarized investments in bitcoin as a long-term option with 80% probability of a loss. I can’t find the paper atm, but I think it summarizes it pretty good.
EDIT: found the “paper” again (click). It’s from Bridgewater / Ray Dalio (so there might be some bias, paper from 01/2021), but nevertheless it’s a gread read (hint: it takes time to read the whole article, but I highly recommend it). The summary was:
That is why to me Bitcoin looks like a long-duration option on a highly unknown future that I could put an amount of money in that I wouldn’t mind losing about 80% of
PS: I’ve been HODLing from 2017 and as of right now I could kick myself for not having sold at least my initial investment. That’s something I’ll hopefully do next time it goes up again: selling the initial investment earlier, so that my bags are risk-free. If it ever goes up again 
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Sept 20
Yes but I try for the 0.01% 
What is JPMorgan using their private blockchain to move large quantities of bonds for cheap? Why did they say few days ago that they want to enter the public blockchain space?
That’s not the only usecase of nft. It can for example destroy the blackmarket and fraud in the ticket industry.
I think some people are THAT stupid
That’s the thing about stocks: because of productivity, there’s a real benefit.
Sep 2017 in my case. Should have “invested” when I first heard about it in 2013 or so.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m also try to go for the 0.01%, but it’s really hard. And the chances are low to find those gems. That’s why I referred to BTC/ETH being the “safe” plays in the current environment.
You fell for a narrative here: NFTs are not destroying frauds, because you have to trust the issuer of the NFT. Same shit, different label. Not sure if you speak German, but if you do I highly recommend the video from my post above.
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No crypto or decentralized Blockchain needed.
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I am talking about their private blockchain based on Ethereum where they move billions between banks. It costs few hundreds dollars, it’s cheap and fast for them.
And the high fees are a scalability problem which is already disappearing.
I almost did then but I wasn’t ready and I’am happy of when I did when I look back.
Why wouldn’t you trust the issuer if you already trust your football club, favorite music band etc?
Well maybe centralized services will work better if blockchain becomes a competitor, can’t say it’s working now lol
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The interest for an independent payment system is increasing because the old one we have now don’t work for everybody eweywhere: e. g. political motivated: banks suspend accounts of Canadian truckers, sanctions on Russians… then all the countries experiencing huge inflation (Turkey, Venezuela…).
BTC has found its way e. g. in Nigeria and some other African countries for many people who were previously left outside.
I think, the big bang of adoption will come from people like Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk who will facilitate the payments in BTC massively. Twitter or integrating the Lightning Network in everyday use applications or hardware.
And this is near… not talking about 10yrs, more few months.
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I don’t trust any of those, let alone I hate football. Just search for Opensea (one of the largest NFT websites) and their history of doing business. For starters here
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Thanks for your thoughts. There’s one thing which doesn’t match though, at least for me:
Why should someone ever use BTC to buy stuff in the real word, if it is just going to go up? The price we see is a direct consequence of supply (limited to 21 mio BTC) and demand. Since supply is limited, the prices should go up. Unless there’s no demand.
The only thing I see here is growing the bubble again (Dorsey and Musk being famous for controversial tweets and have a lot of followers)
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Dorsey is inventing something that already exists with his web5 ^^. We don’t need a centralized layer2 on btc.
I don’t touch nft for now and especially not on Opensea (but I just got an airdrop of my first one recently)
Sometime it’s needed… let say for making it easy to enable all the small shops and businesses all around to receive BTC.
99.9% of the population will choose a cbdc over btc when they will have the choice
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If you take 1 BTC = 1 BTC then not really…
Your first use case is crime. That will surely get regulated
For your 2nd case people in those countries would surely prefer to transact in USD or a CDBC version of USD. They know what USD will be worth tomorrow but not a BTC
I think as long as the US interest rate is going up, the “growth stock” BTC will be falling. I’m still not convinced what the “fair” price of BTC should be. Maybe it’s 0, maybe it’s 100k, who knows? Have you seen any reasonable valuation model for BTC? I admit I was lucky to exit BTCÐ when I did. Now I can forever brag about making 400% /€40k return on crypto 
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But that’s the point: “get regulated” sure… prohibit someone to send btc from his hardware wallet.
That’s a very static view from now. Imagine a greater adoption of btc and possibly a de-valuated USD. Looks different.
I’m not sure with the CDBC: They can be switched off from the government… the whole libertarian point of Musk and Dorsey is not considered here (as you call in point 1 “criminals” and some call them free people).
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This sure will be used in a few years as a meme… like the pizza guy. 
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