Future of Bitcoin

If Tesla sells its Bitcoins, it won’t say it before doing so.

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Some other news in Bitcoin to show that the fundamentals are just as strong as before and Elon is, thankfully, not the only BTC user:

  • Goldman Sachs just hired a crypto trading team
  • Palantir is considering adding BTC to their balance sheet
  • Mark Zuckerberg has two goats “Max” and “Bitcoin” (:man_facepalming: that was really awkward)
  • Tokyo is considering decreasing its tax rate to 0% for Bitcoin. Hungary is pondering a similar move
  • Coinbase was the most downloaded app in the US a few days ago
  • Texas passed a bill that defines the legal status of Bitcoin as property
  • 46m people in the US now own bitcoin
  • Moneygram will now allow users to buy and sell Bitcoin

Not directly related but US inflation has hit +4.2%…(I know some people here think it does not matter).

And finally, if you want a bit of fun, go check what happened in the Etherum space yesterday with Vitalik making big moves against Shiba Inu coins and other shitcoins, it was…beautiful.

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It matters (although it is so far a base effect due to the consumption gap in April 2020), but compare it to the more than +400% price increase of BTC in US dollars…

…which conclusively proves that “real” inflation is much higher than 4.2%. :wink:

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It is almost like an halving happened exactly a year ago and it had an impact on bitcoin price, who would have thought.

Tether published their reserve: https://tether.to/tether-releases-breakdown-of-its-reserves/ and it somehow looks worse than I expected :slight_smile:

https://www.ft.com/content/529eb4e6-796a-4e81-8064-5967bbe3b4d9

tl;dr: it’s over 50% backed by corporate debt, cash is a tiny fraction (4%) as well as “cash equivalent” (repo/treasury bill, 6%)

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Can the “news” (the name of Zuckerberg’g goats? WTF?) below really be called “fundamentals”?

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Right I should have separated it. It is only the fifth wealthiest person in the world hinting to his million of followers that he is into bitcoin after all. Probably not a sign of broader adoption.

Talking about adoption:

  • Samsung is adding bitcoin external hardware wallet support to all their phones
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Phew! Well, as long as the amount of USDT is expanding, it’s all fine - they could even make benefits on those reserves.


Actually, it sounds a bit like the Swiss National Bank, doesn’t it?

What I am seing is that people are (finally) discovering that there are other cryptos with way better fundamentals than Bitcoin (think ETH, ADA, probably a lot of others). Elon’s tweet has, at least, done that.

… Right before pumping Dogecoin once again because why not? He had made it drop last Saturday agreeing to it being a hustle, after all. I’ll risk a prediction:

Tesla (or SpaceX) is on the verge of announcing that they are adopting Dogecoin and have invested in it (surprise, surprise, between last Saturday and yesterday). They’ll show positive earnings in Q2 2021 partly because of Dogecoin gains they’ll count into the equation.

I’m looking forward to being proven wrong.

Also:

Ewww…

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I didn’t mean the goat :joy: :joy:

The SNB manages its own currency it’s not pegged against the dollar :slight_smile:

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Sounds a bit like when the banks of Zimbabwe or Venezuela peg their currency against the USD

Sure, the CHF is backed by a floating mix of currencies (currently: 38% USD, 37% EUR, and smaller holdings), with no explicit peg.
I was more thinking about the similar ballooning production of tokens and the fact that things go well and orderly while they are expanding.
But, back to Tether, is the situation that scary? It’s probably all in USD and the reserves are mostly cash equivalents and bonds.

See the ft article, it’s 50% commercial paper with 0 details as to the quality/rating of it. They behave like a bank with none of the regulation/safety, if there’s any kind of run it’s likely to become very messy once they pass the 20% liquid/cash equivalent holdings.

Also read the comments under the ft article and link to Tether’s terms of service.
Eg:
« Tether doesn’t have to redeem a penny - and indeed, there has never been a verifiable redemption of tethers:

Tether reserves the right to delay the redemption or withdrawal of Tether Tokens if such delay is necessitated by the illiquidity or unavailability or loss of any Reserves held by Tether to back the Tether Tokens »

Sounds kind of like airmiles

Thanks for the details (I don’t have access to ft contents). But I’m sure that if there is a run, the Fed will step in as usual and provide cash and cash equivalents in exchange of illiquid assets. With $58 Billion “market cap”, Tether is too big to fail.

I’m only at the start of it but the MIT has an open course available online on Blockchain and Money.
Blockchain and Money - introductory session (youtube video)
Blockchain and Money - course homepage

The instructor, Prof. Gary Gensler, is now the chair of the SEC.

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I am really not an expert, but the cash reserve of a bank is usually not higher than 10% right?

I have no particular opinion about tether (I prefer Dai), they lied and lost a lawsuit, now I think what would be interesting is the evolution of their reserve over a few quarters. If their cash reserve increases every quarter to reach the same level as bank requirements, I would think it is a pretty good sign. If it is not… Well people are free to use them or another stablecoin.

Yes they are acting like an unlicensed bank (cutting out those middlemen and government regulators)

What they are doing seems to be like: I’m going to issue barto coins to you and a couple of my friends. For every 1 chf you give me you get 1 barto , you and my friends can set up an exchange and sell bartos to folks on the web. I promise that if you or my friends who set up exchanges come back to me in the future I will give you 1 chf for every barto - but only to you, not the folks that invested in your exchange, you are responsible for repaying them. Caveat: if you ask me for a lot in one go I reserve the right to have a delay in giving you the chf

In the meantime I will go and invest your chf in some bonds and stuff, that I am not going to tell you what they are because I am not regulated or audited. Oh and by the way all the above is an a limited liability company, so if it goes tits up, I can wind up the company and walk away with my profits

Deal?

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