What if BTC was a long term play by a secret service? Be it China or the US. The one that controls Satoshi‘s wallet - owns a weapon of financial mass destruction thah becomes more powerfull every year. Just sayin.
Just because BTC would be worth a lot of USD in this scenario, doesn’t mean either has much value anymore. Reaching high USD prices in this way would be meaningless (apart from gloating).
There’s still 21mio max and several mio lost. Does the Satoshi’s sats matter? In the long run, definetely not.
Mass destruction with 100% certainity is the fiat 2%++ inflation.
(if it was a secret service ops, well then for first time they did a good job for the world peace 
)
agree… and everything will be priced in btc (coz nobody wants to pay for the big mac with the 1mio usd bill)
Based on his random predictions which only he can believe, I think he might be delusional.
Gold after hundreds of years represents 1% of global wealth. But BTC in 2045 would represent 22% of global wealth (bull case)
But I wouldn’t be surprised that if he can create enough demand for newly mined BTC then the price can only go up simply because there wouldn’t be many BTC to buy.
And posts like this are alarming
btw on this topic. we can’t know the actual supply of Bitcoin because there is no way (i assume) to know how many have been lost. Large inactive wallets could be whales waiting to move or wallets whose keys have been lost forever.
if we can’t know how many Bitcoin there are available, how can we know the market cap? does that even matter?
BTC is a way of the market to absord excedd liquidity that would otherwise blow up valuations of existing assets even more.
We should be glad if more money flows into it, instead of paying 50x yearly rent for real estate, which should be used by humans to live in it and not for financial speculation…
With the government debt levels it seems there is more liquidity to come over the bext decades. So bullish on btc as an aset.
He has to be bullish. Also I am not a big fan of how he describes btc.
But honestly, who are we to judge? He apparently is far more successful in financial terms. So he seems to be doing a lot of things right.
Well. Just because someone is successful doesn’t mean they can say whatever they want & don’t get questioned
Anyways - I have no problems with his strategy because I am not buying MSTR stock anyways except the part that is already in indexes.
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Market cap is just a calculation
That’s all. It doesn’t change anything. What matters is what is market price of the bitcoin at any given point.
But it is important to put these numbers in perspective. As per Saylor bull case, total value of BTC coins (in 20 years) in market would be
- 10X global stock market value (as of end of 2023)
- 60x global gold market value (as of 2024)
- 3X global real estate (not just professionally managed, but all real estate that exists)
And why?
Because it’s limited to 21 million coins & AI people love digital assets & they are cheap to maintain. As if the only point of having assets is to have lowest cost to maintain/own them.
In my view the point of owning assets is because they do something. You live in real estate, companies produce things & services that you need. That’s what make them valuable and that why their value appreciates . Gold is not useful & thus it only have 1% of global wealth.
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I’d love to see your participation. Thanks.
What’s your Bitcoin stack (NW)
- 0%
- <5%
- <25%
- <50%
- <75%
- 75%++
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Some statements
- I do DCA (regardless the price) and hodl
- I do DCA (irregularly, more on dips) and hodl
- I trade BTC (try to time the market)
- I trade BTC leveraged
- I plan to enter the next bearish phase
- I have my own node
- I mine
- I have a hardware wallet/signing device
- I own a Bitcoin ETF
- I own MSTR
- I do just sh!tcoinery
- I don’t do BTC
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Sorry to be a killjoy, but I’m looking for the links and videos that have been posted on this post about documentaries on BTC. I think someone mentioned an Arte documentary on the subject.
I’d be interested if someone could repost the link (this topic has become so long and full of trolls that even the search engine no longer gives any relevant results…) 
.
The returns are really insane and with ETFs coming on board, the runway has been extended a fair bit!
What is puzzling for me is following
Average cost basis for long term BTC holder is 25,000 USD. With current price at 90K, this means 3.6X returns on total investment
Now these are very good returns but not thousand percentage points. How is this possible?
Not sure if I understand this term very well but it is called Long term holder realised price.
I see the max long term value of BTC (excluding peaks from other enthusiastic bull runs) to be $400k - $600k in the bull case.
It’s like with those buying ARK ETF - most investors come in during the peak/mania and that’s where the big volumes are and also the times that long term holders offload their holdings to dumb money.
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IBIT options should start trading tomorrow.
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So, 39% have no exposure to Bitcoin. Isn’t it a risky position to take? I know about the opposition to it and all the contra arguments etc. but just from the perspective of “if it does what all the maxis say it’ll do” where even a 1% position makes a very positive effect…
You could say the same thing about Bored Apes etc. Buffett never invested much in tech. Some made multi-millions on real estate while others own none. There are many paths to take and each individual might have a path that suits him that looks much different from another person.
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