Well. Just because someone is successful doesn’t mean they can say whatever they want & don’t get questioned
Anyways - I have no problems with his strategy because I am not buying MSTR stock anyways except the part that is already in indexes.
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Market cap is just a calculation
That’s all. It doesn’t change anything. What matters is what is market price of the bitcoin at any given point.
But it is important to put these numbers in perspective. As per Saylor bull case, total value of BTC coins (in 20 years) in market would be
- 10X global stock market value (as of end of 2023)
- 60x global gold market value (as of 2024)
- 3X global real estate (not just professionally managed, but all real estate that exists)
And why?
Because it’s limited to 21 million coins & AI people love digital assets & they are cheap to maintain. As if the only point of having assets is to have lowest cost to maintain/own them.
In my view the point of owning assets is because they do something. You live in real estate, companies produce things & services that you need. That’s what make them valuable and that why their value appreciates . Gold is not useful & thus it only have 1% of global wealth.
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I’d love to see your participation. Thanks.
What’s your Bitcoin stack (NW)
- 0%
- <5%
- <25%
- <50%
- <75%
- 75%++
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voters
Some statements
- I do DCA (regardless the price) and hodl
- I do DCA (irregularly, more on dips) and hodl
- I trade BTC (try to time the market)
- I trade BTC leveraged
- I plan to enter the next bearish phase
- I have my own node
- I mine
- I have a hardware wallet/signing device
- I own a Bitcoin ETF
- I own MSTR
- I do just sh!tcoinery
- I don’t do BTC
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voters
Sorry to be a killjoy, but I’m looking for the links and videos that have been posted on this post about documentaries on BTC. I think someone mentioned an Arte documentary on the subject.
I’d be interested if someone could repost the link (this topic has become so long and full of trolls that even the search engine no longer gives any relevant results…) 
.
The returns are really insane and with ETFs coming on board, the runway has been extended a fair bit!
What is puzzling for me is following
Average cost basis for long term BTC holder is 25,000 USD. With current price at 90K, this means 3.6X returns on total investment
Now these are very good returns but not thousand percentage points. How is this possible?
Not sure if I understand this term very well but it is called Long term holder realised price.
I see the max long term value of BTC (excluding peaks from other enthusiastic bull runs) to be $400k - $600k in the bull case.
It’s like with those buying ARK ETF - most investors come in during the peak/mania and that’s where the big volumes are and also the times that long term holders offload their holdings to dumb money.
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IBIT options should start trading tomorrow.
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So, 39% have no exposure to Bitcoin. Isn’t it a risky position to take? I know about the opposition to it and all the contra arguments etc. but just from the perspective of “if it does what all the maxis say it’ll do” where even a 1% position makes a very positive effect…
You could say the same thing about Bored Apes etc. Buffett never invested much in tech. Some made multi-millions on real estate while others own none. There are many paths to take and each individual might have a path that suits him that looks much different from another person.
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right… no offence to nocoiner (they’ll support me building my portfolio from scratch when btc goes to 0 )
Two things for me:
-
The outcome I truly want to mitigate is a global run for always more energy consumption to run cryptos, AI bots and the next tech crazes of dubious use until they’re marketed and forced down our throats. I don’t want to take part in it and feel I am resilient and skilled enough to make good income whatever the currency it’s traded in is in the future, if at some point nobody can make do without it. When they’re kept honed, skills are a currency that keeps up with inflation.
-
On a fundamuntal level, the thing that I really don’t like with BTC, and cryptos in general, is that average Joes practicing the “not your keys, not your coins” doctrine (which I respect) are likely to loose access to their wallet at some point.
.
The solution is to trust a third party to hold your coins for you, which creates centralization, which is the problem Bitcoin was trying to solve. More importantly, said third parties will also loose their keys from time to time, except they’ll still be able to account for the Bitcoins they can’t access on their balance sheet as long as their clients withdraw less Bitcoins than they can actually access. Fractioned Bitcoin reserves are probably already happening and we don’t know what will happen once one of them will have to admit they can’t actually provide the Bitcoin they pretend they have access to and people are left to dry.
To me and with my mindset geared toward resilience, Bitcoin is a bad idea and I see no need to partake in it.
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On the engergy part…
It’s not like there is a shortage of energy. The problem is more the availability when and where its needed. Especially renewables you cannot switch on and off as you please.
This leads to the crazy situation that electricity prices become negative at times because there is nobody to use it. Or wind turbines, solar etc need to be switched off.
This greatly reduces the profitability of such energy production
Now think what if there was a type of energy use that would only switch on when energy is cheap, i.e. in oversupply and switch off when its expensive.
This would make renewable energy so much more profitable
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If I may give my two (non-financial) things:
-
It’s actually good for the environment:
– Deflationary system, low time preference will generate less consumption (you’ll buy more quality and less often)
– As Joe stated, it may help the green transformation as it’s mostly an economical problem and not a technological (Bitcoin captures energy and let it transfer through time)
– And war is only profitable if you can print money to finance it… war is a environmental desaster -
Banking the unbanked:
Today, billions people have no access to financial system and basic services. They cannot have an banking account, rely fully on cash (unsafe, far away from modern technology). Bitcoin demonstrated that i can bank those people. They can start saving, start using the internet (and its services so normal for us)
For me Bitcoin is really hope.
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Not having enough energy is a western - feel good - problem. I don’t think that we will go much futher in this morale direction, as inflation & economy correction are kicking in. At the end, people don’t care much about green topics, when their children are freezing during a winter in the house, while the parents can’t afford the heating extra costs. Energy costs will be way cheaper as technology will move forward. Outside of Europe, most countries are building nuclear reactors to boost their energy production to ensure cheap energy for their industry.
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Even if you could say with certainty that bitcoin would go to $600k within the next 10 years, it still wouldn’t be an appropriate investment for many people: most can barely take the volatility of stocks, let alone the volatility of crypto.
It also depends on your outlook for bitcoin. If it is ‘only’ getting to $600k in the next 10 years, then that’s a compound growth rate of around 21%. The Nasdaq has achieved around 18% last 10 years (someone fact check me) so not too far off that.
and deduct the real inflation, you took risk for 1%. With Bitcoin you’ll have the same (hope more) but risk free (I know, I know other risks).
Yes, volatility is still hard to digest.
I think that might be one problem with BTC: it has never been through a real financial crisis, but has instead spent most of its lifetime in some kind of weird bull market, making all kinds of people “successful” by the money metric.
The worst we’ve had since the inception of Bitcoin (2009) has been Covid, and everything recovered somewhat quickly. I’m really curious to see what happens in the next financial crisis (who knows, maybe one cause by contagion from some dodgy crypto companies such as Tether or Binance). The FTX collapse led to BTC halving in value for several months before recovering; I don’t expect people who bought recently (and who led to the current price) because of the hype to refrain from selling if something similar happens again. But I guess that’s the point: since there’s no cashflow and it’s all a zero-sum game, all the money to be made in BTC has to be made from people buying high and selling low.
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