Future of Bitcoin

But if BTC is supposed to reach crazy high value as the investors/adopters are expecting, what is the point of buying stuff with it? If you expect it to double every few years (?) you should never ever sell it, because the opportunity cost is huge.

It’s like if I (a passive VT ETF investor) was going to start paying my groceries and buying beers using fractions of VT…

Isn’t this a bit contradictory? (I’m genuinely asking out of curiosity, to better understand)

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That’s what you do in retirement.
Just with the intermediate step that you convert VT to cash and then to groceries, because the store doesnt accept fractional VT.

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I guess currently, paying with BTC is more of a “fun” thing to do rather than a actual use case (apart from some shady business), while it would become more relevant once it is more stable (after it either mooned or floored), right?

At least for people who believe that the value will go up. If you believe it reached its peak then better pay every beer with BTC.

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This is somehow timing the market.
I buy every month btc, and use it wherever I can (even if I can’t buy with btc I ask firstly). It has to spread.

Btw, true power of the austrian school and deflationary stuff is low time preference: think twice before you buy it. (lol, I will never ask that for beer). This is very green!

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Where do you see that? Seems pretty even to me.

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Weiss jemand was die source dieses Bildes ist. Dort sind die täglichen Zukäufe der verschiedenen ETF Anbieter wie Blackrock zu sehen. Mit Google search picture fand ich viele Seiten die darauf referenzieren. Hat jemand den Link dazu?

this one?
https://farside.co.uk/btc/

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That’s a fallacious argument.

If you “know” that BTC is going moon, then by that logic, the only move that you have is to convert all your fiat into BTC to maximize returns, and by that point you still need to buy stuff to live (food) and for fun (drinks, phone, vacations etc). And you need something to pay for that, hence BTC. This is @stojano’s case. Just because he is all in on BTC and assuming that it will indeed moon, I assume he also wants to live life and not sit in a basement saving every penny to put it into BTC.

Most people are not like that, they take this risk but aren’t all in. In that scenario then perhaps they’d be better off using fiat to pay for stuff but there are a few reasons why that wouldn’t be the case:

  • It’s fun
  • It increases adoption
  • There’s a discount involved
  • fiat payment is not feasible or too costly (cross border payments for example).

You are right that by buying stuff with BTC you are selling, but if bitcoin is to be a currency and/or store of value it must be used.

In a FIRE community that should be clear. There’s no point in dying with a basement full of gold or Nvidia stocks without having spent any of it.

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there’s plenty of times in this thread where you have a few no-coiners debating why people use bitcoin, how it works, which direction it’s going etc with the odd comment from someone else with some link or recent event. And these discussions tend to be somewhat circular at times.

I’m not necessarily complaining but it is peculiar

Why would you say something like that?
Bitcoin is like the worst thing you would use for illicit activity. It is documented forever and can be traced.

In 2020, the criminal share of all cryptocurrency activity fell to just 0.34% ($10.0 billion in transaction volume).
According to the UN, it is estimated that between 2% and 5% of global GDP ($1.6 to $4 trillion) annually is connected with money laundering and illicit activity. This means that criminal activity using cryptocurrency transactions is much smaller than fiat currency and its use is going down year by year.

this is about crypto in general (where some coins may offer a huge level of privacy)
so illicit btc use is extremly minimal.

on shady business I found this one in my high quality meme collection:

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Bitcoin : Deflation (fixed amount of BTC), Public database, decentralized, 100% in control of you funds (nobody can freeze your cold wallet) :bulb:
vs
Fiat : Inflation (unlimited printing), centralized, controlled by government (they can freeze your account) :eyes:

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Yes individual transactions can be traced, but you can’t tell me you don’t know of e.g. all the ransomware attacks where people have to pay in Bitcoin.

Now before all the pitchforks are held against me, I’m of course aware that there are many other ways to do shady business with convoluted fiat-money-constructs as well.

traceable != identifiable (I’m agreeing with you btw)

There are plenty of ways to make bitcoin anonymous.

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Now this but for real

sure, this may happen.
But honestly, BTC is really unsuitable for this. The coins are identifiable, none of the exchanges will accept it. So you cannot really cash in.

other cryptos are very suitable for this, like monero. basically untracable.

Thank you very much for the link - those numbers are explaining probably the price increase, as the market needs to buy Bitcoin, especially when you know that since the halving only 450 BTC are “produced” per day.

I share the link again here:
https://farside.co.uk/btc/

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And those are only ETFs. There are other Saylors + countries with no access to ETF + miners which are not selling (yet) (like Buthan) + retailers…

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Mainlayer fees seem to be very cheap for such a price action. Am I looking at the right data?
Bitcoin Average Transaction Fee Daily Insights: Bitcoin Statistics | YCharts.

Any thoughts why we dont see a fee spike?

Well, last week we had 3 sats/vB… now 19.
The spikes we got 300 and more were because of the shitcoins on bitcoin blockchain. Imho, as any shitcoin, the hype is over (still see the data in mempool tough).

ETF have not that much transactions: eg IBIT uses coinbase and they make few transactions to blackrock wallet after the closing bell… I suppose.

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