Who knows?
Empires have come and gone. Maybe a matter of time…
The doubts I have about all these “Bitcoin will cost 100000…” narratives is that it is a very crowded trade. Millions of people are waiting for it. It’s kind of a too obvious high risk bet. 1000x is happening in a real small shit like SHIB used to be, like PEPE and many other MYDOGESHIT that we don’t know yet. They surge, obviously, when there is an OVERWHELMING demand on something that is barely traded. Where all this demand will come for Bitcoin? From institutions? Well, keep dreaming.
4 Likes
After 7 months of sideway you mean ?
20% correction in a bullrun is normal.
Apparently some people dont have btc yet. So there is still potential 
It’s because I sold MSTR a few weeks ago. MSTR is up 80% since I sold in early October. 
2 Likes
My convictions and doubts are intrinsic and have nothing to do with market movements 
.
1 Like
I’ve always been skeptical about Bitcoin and didn’t start buying it until very late, in 2021. I absolutely wanted a buying platform in Switzerland, which is why I came late to this market (I have absolutely no confidence in Binance, Bity, Kraken, and other platforms whose headquarters are unknown or in blacklisted countries; this doesn’t mean that the platform I use is better, but at least the team is in Switzerland).
I then tested my risk appetite by buying my first cryptos (BTC, ETH) and how I behaved with major rises and falls. I don’t put in much every month, but this little monthly nest egg is starting to grow and represent 5% of my net worth, which I consider reasonable.
2 Likes
Well let’s be honest. Bitcoin is not used for anything substantial. So it’s only use case is one of the following -:
„I want to buy BTC because it would go to MOON“
„I want to buy BTC because I believe that it would maintain its purchasing power over time as it is a store of value „
I think there are some people who believe in second narrative. And I respect them even though I might not agree for sure.
The first narrative is potentially dangerous because it just creates a FOMO and draws newbies without any real belief or understanding. This narrative can only hold if BTC is used for something that is valuable. For example make payments , transfer money etc. JPM payments process 10 trillion USD in payments everyday. In comparison, how much money is moved using BTC infrastructure?
In addition , these two narratives cannot be true at the same time. It something is store of value , then it cannot grow 10X or 100X in matter of few years. By definition store of value should maintain its buying power.
4 Likes
I think all your trading moves should be documented in a file. It sounds like you are always making wrong moves.
But it could be on total performance basis you are still fine 
1 Like
Good points.
I always considered two sides: people that just think it increases in value without any real reason and people who believe in the technology. The former group should not be surprised if it goes to 0, as it is just speculation. The latter group have a more advanced understanding of the potential but maybe also risks. What’s interesting is that bitcoin and some other cryptos have a certain scale so that the technology can actually be used. Not necerssarily saying that the tech is particularly advanced or sophisticated, but it has scale.
You mentioned store of value, which could be another reason. But as you point out, the substantial value increase, although positive, is not really a good example of stability and store of value.
Based on what I read and heard in podcasts, BTC infrastructure is a solid (not possible to hack).
But I don’t know why it is not used for making secure payments. It could be that it is not very efficient or something else. But if that were to happen at large scale, then there is potential source of revenue which will generate positive cash flow.
I understand that when someone has fundamental belief in something or is heavily invested , then all counter arguments look like „people crying because missing out“. But I think it’s always good to think about these things.
Otherwise it’s like Hernes birkin bag which also typically maintains value and beats inflation.
Totally agree.
My crypto maxi friends give me use cases of grandmas in the Andes using BTC to pay for fruit, goat meat etc. I tell them this is not a valid use case. The one try at adoption at the country level was a trainwreck.
From memory, the arguments for use seem to die down when BTC is down and rise up again when BTC rises. To me this stinks of shilling and rugs waiting to be pulled. Creating a wrapper of normalcy for clueless people with lots of FOMO. Not specifically for BTC as it doesn’t do as big moves, but for the smaller stuff that, as @Dr.PI noted, are the ones to do 1000x. They make a few insiders a lot of money and lose a ton of money for the rest of the saps.
I’d personally be more positive for crypto if the crypto community wasn’t such a toxic, lies-ridden place where fortunes are lost for the many and made for the few. That, and the conspiratorial pseudo anarchic faux libertarian “theory” regarding states controlling your money etc. I personally like having my money with a strong stable state like CH. I’d also like it if it was with the US, those nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, B2 bombers and multiple re-entry ICBMs will defend the dollar, so they do something for me 
Edit: either way, I decided that if BTC falls below 20k next cycle I’ll buy one just in case.
1 Like
Isn’t that interesting that something which was build to remove centralised authorities and regulation is depending so much on government regulation and acceptance to gain further value.
The last leg of price move was driven by ETF acceptance
New leg is driven by US govt support (potential)
I wonder if Satoshi would be happy with all this
3 Likes
For me what you note is exactly what instantly obliterates any of the pseudo anarchic libertarian “theory”. There are no higher morals anywhere in the space, just plain old grubby hands.
1 Like
Anyways.
Let’s see how future unfolds
I would not be surprised if BTC will keep going higher because the probability of asymmetric returns have always drawn people.
I just hope that people like Michael Saylor stop talking about things like „take leverage to buy BTC. Sell home and buy BTC… „ this is not good because he will not suffer much in a crash (not collapse, just a crash) but the average person would.
3 Likes
That’s the example of the toxicity I was talking about. He’ll be fine, Musk will be fine too, but the poor sap who actually does it could end up on the street. x.com is full of these stories.
1 Like
I feel your anger about not having enough Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is peace, Fiat is war.
7 Likes
Noticed the same at work and with friends.
You have a stack: you love it
Nocoiners: But………. 
3 Likes
Maybe I can ask for your thought on something. As Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) announced his plan to invest more in BTC and grow with this strategy. What is the benefit or drawbacks of investing into MicroStrategy shares, instead of investing directly into Bitcoin with a long-term view?