Future of Bitcoin

You are absolutely right. The discussion should be focused on the fact that even if we don’t really believe in BTCs 25% CAGR projection, should we invest in it.

The answer to this question is not easy. Because if investors start investing without having conviction in asset class , then they would not be resilient and would suffer losses during drawdowns.

This is why the conviction argument keeps coming back. In all honesty out of 100 people you ask, only 2-3 would be really convinced and rest are calling it a asymmetrical bet.

Anyhow. I won’t be able to contribute more on this discussion due to lack of knowledge on this topic. I just hope if the asset class grows then it doesn’t crash market for other asset classes and if it fails, then also it happens slowly or else we would trigger a big global meltdown.

Actually I like it mainly for its simplicity of explanation.

I agree. Few people invest in btc as of today.

Fyi: in the US some pension funds started allocating to btc. Some employees may have exposure but not even know it :wink:

E.g.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/michigan-joins-wisconsin-pension-fund-with-bitcoin-investment-b72e8c75

Dont worry. With 1 trillion btc is tiny.

If something crashes the market, it will be the outstanding debt, as always in every financial crisis of the last decades.

Global debt - Wikipedia.

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March 2020 vibes :slightly_smiling_face: :rainbow:

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People bored at home with free money while the FED gets ready to cut rates by 1% in a single session ? :smiley:

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Rather end of the world

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Do you like bananas? :banana:

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Interesting paper by blackrock on BTC…

https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/literature/whitepaper/bitcoin-a-unique-diversifier.pdf

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I found #4 interesting. Does it mean people who invest in bitcoin ( referring to folks who are seriously invested in BTC , not just like lottery ticket) are going to benefit if US and global economy becomes unstable.

Doesn’t sound like a good thing to hope for :slight_smile:

Not necessarily, but they sure prepare for it. As in, prep…are. Plus tinfoil. Guns. Nylon stockings. Shoot, a fella could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff! Purity of precious bodily fluids. You catch my drift? :wink:

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The short answer is: yes.

In my opinion bitcoin will be strong in any scenario where money supply expands.
However, if there is a recession, equities will likely not perform great. Bitcoin (and gold) on the other hand will be relatively strong in a stagflation.

So it is rational to allocate a fraction of the portfolio to btc if you look for the optimal risk/return.

I do NOT think its bad to benefit from a shrinking economy as a small investor. Rich people benefit massively when they purchase bankrupt firms at dollars on the penny during recessions. Why should we restrict ourselves?

Sure. I am not saying it’s bad to benefit.
But if most people have have 0-5% of their portfolio in BTC, they would always have a problem if economy goes down.

If BTC goes up and everything else goes down, people would only benefit if they have decent/high allocation to BTC. And that would need real conviction which exists amongst few people only. As per data I saw less than 10% BTC wallets have higher than 10000 USD balance. More than 75% have less than 1000 USD. Unless everyone who holds BTC owns hundreds of wallets, it kind of shows the level of asset allocation.

Most people I know use BTC as „lottery ticket“ just in case it goes to million Dollars. Very few fundamentally believe in use case or asset class narrative.

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this banana seems a little delayed compared to the previous bananas, no?

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Yes the banana is ripening and will be ready to eat soon.

why do you think it’s delayed this time compared to previous halvings?

Probably due to the boring and long (longest?) sideway phase which will melt faces even more :yum:

Not enough momentum, and plenty of uncertainty, whales need the minnows to fatten up a bit before eating them.

I’m waiting for the Omega/God candle (20-100k on a daily). But I like banana though… :sweat_smile:

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With stagflation you will be better off with 5% of btc in your portfolio, than without.

If btc goes up and equities tank, btc may be 10% or 20% of your PF.

Then you rebalance, sell btc, buy equities back to 5%

Standard portfolio theory.
The more uncorrelated assets exist, the more stable you can build the portfolio with same or higher returns…

Of course i do not hope for such a scenario, but i try to be prepared