Why play it short time when it has been growing for the past 12 years?
Regarding quantum computing, you could gain consensus on upgrading signature/node rather quickly if it becomes a threat. Easiest solution? Just use a new address for all your transactions so that a computer cannot match public and private keys.
Loss coins and mempool are more of an issue but I believe a soft fork could solve this issue as well, that’s actually an interesting topic
As for banning, yes good luck with that. If you are curious about it, you can search for the volume coming from Nigeria post ban a week ago (check paxful or local bitcoin for instance).
Anyway, silver marketcap is just around the corner!
Out of curiosity, what makes it so hard? If exchanges are cut off from the banking system only a tiny amount of people would go through the trouble of in person exchange (with likely much much higher fees and lower volume, how do you transfer 20k outside the banking system, without raising suspicion?). And definitely all the institutional money would flee.
(whether a ban happens is another question, but that a ban can’t be effective, I’d be very surprised)
Very unlikely, just few days before Coinbase IPO on Nasdaq… probably on some tokenized platform by Nasdaq. They tell, it could be IPO and ICO at the same time… but just speculation.
Money can lost all his value against real thing yes but have always a value or can be converted. A lot of country exchange their own money for Euro and everyone can convert their money during XX years for the new one. The BTC can have just no fiat value tomorrow if central bank/country decide that’s just illegal to detain or exchange that.
Look XRP it’s a perfect example of what can happen when all exchanges remove a coin and what you do of your XRP one time unlisted everywhere ?
With so many printed money and so many debt you think the countries will accept to have another money and people just switch their money by an uncontrolled central bank money ?
XRP is the first step I wait the final decision about this crypto and look after what happen on the whole crypto market. I hope nothing happen but it’s one possibility.
I not own any ETF but yes I sell my main stock with most value before March (it wasn’t a krash ) but keep a lot of smaller position during March and sell one by one since at a little higher price and take almost no profit. I not add any position at lower price but take another for sell quickly.
When we reach this state, than we will have a lot of other problems beside crypto. All encryption must be replaced and if so for the whole internet, cryptos will not be just waiting
It’s a fact but how change the code behind the BTC ? It’s pretty unsecure just a chain of characters stored in decentralized DB without any security. You are on a beach with a lot of sand but all the cryptos are stored in this sand. A multisig his way better but how many use that and not bullet proof.
Probably stay like that until there is a know problem and everyone sell and take another more secure crypto.
If a certain level of adoption of cryptos is achieved (I admit, we are far from there), then you can erase the USD or money as we konw it from all crypto currencies pairs and think just in crpyto. Beside that, there is only one or two countries that will probably prohibit crypto, but it will never happen, that every country in the world agrees to such a prohibition worldwide.
Elon have a part of his enterprise value on crypto and if big enterprise follow the trend can move very quickly. Just need USD, Euro, Yuan (already made their own crypto), Japan and the whole crypto market is down. Look XRP just some exchanges dropped XRP in the world and look what happen it’s only the SEC (only US) nothing more.
Yes, but what if it happens in 2 years? You lose 2 years. Or the mass adoption happens in those 2 years. I know just speculation, but right now I see only bullish signs from every layer of society, economy and politics. Much more intense than in 2017.
I will never make the same mistakes I made in 2017 and earlier with my first couple of BTC sold for 200€ and less, because mostly I listened to doom’s day prophets.
My strategy: keep at least 60% of your actual coins. Buy and hold, whatever happens. The rest… kind of a trailing stop.
EDIT: My main risk is 3rd world war and the collapse of the Internet.
In 2 years may be nothing and yes already lost 2020 year. No one know but for me crypto is up because market is already overvalued and some people put money inside a third market. For BlackRock/Vanguard or big player put 1b in crypto market is just nothing compared to their market value. It’s true crypto is 100% bullish and with the 1.9t of Biden it will probably push all higher.
Nothing happen in 2017/2018 just up and down without any reason because there is nothing behind this market. Elon can tweet to sell one day and everyone will sell like everyone buy when tweet anything
Market is managed mainly by computer now and when a stock take 5 or 10% in one day computer buy probably automatically just for be in the up trend.
It’s a strategy if you come before up trend noise and have some coin at lower value like 3/4k put that in a multisig wallet and look the news. Stay on XRP actually probably give the next move on crypto regulation.
The worst example possible, SEC filed a lawsuit because they are not considering it a crypto currency. SEC has already ruled that btc and eth are not securities.
In the case of a total global ban you will still have a non-kyc P2p world. Value would dropped for sure.
But with every new investors and institutions it becomes less and less likely. Bitcoin is also making its way in the US politics more and more, it will be soon too late/hard to remove because everyone will benefits from it.
I write that because most people not have buy back in 2008 and keep their BTC in multisig wallet since 2008. Most people enter in 2017 when go up and again end of 2020 when go up and because some people like Elon tweet.
You can play up trend but short time it’s a way more secure. Enter at 50k and keep long time can take 10 years no one know the time needed for recover and in 10 years may be quantum have already check all private wallets.
You can’t match private with a public key it’s a hash you can’t go to reversed side. But you can generate all private keys and just check the decentralized DB if something is stored on this address. Quantum computer not work like a standard actual computer and can test all or a lot of keys during the same time. Not have enough know power actually for do that but can be one target.
Actually you can already generate random private key and check at a slow speed in the DB if you found something on this random address not so hard to do.
Look XRP for what happen when a coin is targeted only by the SEC.
XRP too wasn’t a security and it was say by the SEC but change their mind last year
I’m very curious of what happen to XRP really interesting thing.
It’s a pretty small position of big player just don’t care if lost all value but it’s not the case of all small investors some people invest all another take credit for invest. It’s bad but happen at each time than small lost all.
Like you write it’s almost too late for do something against crypto but with enterprise moving their asset it can move at any time now.
If the public key is not known, the private key cannot be derived using a quantum computer. It will be much easier to attack your bank account or other valuable target instead of guesstimate btc holder… And again, you can upgrade the security of the protocol by consensus voting.
XRP? Well, only one country (U.S.) have opened a case against Ripple company. Crpyto is definitely not only the U.S.
I even think, with crypto the financial markets driven by the U.S. will be less important over time. They try hard (Mastercard, Paypal, and tradional banks to jump on the crypto train), but at the end, one of the raison d’etre of the cryptos was just to avoid those.
I agree. Just pointing out that that’s not fundamentally different than any other fiat currency.
In the end, it will play out on the “political” field. Big companies moving into a cryptocurrency and leveraging their influence on politics may play a factor in that.
Problem is that most companies are based in the US or do business there, so US policies affect most companies and people invested in them / their products / crypto / etc.
quantum computing, as most technologies, is a double-edged sword. It’s always an arms race between the good guys and the bad guys. Luckily, the good guys have more money (or there is more money to be made legally with this technology). So if one day quantum computing arrives and renders RSA, DSA, ECDSA obsolete, it will also offer a completely new way of encryption that not only crypto will have to adapt, but also all websites, online banking, etc.
In stable and organized countries like Switzerland this can be seen as a risk. But in countries with high inflation, where the local currency is worth as much as toilet paper, you could imagine that people would pay each other directly in Bitcoin, bypassing the state totally. How is the state going to ban this kind of activity? Or I could work as a remote programmer in a 3rd world country and be paid in crypto. Bitcoin will always survive, just as Bittorrent did, despite countless raids by MPAA and RIAA.
The concern is really the exchange between crypto world and real world goods or fiat currencies. But there just needs to be one place where it’s possible, and all the traffic can be funnelled through that place. Can you imagine that cryptos are banned everywhere and that nobody will accept your cryptos directly for a service or a product?
The more they ban it, the more valuable it becomes. Just look at Venezuela. When the government published some bullshit exchange rates to the dollar, a website called “Lechuga Verde” (green lettuce) was created to publish the real “parallel” exchange rate. If people dismiss the local currency in a few places and carry their activity in crypto, what is the government gonna do? And it can only spread from there.
One thing I’m concerned about fixed-supply crypto is the Gresham-Copernicus law, that “bad money drives out good money”. It says that if you have two currencies, one one is regarded as better, because it retains its value, it will be collected and not used as frequently as the bad one, which you’re trying to get rid of. In the end only the bad currency will float and the good currency will disappear from trading.
Not gonna comment on the rest of the post, but this is factually incorrect.
This law specifically says this only happens when two different commodity currencies have the same face value due to some government regulation:
For example the government says that a :
5 gram silver coin = 0,50 USD
1 gram of Gold = 1 USD
If in international trade 1 gram of Gold is actually worth 15 grams of Silver the gold coins will disappear from the US circulation as everyone will be keeping them to exchange them with silver in the international trade. Or will bring their silver and exchange it with gold coins in the US mint.
In Bitcoin this would be the same as the US government saying from now on you can pay your US taxes with bitcoin, and the Bitcoin has a face value of 1 USD = 1 Bitcoin.
Nobody would pay their taxes with the Bitcoin since they can exchange 1 Bitcoin with 50,000 on internet exchanges.
I think you’re referring to a specific case, to which this law is not limited. It used to be that the coins were made of silver, so they were worth their value in silver. Then they started to reduce the amount of silver in a coin, so people, aware of this, started hoarding the earlier, less “inflated” coins. But the law can be extended to two currencies, one that is inflated more and one that is less. You want to hold the currency that will not devalue too fast, and spend the one that does. So Bitcoin might become digital gold as a logical consequence, not as a failed design.
I’ll keep 60% of the coins, whatever happens. The rest I’ll cash out or switch back to more traditional investments, when the crypto market turns bearish. Funny, the 40% would be at current prices estimated 150% of my closed traditional investments before I went all in in January (very vague and conservative estimate). So even if I write off the 60% which I want to keep forever, it made quite a strong performance.
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) but keep a lot of smaller position during March and sell one by one since at a little higher price and take almost no profit. I not add any position at lower price but take another for sell quickly.
