Decoupling wealth from finance

Investing / Others
21

That seems very unlikely, energy consumption (esp. electricity) will keep increasing, while renewable (and decarbonized) sources are growing much faster.

Which is good for energy independence too, even if you depend on 3rd party to build up the generation (nuclear/renewable), at least for countries without fossil fuel deposits you don’t have to continuously keep paying 3rd party for oil/gas.

btw another nice insight I found in the report (https://www.iea.org/topics/fossil-fuel-subsidies)

In 2023, governments – especially in emerging and developing economies – continued to heavily subsidise the use of fossil fuels, spending $620 billion. This amount is significantly above the $70 billion that was spent on support for consumer-facing clean energy investments including grants or rebates for electric vehicles, efficiency improvements or heat pumps.

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22

Rigid establishment of remaining off topic, I guess.

Thanks for your back-handed compliment.

To summarize the study you quote from (Gemini):

Based on the IEA’s Executive Summary and key findings for the World Energy Outlook 2025, the three most critical and recurring points are:

  1. Renewables Dominate, but Demand Surges: Renewables (led by solar PV) are the fastest-growing energy source globally, but the overall energy demand, driven by electrification, cooling, data centers, and AI, is surging so rapidly that all major energy sources (including fossil fuels) continued to increase in 2024.
  2. Climate Pathway Failure: Despite clean energy growth, the world is not on track for the 1.5°C goal. The current trajectory (Current Policies Scenario) is consistent with global warming of almost 3°C by 2100.
  3. New Energy Security Focus: Energy security concerns have shifted beyond oil and gas to encompass the entire electricity system, with critical minerals (needed for batteries and technologies) and electricity infrastructure (grids and data centers) now major geopolitical vulnerabilities.

Yeah, see my post above and in the summary of the study: “all major energy sources (including fossil fuels) continued to increase in 2024.”

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23

Don’t forget that the absolute growth of a large percentage of a small thing can be smaller than the smaller percentage of a large thing.

IIRC, solar and PV is about or less than 20% of the he energy mix. So a 50% growth in solar+pv Vs 10% growth of FF would give the same absolute growth.

24

Thanks. I anyway expect reality to become eventually consistent with my own internal reality :winking_face_with_tongue:

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25

I somehow wanted to twist this sentence to sound like reality needs to adjust to my view but then realized, while responding, that your phrasing is already perfect. :hugs:

Of course, I still go by Winston (attributed, mysoginist apparently) Churchill: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, madam?”

26

That’s what I was going for :laughing:

Let’s just say there’s a reason I have been investing and continue to invest in out of favour energy stocks.

The hype of renewables, will soon meet the reality that we will need fossil fuels for a long time to come and we have under invested in them for years.

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27

Yes, it could, but not the case here. (note: that it’s looking at total energy, looking at electricity would be much bigger shift).

In the current policy scenario (no policy changes, and it takes into account the recent US shift away from renewable+subsidizing fossil fuel) :

  • 2024: 13% share
  • 2035: 19% share
  • 2050: 26% share

Natural gas has a stable share (I guess understandable esp. given the US push), while oil and coal have decreasing share (biggest decrease is for coal).

(table A. 1a from the pdf that was linked earlier)

28

You guys know me pretty well. Of course the average Greek person needs a daily ration of about 30 kilos of feta, 5L olive oil, a field of oregano and 5 loaves of bread to add tomatoes and onions and call it “a healthy little salad”. Or, commonly, we add food to our feta, not the other way around.

@Dr.PI motorcycles need to make noise, it’s part of the fun. Sometimes it’s so much fun that it ends with speeding tickets even for the most law-abiding of us :wink:

(will delete this message after it gathers a few sweat smile emojis)

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29

Can you please not delete it?

We need this kind of fervant post (especially after the non-fervant ones above – I’m exclusively referencing mine)).

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