I didn’t put much into so far, probably 0.5% of my NW, now even a smaller part after the rout.
I initially invested into some alt coins as alternative to lottery as I always thought crypto value is zero, but never know if you get lucky. It won’t break the bank.
Technically we should DCA but I an getting bored and pissed to throw more money at it.
What are you guys doing? Still DCA? Changing strategy? (Investing more in alt and less in bit/eth or opposite)
Looking for some inspiration before throwing more $$$
I would DCA 100 CHF in BTC and ETH every month if I could I think that in 5 years, or at least for the next havling, the market should go better, or at least at the end of the current bear market as crypto seems to be more and more corelated to the stock exchange.
I‘m still putting some money into it, but it’s true that with the end of Monetary policy that we had since 2008 it’s slightly a different game. I would not put in to much. I do ETH and DOT right now and staking/yield farming as good as possible but not in a real plan. Which is basically the same approach that I do for ETF/shares ratio is 5000:300 per month
Bolivia is a special case though. The reason why crypto is illegal in Bolivia is because there have been ponzi systems in place to rip of people during the 2017 bull run. And as the government is pretty ignorant they addressed this crime with a general bane of crypto. Of course people can still use crypto in Bolivia but they can not sell/transfer to anybody officially.
However, there is a lot more behind this from a socioeconomic point of view. Also to have US$ on an account does cost you extra money compared to the Boliviano. So far thanks to the revenue of selling gas to Argentina and Brazil the prices between US$ and Boliviano is relatively stable (which is already a big achievement) but once the government is running out of US$ there will be huge problems (also gas seems to be running lower and probably only last for less than a decade) and therefore the government tries to get all the people into Bolivianos where they could control the people way better.
In my opinion Bolivia is actually a perfect example why crypto is needed also in the future to gain independence from a strong ruling party
I’m sorry, I somehow mixed it up with El Salvador, which adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender.
The main arguments I hear for crypto is:
it’s a hedge against inflation, similar to gold → it’s definitely not as 2022 showed perfectly well
it’s uncorrelated to stocks, this may be partly true, but it’s highly correlated with monetary policy
anonymosity → not the case for bitcoin, everywhere you can buy Bitcoin you need to provide KYC, etc.
decentralisation → a small number of investors hold a significant amount of bitcoin and the risk that they take control is not negligible, also governments don’t need to know your actual transactions, it’s enough that they know that you do stuff in crypto and punish you for it
I recommend the bitcoin “Black Paper” by former crypto-advocate Nassim Taleb (“Black Swan”, “Antifragile”). Here’s the abstract:
In its current version, in spite of the hype, bitcoin failed to satisfy the notion of “currency without government” (it proved to not even be a currency at all), can be neither a short nor long term store of value (its expected value is no higher than 0), cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge, and, worst of all, does not constitute, not even remotely, a safe haven for one’s investments, a shield against government tyranny, or a tail protection vehicle for catastrophic episodes.
Furthermore, bitcoin promoters appear to conflate the success of a payment mechanism (as a decentralized mode of exchange), which so far has failed, with the speculative variations in the price of a zero-sum maxi- mally fragile asset with massive negative externalities.
Going through monetary history, we show how a true numeraire must be one of minimum variance with respect to an arbitrary basket of goods and services, how gold and silver lost their inflation hedge status during the Hunt brothers squeeze in the late 1970s and what would be required from a true inflation hedged store of value.
The hedge against inflation is quite similar to gold from a availability perspective. Right now also gold does not behave as it should according to inflation hedge theory.
As always it’s a numbers game if you would have had 10 years ago 100$ in cash, in gold, in btc and in shares you would be best of with the btc, but nobody knows what the situation will look like 10 years from now.
Thanks for your reply. But how is this different to speculation:
An investment is when you sacrifice something now, usually money, for something that is likely to develop positively in a long-term perspective, so you can harvest a profit in the long run.
Ultimately the price of anything is set by whatever people are prepared to pay for it. Yes, you could argue that there are ways of assessing value, but if you buy a share of Tesla, for example, you are assuming based on whatever your thesis is, that the price will appreciate so that at a later point you can sell it for a profit to “another idiot”. I am not sure how this differs to buying 1 BTC, for example, and making a separate thesis that this too will appreciate in value for whatever reasons you ascribe to it.
I agree that there is a lot of smoke and mirrors and snake oil salesman attached to crypto, at least in it’s current form. But I believe it closer to the the rise of a new industry, akin to the rise of internet companies than a tulip-style bubble that will be gone entirely in 5 years time. The vast majority that exist now will fail, but I believe that the children of today are more likely to want to invest in digital currencies and digital property in the future than shares of P&G or physical gold. And therefore I ascribe it value and therefore regard it as an investment accordingly. If that makes me the next idiot to buy “a worthless piece of bits and bytes” so be it. Perhaps you’re the other idiot buying what you regard as a “real investment” from someone like myself who has already captured the profit from them…
If that’s the case that’s a very slow rise compared to internet. Bitcoin is more than 10y old for instance.
For internet 10y was an eternity (compare the state between 1990 and 2000, or 2000 and 2010, or 2010 and 2020).
There are a bunch of companies providing utility (not as a lottery ticket) to hundreds of millions (or billion) of users that grew much faster than that (fb, whatsapp, various google products – maps, search, youtube, etc.).
It’s hard to argue that all the growth in crypto is not as a speculative investment (most likely 95% or more of the people who dabbled with crypto do so only for the speculative/get rich aspect).
If it become true, this means it will be even more profitable to invest in productive assets like P&G. You probably understand that they have customers who buy their product so the company makes money. Then they can distribute dividends or reinvest the money, for example they can buy the other companies nobody would buy, for half the price.
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I think that in 5 years, or at least for the next havling, the market should go better, or at least at the end of the current bear market as crypto seems to be more and more corelated to the stock exchange.
