Crimea and Taiwan

Is anyone worried about what could happen with Crimea? I’ve read the Russian are piling up weapons there, probably because Ukraine blocked a river that was the source of 85% of Crimea’s water.

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I’ve read the Ukraine started to pile up the weapons in the area and Russia follow them.
Not an easy solution… Main issue is I do not think that any country will back up Ukraine in real. Maybe more sanctions to Russia, but… Winter came and while Europe continue in necessity of Russian gas, no real intervention will be there.

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Maybe too much publicity for it to be a real preparation for military action.
I’m tempted to dismiss it as some flexing to get more favorable negotiating conditions on possibly unrelated matters, but you never know…if I was in Ukraine I wouldn’t sleep well I think

I don’t have much of an opinion about Taiwan. China has made its position clear and will not back down. Taiwan has symbolic and strategic importance to the US but at some point the latter will have to ask themselves if it’s worth a big mess in China’s backyard. I expect more blacklisted Chinese stocks but I wouldn’t be surprised if their prices remain relatively stable.

Concerning Russia and Ukraine, my understanding is that Ukraine’s ‘presidential decree n° 117/2021’ is very much at the heart of the most recent tensions. The decree makes it official that Ukraine’s policy is to retake Crimea. (Not sure why people aren’t talking about it more.) That Russia reinforces its assets along the border is a natural response. How far will it go? No idea. The interesting question in my opinion is why Ukraine feels so confident given the ease with which Russia could defend Crimea or the pockets of anti-Kiev resistance in eastern Ukraine. The simple answer to that question is probably support from the US and the desire of the US to torpedo Nordstream 2.

Always a bit delicate to comment on the subject since Russian and Ukrainian commentors – and some from neighbouring countries as well – on forums like this tend to get a bit rowdy about the subject.

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