Sorry but this is bull…
Is Warren Buffet not investing by waiting for low prices to buy into? Why did he increase his stake in Delta Airlines just recently?
I think every plan has to be revised and adapated if circumstances change signficantly, we have currently a situation which is completely different from normal days and weeks we have seen the last years. To me it is only sensible to react to the circumstances, adjust the plan. Therefore it is important to understand the plan: why was it done? for what? how is it implemented? Than you can also compare the current actions to the original plan and try to understand if you should really do it or not. This is to me the main reason to have a plan, for sure not to stick blindly to it forever, who said that the plan will work out for your entire life?
If you make now a plan to grow grapes in ticino, should you still do it in 30 years when average temperatures are much higher or should you maybe start planting avocados and mangos? I have no idea about agriculture, might be a bad example
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That’s why you adjust your AA over the years, but you shouldn’t try to time the market.
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This has probably been one of the most disappointing threads I have read on this forum. Everyone is a hero during a bull market, and this crash has exposed a lot of you has charlatans in my humble opinion.
Very easy to wax lyrical about 100% equity allocations and endlessly argue over idiotic strategies to microptimise your portfolios and reduce fees by 0.0001%, but the moment a 30% drop comes along, many are left with their pants down.
I thought the ethos of this forum was on long term passive investing and being frugal? Some of the nonsense I have read in this thread is at best immature and at worst dangerous, especially for newbie lurkers who don’t yet understand the market and might get influenced by what they are reading.
As far as I am concerned - I am not a trader, I am a long term investor and fully endorse the musatchian philosophy. I have reduced my spending, cleared out my debt, built an emergency fund of 3 - 6 months expenses and made a plan to invest my savings in cheap passive index funds and intend to hold for 30 years.
I chose an asset allocation I was comfortable with, set up a standing order to invest in my chosen funds monthly and have not looked at my custody account since January. I would advise most newbie lurkers to do the same - ignore this thread and the daytrading advice, do not get involved with options or leveraged ETFs and stop worrying about the daily ups and downs of the market and get on with your life.
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… and sit on cash. Remember, buy only when it’s expensive again.
was about to ask the same. @glina - how does that affect your status of being classified as professional trader and in turn the taxes?
I’d like to remind everyone I did not change my strategy one tiny bit. I held the positions and follow the -10%/+20% rebalancing to the dot. I believe FIFO qualification holds, so I sold units which I already had for more than 6 months. JETS and TUI1 are indeed exceptions. I guess I’ll find out if they want to chase me for some peanuts in profits.
Oh and yes, feel free to crucify me for taking a 1% margin loan to buy a basket of stocks which pays 2-4% dividend ;-).
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Actually this resurfaces I question I had in the past: if I buy today some more shares of an ETF/stock which I already own for over 6 months, then I sell again tomorrow making a gain, I assume I am selling from the old, not the new shares. Anybody knows is this is the (ZH) tax office’s view as well? No way to differentiate “new” from “old” shares I guess.
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This forum consists of many people, who in turn have their own views. If everybody here was like “shut up with your ideas, just buy and hold”, then it would be like a sect. That’s why I enjoy an occasional mind challenge to test my views.
Your post is a reality check. It brings us nicely to the core values, but I wish it wasn’t as bashful as it is. Who are you to smirk at people who experience the first stock market crash in their lives and see year(s) of their savings disappear (at least virtually)? That being said, I agree that suggesting to sell or go on a margin is just pushing it too far.
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Just to understand - how does this work in practice?
Did you sell your US part of the ETFs when they exploded during 2019?
When do you get back in? (if they are for the long term)
I guess you sell parts of it to reach your AA % (if you cannot rebalance with just another buy).
Or you just apply this buy/sell rebalancing with smaller “play” portions, not long-term holds?
The core of my portfolio is the plain VTI+VEA+VWO (or actually slightly modified to VTI+VGT+VWO+VEA). Everything else is proportionally indexed to the core part of my portfolio. Any excess gains are (or will be) used to fuel the core.
No, my monthly purchases went to the laggards then. Didn’t need to sell anything or rebalance in 2019.
The core is for the long term.
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Emotions and investing don’t mix well. Everybody should choose an allocation which makes them comfortable.
I do not regret a single thing I wrote in this thread. I remain confident that in the long term everybody will be just fine (unless they sold and did not buy cheaper “as planned”).
When all this is over, maybe even @bojack wont hold a grudge against me. I guess I should take it on my chest that my comments made him invest a lump sum with S&P500 @ 3000 pts. Well, as far as I know he was sitting on his cash for far too long anyway. Maybe I just made him put his money to work? Would he buy with S&P500 @ 2400pts or perhaps hesitate until it is back at 3400? We’ll never know, but I’m pretty sure he will make a good profit in the long run This is what it is all about.
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I don’t hold a grudge for that - it was my responsibility to buy when I bought. I just don’t like when you write about TUI, JETS, China, Russia, Oil and when you say that the price of some asset dropped, but it’s just panic, so you’re buying it now. As if it was all so easy. But in the end I don’t know if these are some considerable amounts (relative to your portion in VT) or you’re just trading 100 CHF and brag about it 
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Exactly. My asset allocation doesn’t make me nervous, I am sticking to my plans and am confident that I chose them well. Everybody else should do the same and hopefully we’ll all be looking at nice green numbers in our deposits in the long term.
What I’m less happy about is that I spend way too much time trying to figure out when is the right time to continue investing. Which was the initial question of this thread. 
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I think 95% of people here are pure and simple buy and hold (I know I am)… I would never dare to day trade anything. Finding the bottom is market timing but it is also a time when people need to rebalance so an appropriate time and also have a little bit of fun.
It is quite a bit more more fun than trying to save 2CHF at the grocery store… Frugality can seem a bit silly when your personal worth can vary by 10K a day and there is a deadly virus out there…
But yeah, it is probably best for me to stop looking/worrying. And just continue with regular contributions as usual.
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Next big stock buyer to say goodbye: Intel. Just a note of caution for dip buyers…
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It would be interesting to see what is the proportion of “buy cheap and hold” among the “buy and hold” mustachians. Is it possible of making polls in this forum?
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What? these were awesome tips :-). Prove me wrong.
So as everyone posts when they buy, just invested all the excess cash from todays salary at IB according to my asset allocation.
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As I mentioned already on this forum, there’s no such thing as “real value”. Value is purely subjective - for catholics ring of Pope John Paul II can be worth millions (and there’s some rich folks who would pay that much for it), for atheists it has negative value (it would be better if it didn’t exist because it promotes obscurantism). If people value Rihanna music generating huge demand for it, but for whatever reason supply for concerts would be limited - then the ticket for concert will cost A LOT. Even though for us this music can have no “real value” and ticket for us can represent value of trash.
Although gold has some practical applications (demand from a little bit of industry, jewellery, and so on), it only indirectly determines its value. Similarly indirectly (but probably stronger) influence has physical restrictions of supply. However, the ultimate, the most important driver of market value is what people think about given thing, and thus whether they buy and sell it and what prices they negotiate during this process. And since gold was currency, and jewellery used for religious and political status, and a store of value for thousands of years (and because it has limited supply), people still think it is safe haven and that’s why it keeps gaining value against cash.
PS. I thought you were studying economics, no?
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