Was mandatory in France for most of the past century, and we’re seeing similar numbers than Spain and Italy in terms of CFR.
Edit: skimmed the paper, not very convincing, e.g. I don’t think cases per million are comparable (it depends whether there’s a hotspot and since how long), and the graphs don’t look super convincing (some of the countries who had high vaccination rates are similar to the 5 countries who never had any). And in any case if there’s a difference that’s likely very small, just look at France or UK who had vaccination until the mid/late '00s.
The map above tells us that the countries where it will be mostly dramatic are Italy, Belgium, Netherland and USA. For the three first countries it is already correlated for the last one we will know in two weeks.
The table here under is sorted according to death per 1’000’000 people.
Particles in the air do not help the virus spreading, particles in your lung decrease your lung capacity, they are also being removed by eating cells, so called macrophages - those cells also remove inorganic solid particles from your lung that are in the nano to micron size. Now what happens if you are a heavy smoker or live in China where the air quality is super bad? Your immune system, namely the macrophages are already quite busy removing all the particles from your lung and therefore can‘t fight anymore the virus.
How do you see the end of the crisis and lockdown?
In some countries like Switzerland. the curve becomes flat, but as soon as people will go out again the curve will increase again. This is currently happening in China with a potential second wave.
Germany would like to give immunity certificate, but at this point less than 2% of the population could have been exposed to the virus and achieve immunity. Herd immunity is achieve around 60-70%. With a short extrapolation, it would take months or even years to reach 60-70% without overloaded hospitals. A vaccine won’t be available until at least one year.
There will be an app based on pepp-pt.org in a few weeks. Additionally mask supply will be better and everyone will wear masks in public transport and shopping. Masks can be reused a few times after waiting 5-7 days. Transmission in warmer countries is lower, together with the other measures, we will have some breathing room from june to September.
I do not believe that you can fight an highly contagious epidemic with confinement, you can only mitigate it and hope this way to avoid saturation of the health system. That means that a herd immunity has been developped in the population but it is unclear to which level. More than 5% of the swiss soldier engaged in the hospital had a positive test to coronavirus few days ago and not all of them had been tested.
There is a lot of desinformation about the virtue of confinement. The China Comunist Party tells the virus was defighted thanks to confinement, because it gives a way to control the people. Our western democracies tells we are successful with the confinement because it motivates the people to comply with it.
The problem in Switzerland is that the curve of the new cases is flat but nobody knows why, effect of confinement or herd immunity? There is a risk of new outbreak of cases if we stop the confinement but the immunity is too weak. For me the flat curve of new cases is a success that shows the good control of the spread of the virus in the society.
The serologic test to determine the immunity of the population as well as the decrease of patients who need ICU are the two useful indicators to gently release the confinement.
I completely agree. Iceland did kind of a randomize testing only around 1% of the people were infected and 50% without symptoms.
If you take the the total case in CH around 19’000 and you multiply by 2, you are very far from herd immunity
@xorfish The contagion is warmer country is only a bit lower of what I have seen
If the virus is spreading and can be detected in presymptomatic cases, you would expect a significant portion to be in that category. Most of these people will show symptoms a few days later.
If R goes down from 2.5 to 1.8 because of the weather, then it is easier to contain with other measures.
Disclaimer first : I have not read the article this is taken from.
Now, I am very fearful of correlations. As we always say : correlation is not causation.
You can find, literally, a billion other maps and data that correlates to the map of coronavirus death or prevalence.
By the way I started eating with sticks because the COVID is under control mostly in countries that eat with stick rather than forks. I advise everyone to do the same and spread this information, it could save lifes ! /s
Yes, good point. It sounded interesting when I shared it, but on a second thought, it’s far from proven, so in the end it’s maybe better not to spread rumors.
So, in all this chaos, I am still waiting to buy. Today I sold circa 10k USD VGT, the only ETF I hold that was not down from when I bought it…I wanted anyway to get rid of it to buy VTI, so now I have a little bit more dollars to use when (and if) the markets go down again. Considering the situation in US, I am confident it will be the case.
I know this is trying to time the market, father forgive me because I have sinned
I had vgt longer than 6 months. @glina is trading actively as far as I understood, and he said he is glad to pay taxes if he is earning money… I would think the same
It’s not exactly like that. My all em equal weight strategy was supposed to outperform based on rebalancing in periods of months or even years. The current market volatility simply triggers my rebalance levels at insane pace. For example I could take profits from Russia (ERUS) and GCC countries (XGLF) at +20% from bottom today, only to rebalance into Brazil which was at -10% level. I’m fairly confident Brazil (EWZ) will be up 10% or more next week and something totally unexpected like Thailand or Pakistan could also outperform the broad markets. The strategy doesn’t place bets on any single asset. It’s purely mechanical, one could say passive.
I’m not sure about taxes, I guess we will see about that in 1 year from now.
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(SP500 in the range of 2400-2600)