Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

So in case anybody wonders how come oil producers were up yesterday with oil price testing new lows, here’s the missing bit of news realeased today “Oil producers Exxon Mobil Corp. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. jumped in the premarket thanks to a rebound in oil prices from 18-year lows after the United States and Russia agreed to discuss stabilizing energy markets.”

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If the market goes up an additional 3% we are in a bull market.
Are people buying now that we are “on the way up”?

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There’s still a lot of uncertainty with the virus and when things will enter again in “normality” (if we’ll be able to call it that)… I think that this is only a bull run in a bear market, but of course this is just pure speculation…

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I just heard from a friend from Poland, that apparently some people are withdrawing money from the bank, as they are scared it could become unavailable. Do you think this is reasonable in the slightest, could it become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

I guess there are a few aspects on this problem. First is digital money. Can the banks run into a liquidity problem when the people or companies, who owe them money, stop paying interest on their loans? I guess the central bank will provide liquidity and the government will bail out the banks that run into trouble. How possible is it that so many banks would fail that a bail out would not be possible anymore?

Second aspect is physical money, i.e. a bank run causing a shortage of cash at the bank. The news would spread, causing more panic. Eventually they would have to introduce some daily withdrawal limit to calm the situation down.

Third aspect would be the Cyprus case. What do you think of a scenario, where the crisis drags on for months, causing incredible budget deficit and the governments decide, as an extraordinary measure, to confiscate all private bank deposits over 100’000 EUR?

Hmm, the government is encouraging banks not to pay dividends?

Haha do technicals really mean anything anymore nowadays? :joy:

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Interesting comparison:

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Here is an interesting article about bear market rallies

No worries, futures are expectedly red today again. :grin:

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Perfect timing for VIAC lol.

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It almost feels like prehistory to quote 90 y.o. data, but imagine if we were in the red “1” point now.

The people who lived through that crash sure had every reason to doubt the stock market…

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I wonder if that could be one of the causes that made that crisis so bad and painful to recover from?

It helps the bear market continue, just like corrections helps a bull market I guess

By the way, I read most of these are cargo planes. Passenger traffic is down by 95%, but overall traffic is only down by 80%. For example, London Heathrow has reported a growth of cargo traffic by +245% due to freeing up of runways.

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https://www.pepp-pt.org/

Good news, there is a large collaboration that offers the technology for a privacy respecting tracing app.

95%? Holy molly! I wonder if future travel will be more expensive.

I ask myself the same for eating out, they will have to repay the loans somehow.

No they won’t. Airlines are commodities. Restaurants are commodities. In these kind of businesses, the margin of the weak is the opportunity of the strong.

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Thirty years ago the cargo was clearly separated from the passenger traffic because the payload of long range plane was limited by the important quantity of fuel needed. Today, with the strong reduction of fuel consumption there is a lot of payload for cargo in a long range passenger plane. The strong reduction of passenger service has the consequence that the delay to obtain a shipment is for example two weeks from South-Korea to Switzerland. Some passenger planes have been converted for cargo in order to provided a much needed service.

I imagine an hostess putting packages on each seat and securing them. I wonder if they also have to read the typical announcements. :smiley:

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