Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

It makes perfect sense.
With interest rates at near 0%, you can borrow large amounts of money for an infinite amount of time and just wait for the economy to heal. The world will not end.

Like flip-flopping.
It’s just that the flops are bigger than the flips, so to speak.

Slow, steady growth phases are probably best to be in the market.
Whereas turmoil with many ups and downs is more likely to set you back.

He is. Up about +17% in Vanguard as we speak.
Though considering selling it now - it’d be a good profit to bank, as he put it.

:man_shrugging:

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That is also why it is quite dangerous to time the market. Even if you win once, you will probably do it more often.

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Well, there’s a danger in getting addicted to it.

Getting out of the markets virtually exactly at the all-time high to bank profits was really lucky.
Though you can hardly argue with his assessment that the run up to that was “good enough” to get out.

Getting into them after the big drops seems quite reasonable though.
The question is, if further turmoil will be ahead.

That’s the big one.
Some scientists can.

There is this nice reddit sub full of “market timers” that are basically just flipping coins.

Except they market time on steroids with leverage :see_no_evil:

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Holy hell.

I’m about to give up and cash out. All money in spy puts and don’t see this money train stopping. Refuse to buy calls. Not that anyone here really cares or wants an update but no way I’m selling. I’d rather go broke than admit defeat.

This is even worse than the Yahoo finance community discussion on USO lol. Here are a couple of good ones:









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Wow. No wonder they call eachother “retards” on that forum.

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The discussions in those posts are actually the best thing lol. @Bojack don’t feel bad about investing “too early”. You see, you’ll be way ahead of 95% of these guys.

Btw US hit 30 million unemployed today, reported 3.84 million (market expected 3.5 million).

Well, somebody must make the losses that are other people’s gains…

Did I see a -500k usd? ouch

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Investing is not a zero-sum game. Active investing IS a zero-sum game relative to the market (index). Passive investors are not making money off these suckers, because we’re not the ones trading with them.

Can agree that I imagined Cortana to be more of a skinny guy working in a cubicle at UBS. Always overhearing the hottest banking news. :wink:

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Not to brag but I’m probably the strongest banker in Switzerland (or at least was before everything closed lol). But yeah, the typical guy in my company is what you are describing.

I wonder how investors felt during the beginning of the financial crisis.

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SP500 reached it’s peak with 1562 in October 2007. Fell down to 1288 by March 2008 (-18%) and recovered to 1425 in May 2008 (-9%). Only to plummet to 683 within the next 9 months (-56%). All this happened over a span of 1.5 years and we’re just 2 months in currently.

Did everyone think in May 2008 that they reached the bottom 2 months ago?

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You could argue that the Lehman brothers collapse was the sparkt that really turned it into a wildfire.
So far it doesn’t look as if governments are going to let the big banks or corporations go bankrupt.

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Hi Guys,
I am amazed at the situation around.

But I decided to turn my amazement into action, and sold half of my stocks. I need to move them from Degiro to Interactive Brokers and that felt like a good opportunity after such a wonderful month. So I sold iShares MSCI World today and it will take a couple of days to transfer. Scary to transfer such big amounts, but Interactive Brokers is said to be cheaper above 100k.

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It’s already cheaper above 40-50k if you do the math.

Definetly I was thinking about this more than 1x. Especially while central banks started to boost even more and give us the feeling “business as usual”… and we are close to the market as it was a few months ago. This doesn’t make logically sense at all.

Oh that’s great.

Over last 3 years, the account on DeGiro grew way way above this.

It feels sooo strange to click ‘Sell’ on so many shares. As a buy and hold investor.

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It feels wrong that the market went up by so much, but if you look at the Q1 earnings of many companies they do not look that bad at all.

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So what do you say about Elon’s statement in the latest Tesla quarterly call?

They should be allowed to stay in the house, and they should not be compelled to leave. But to say that they cannot leave their house, and they will be arrested if they do, this is fascist. This is not democratic. This is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom.

everything people have worked for their whole life is being destroyed in real time

Also, my Google Chrome seems to have an opinion on what this forum is about :wink:

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