Convert CHF to USD (2026 USD/CHF)?

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Hello fellow Mustachians,

I will need to convert a large sum of CHF to USD by the end of 2026. What do you think of the current USD/CHF exchange rate? Is now a good time to convert CHF to USD, or should I wait until mid- to late 2026? Have a good day !

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Nice bet.

I might use the wrong tool though

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If you have a good answer to that, you could make a lot of money :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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Either do it now, at the end of 2026, or every month. If you’re risk averse, go with monthly and you’re unlikely to have the worst outcome (but also not the best).

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From a hedging perspective you should convert now, if you know that you need a specific X USD by then. But invest it in a money market fund, earning USD interest of ~4% pa right now.

But on how the exchange rate might actually develop? Ask your nearest magician with a crystal ball.

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Yes

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Or do fifty-fifty :wink:

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Are you already holding that large sum of CHF in cash?

If yes, are you only holding that cash in preparation for this transaction, or for other reasons?

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On short - mid term it’s difficult to say but if you look at this chart i’ll convert it the later possible.
If you look a politics there are high chances that USD keeps devaluating (for US exports) where CHF will keep strenghtening (safest politics in the world, safest currency, political debt brake).
I would change all of it the later possible (except sudden dip 4-6 weeks before the date).

As well I just had to convert a large amount and the most efficient way was to buy a subscription to revolut premium (~100CHF a year and then 0.00% conversion fees + other benefits). Let us know if you have a better deal.

Best of luck

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This.

We found one!

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11

Can’t you get a future contract :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

Then you get what the market expects USD to be worth in the future.

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You wanna bet ? :stuck_out_tongue:

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Yes in cash and yes in preparation.

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Thank you, it’s my point of view too, but I like to have different opinion :slight_smile:

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What I’d do would be:

  1. calculate what amount I’d have in USD if I converted now and bought a t-bill ETF with 4%/year, and
    1. held until I plan to do whatever you plan to do with the USD
  2. crystal ball guesstimation of USD/CHF at that time
  3. see what’s bigger minus fees and taxes
  4. assign a value on the guesstimation vs certainty
  5. convert to USD today and buy BILL or BOXX because I’m chicken anyway :wink:

Ah, you’re holding CHF cash now? In that case I’d be itching all over to get that cash doing something, and we know CHF is an asset in and of itself at the moment, but you intend to spend USD, not CHF, so I’d get the USD working.

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If you’re holding cash a year in preparation rather than investing, you’re clearly valuing the predictability of definitely having just the right amount of cash available, rather than being forced to sell assets at an inopportune time.

But then the question is, why would you apply that way of thinking to investing, but not to FX? Investing the money (to maximize expected value) is rational. Keeping the money in the currency that you’ll need (to maximize predictability) is also rational. It’s just a question of what you value. But keeping cash in a different currency than you are committed to spending is just FX speculation. I don’t think I’ll beat the FX professionals at that, do you?

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If you are looking for a low price Currency exchange then have a look at Currency Futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx/g10/swiss-franc.html
Works only with standardized amounts but is very cheap.
To buy USD vs CHF - i.e. Sell the CHF/USD Future (CHF 125k Contract Value) and at delivery date deliver the CHF 125k and receive the USD.
Place a limit order if you use contracts that are further away to avoid wide Bid/Ask Spreads.

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in one sentence does not go well together, IMO :neutral_face:

My choice for amounts > 1k CHF would be using IBKR Commissions Spot Currencies | Interactive Brokers LLC (with 0.002% (min $2) fees)

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IBKR would probably be smarter but I did not tought about this before …
On revolut (with premium) there are absolutely no conversion fees … I just swapped 20k usd and 20k eur to chf within seconds, no issues and sent them to another bank account, arrived the next day.
If your definition of “larger amounts” is 100k + then i unfortunately do not have experience with this but … any tips are welcome

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Dedicated “fees” are just one thing to consider. Anyone can offer “zero fees” but use a bad exchange rate, selling/buing with disadvantageous spreads, …

E.g. as of right now, 20k USD on IBKR buy you 16’122 CHF (incl. 2 CHF in fees), whilst on Revolut the same 20k USD buy you 16’112 CHF (with “zero fees”). The Google rate is 16’124 CHF…

For larger sums (> 1-2k CHF) I use IBKR, because of the price and security (the later may be subjective, though)

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