[COFFEE] Possibility of World War 3

You just quoted that - but it‘s bullshit. The author is making stuff up. Like his seemingly very own definition of „gainful employment“ (most public sector workers are gainfully employed)

Quite more than two fifths, innit?

So do you count all private employees as „productively working“?

I can tell you from first-hand experience that they‘re not (all).

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Russia just officially recognised the Donbass breakaway regions as nations, Putin sends military on peacekeeping mission to the Donbass.

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Sure… nice way to call war.

I don’t think Russia / Putin are longing to go to war.

I think they want (or prefer) peaceful “annexation” of these territories - or at least peaceful transition into Russian puppet state(hood). And peaceful but armed deterrence against NATO expansion.

The rest is up to Ukraine and NATO.

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Both the public and private sectors are pretty good at creating “not that useful” employment. How many of us find time to read and answer on these boards during work hours, for example? Some private sectors are counterproductive too: the tobacco industry, addictive gaming/gambling apps, private data gathering, etc.

My thesis is that one of the problem we, as a developed society, are currently facing is that too many people (me included) have too much money and too much time, leading to misallocation of capital (and the creation of problems during their free time, for other people to solve). I’d take 10 farmers over 1 Facebook app developper, the later is probably paid more than the formers, though.

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Our very own salary progression thread being any indication, he/she more than likely is, yes.

oh gosh you fell for it as well. :frowning:

Which would make sense, Russia recognized (annexed) double the territory controlled by pro Russian factions (in addition to breaking Minsk agreement).

Putin also clearly stated that Ukraine as a whole was not legitimate and only a puppet for the west. And as he wrote in the past “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia”, which doesn’t sound like having much of a sovereignty.

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I tend to agree with your analysis of the situation.

Zelenskyy is not your standard politician and is able to think out of the box. But the others there can hardly able to do anything beyond their usual polittalk.

Putin was VERY direct about excluding Ukraine out of the NATO and keep it as a buffer zone. The world does not need another NATO vs Russia war that would be a lose-lose.

The US has proven to be largely useless in recent times of “protecting” other people, Afghans, Kurds, Syrians. They don’t have to do anything in Ukraine, it’s not their war. They’re happy to sell their defense inventory though, 'cause those will need to be backfilled in the US eventually, which is good for business back home.

The way I see it is that Ukraine is probably lost and the West will do nothing about it, other than condemning, which is BS if you ask me. Putin will trip the government in Ukraine and make it into a Russian Puppet State (like Belarus) instead of an “American puppet state” the claims UA to be.

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Get back to diplomacy.

Grant semi-authority to these lands that they were requesting for long, as well as Crimea, on condition of swapping Russian “Peacekeeping troops” with UN ones. Allow multi-language schools, etc.

Sign a declaration that you are not wanting to enter NATO for the foreseeable time (~10 yrs).
Keep the DMZ as long as needed or deemed safe (like N and S Korea).

Not sure the Bear will wait for this to happen, though.

Watching this potential “plan execution” makes me shake, I’m in disbelief this could be happening in the 21st century (but I’m a naive optimist). :confounded:


Why do you expect an upward movement when triggers get pulled?

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You all live in Switzerland and no one ever mentioned the swiss way.
The best solution is (was?) to have a land with more than one official language, with some sort of independence. That was the solution to problem 1 (probably the less important for everyone outside Ukraine). So easy but everyone missed it.

The solution to the other real issues is harder:
Problem 1. Nato near Russia: Putin is unfortunately right. They promised and then “forgot”. Solution: Ukraine is buffer and make pact with Nato and Russia for protection against the other, but no forces of Nato/Russia inside them. US was so pissed when USSR was trying to get missles in Cuba, right?

Problem 2. Gas. There is no solution for this, other than keep buying and teach all those “green” parties that they should shut tf up and understand politics (and how nuclear work/could work). What could EU do now? Publish a 10 year (tight) plan to stop buying gas from Russia. At that point they will only be able to sell it to China.

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Isn’t that a bad precedent? He might continue or worse many more countries will do that. There are many regions around the world where it could happen.

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By the way, language isn’t the primary issue from what I understand (afaik most of Ukrain speaks primarily Russian, but it doesn’t mean that they don’t think of themselves as Ukrainian rather than Russian).
(The linguistic areas aren’t the primary differentiator)

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I strongly recommend investing 13 mins to watch the video from @dbu above (content starts at 2:08)

It gives an analysis on the Russian psyche and the threat that Ukraine could pose to Russia that I have not seen in our media

Key point is that if NATO is in Ukraine missiles would be in 5 mins of Moscow and in addition it would be relatively easy to cut off the Caucasus. Then you have to remember WW2 and Stalingrad…

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Sure, but noone actually actively want to redraw any borders or have the military might to do so. Some extreme right-wing parties might have dreams, but these will never get realized.

Surely nothing will change within the EU and/or NATO, not sure about Africa? APAC and LATAM also seems quite stable?

Enlighten me please if I’m wrong.

Same distance from Kharkov/Kiev to Moscow can be had from all Baltic States who are already members of NATO

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Putin stated these countries joining NATO represents broken promises - and so it is justification for Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Belarus

The video points out that security is the no 1 priority for Russia which is understandable in the light of invasions in WW1, 2 and Napoleon