[COFFEE] Possibility of World War 3

This also went thru my head. However the “projectile” seen on the video was a regular light flare which shouldn’t cause fire nor explosions.

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Russian planes and navy have been continuously around UK showing their strength and testing the reaction for months

Well, another Russian revolution could be a plausible way out of the current situation, actually.

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400K private soldiers? I guess he won’t be able to pay so many people anymore soon

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This guy has good content

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So you want Ukraine to be a NATO protectorate instead of Russian province. What about independency and sovereignty that is mentioned so often?

Did Switzerland become independent by asking France to kick out Habsburgs?

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Why not?

For starters, “the West”, or NATO could stop “reiterating” that Ukraine will become a member of NATO…

“We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance”

…agree to a neutral status for Ukraine. And then try to negotiate some realistic solution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

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And if there will be an intervention, then after some time there will be only one topic in the negotiation agenda: where to put checkpoints between West Kyiv and East Kyiv.

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Actually, modern Switzerland has much to do with the great powers of Europe sharing the cake between themselves at the Congress of Vienna in 1815, and wanting Switzerland as a buffer. The Canton du Valais (Wallis) was incorporated to Switzerland on that occasion. Some cantons (for example Vaud) became independents through the napoleonic invasion. Which is, in part, why the people of Vaud like the law so much: it is what set them free from the occupation from the Kanton Bern.

Chances are Switzerland wouldn’t have the same borders and some of us would be occupied by other Kantons, would not have joined the Confederacy or would have reclaimed independence since then without outside geopolitical intervention.

That being said, it hasn’t worked too bad (Sonderbund appart…) so the solution of an independent Ukraine agreed upon by the foreign powers surrounding it could be a potential solution. I don’t have enough knowledge of the local situation, nor experience in that field, to have an educated opinion on this.

Edit: thinking of it, we would still be under French domination if it weren’t for foreign powers beating Napoleon I and slicing Europe among them so, yeah, we are very much the result of international interference at this point.

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:point_right:t2: Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault

If you read just one article and opinion why the West is - at least partly - to blame for the current situation, read this article. Whether you agree with Ukraine’s accession to NATO or not, Mearsheimer’s analysis (from 2014!) has been right on point. Everything has basically played out as predicted.

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That’s what Ukraine wants. Also NATO still hasn’t accepted them formally as a candidate (while they’ve stated their interest for a while).

It’s weird how somehow it’s ok to deny state sovereignty over which alliances they chose.

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Go and tell that to Taiwan.

(…or to much of South America in the 2nd half of the 20th century)

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“Neutral” is surely what Putin wants? It would mean no military, and therefore do as he says, so not really neutral. In other words a vassal state of Russia a bit like it was before the Orange Revolution

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania got in NATO quickly. Ukraine was stuck half way talking about it but not getting any protection… probably not smart

Not necessarily. Switzerland, has a doctrine of being neutral but armed.

Could Putin agree for Ukraine to remain armed, now after he started his „operation“ and its purposes? I don‘t know. It would surely be a compromise, and I don‘t know if any of the parties would find it acceptable going forward.

“Special operation to denazify and demilitarise”.

Putin struck now before Ukraine’s military became too strong for Russia to neutralise in the future (or indeed too strong they could no longer stop them joining NATO)

About Switzerland, do you think it would still be neutral If Hitler would’ve won WW2(?)

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On a side note: Many articles in Foreign Affairs about the war in Ukraine are free these days It’s worth checking out also as a non-subscriber.

We’d be part of the Third Reich: “das heute noch in Europa vorhandene Kleinstaatengerümpel so schnell wie möglich liquidiert werden muss.” [link]

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While it’s technically true, a lot depends on how you spin it. If you were walking down the street with your wife and kids, and you saw someone getting a beating, would you step in and risk the lives of your family?

The no-fly zone is an act or war, so who knows how would Putin react. That being said, I’m also sure the madness of Putin is part of russian propaganda to keep us at bay.

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A military conflict with a nuclear power is a no-go, and I think the West is trying to see if and how a war can be fought economically.

I agree. It has been done before, for example by Kissinger and Nixon.

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He his ready for that - as long as it is armed with his army.

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Probably he will give a try with Baltic states first.

About a no-fly zone I see two issues:

  • it would be an attack from the Nato side
  • the targets will be difficult to distinguish and (an escalation later) the Americans will end up carpet-bombing the Ukrainians…
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