Here’s a (long) fantastic historical, political, and religious angle on the situation, with 2 intelligent guys.
(There is an audio only version too in your podcast app)
In what sense are western countries weakening themselves? If anything, the West has been mobilized - see Germany’s decision to increase military spending. Only a fraction of military power has been sent to aid Ukraine. I think China will think twice before invading Taiwan.
On the other hand, countries, especially totalitarian ones, are led by humans, and humans can make irrational decisions. There is only so much that you can predict during war.
My lesson from this military conflict is: don’t do business with unpredictable regimes. This includes China. Democracy’s “weakness” is actually reassuring, because it limits its unpredictability.
Being interlocked in an unarmed conflict with a neighbor is also a form of weakness.
Here’s a good analysis, from eight years ago.
(not paywalled)
I’ve lost track of the discussion but please be aware of falsified videos and articles coming from Russia:
PS. I was too harsh on the West - it seems it does have some soul after all. I’m positively surprised.
So am I.
Think of it: A social democratic German chancellor who decides to massively increase military spending!
The mills of bureaucracy grind slowly.
So a nuclear power plant was on fire and allegedly the russians were not making the job easy for the firefighters. Do you think this is enough for the NATO to react or will they wait until there is a malfunction and meltdown? Should I be buying some anti-radiation pills?
If it’s true that the russians were blocking the firefighters, what’s the goal there? Is Putin testing NATO, because he thinks it’s weak / is too concerned about MAD to do anything? Even the no fly zone seems like too big of a risk.
Maybe a strategy to “accidentally” make central Ukraine a nuclear wasteland?
Security threat on Russia’s border neutralised. Blame it on Ukranian nazi’s for provoking the fight or even shelling it themselves
A few Ivan’s fighting in the Russian army nearby may die , but relative to the cost of a prolonged war its probably acceptable
This also went thru my head. However the “projectile” seen on the video was a regular light flare which shouldn’t cause fire nor explosions.
Russian planes and navy have been continuously around UK showing their strength and testing the reaction for months
Well, another Russian revolution could be a plausible way out of the current situation, actually.
400K private soldiers? I guess he won’t be able to pay so many people anymore soon
So you want Ukraine to be a NATO protectorate instead of Russian province. What about independency and sovereignty that is mentioned so often?
Did Switzerland become independent by asking France to kick out Habsburgs?
Why not?
For starters, “the West”, or NATO could stop “reiterating” that Ukraine will become a member of NATO…
…agree to a neutral status for Ukraine. And then try to negotiate some realistic solution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
And if there will be an intervention, then after some time there will be only one topic in the negotiation agenda: where to put checkpoints between West Kyiv and East Kyiv.
Actually, modern Switzerland has much to do with the great powers of Europe sharing the cake between themselves at the Congress of Vienna in 1815, and wanting Switzerland as a buffer. The Canton du Valais (Wallis) was incorporated to Switzerland on that occasion. Some cantons (for example Vaud) became independents through the napoleonic invasion. Which is, in part, why the people of Vaud like the law so much: it is what set them free from the occupation from the Kanton Bern.
Chances are Switzerland wouldn’t have the same borders and some of us would be occupied by other Kantons, would not have joined the Confederacy or would have reclaimed independence since then without outside geopolitical intervention.
That being said, it hasn’t worked too bad (Sonderbund appart…) so the solution of an independent Ukraine agreed upon by the foreign powers surrounding it could be a potential solution. I don’t have enough knowledge of the local situation, nor experience in that field, to have an educated opinion on this.
Edit: thinking of it, we would still be under French domination if it weren’t for foreign powers beating Napoleon I and slicing Europe among them so, yeah, we are very much the result of international interference at this point.
Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
If you read just one article and opinion why the West is - at least partly - to blame for the current situation, read this article. Whether you agree with Ukraine’s accession to NATO or not, Mearsheimer’s analysis (from 2014!) has been right on point. Everything has basically played out as predicted.