[COFFEE] Do you have a war contingency plan?

Say that NATO gets dragged into a conflict with Russia and Europe becomes a military target: Cruise missiles, hacker attacks on infrastructure, …

I was thinking about taking some precautions: Have some emergency supplies, maybe cash (if credit cards don’t work).

Now I don’t mean to become a prepper, nor am I so worried (yet) about the war in Ukraine, but I’d like to have a plan, just in case.

What do you think?

I thought it was Warren Buffet but I can’t manage to find the source anymore, that advised $1000 in an envelope as an emergency fund. I’d stand by that (in CHF), in small notes.

Also, for people who usually keep low inventory at home, I’d consider storing a bit more food. I’d check the expiry date of the medicines in my pharmacy and renew it if necessary and keep a few blankets in case heating becomes hard or not an option. I’d also check my access to clean water: most tap water is pumped, so would not be delivered anymore in case of a blackout.

That’s the low level stuff anyone could do regardless of the risk of war. I won’t go into prepper stuff but mine would mainly be a stepping up of the basics above.

3 Likes

Coming from a small mountain village where everytime it rains a lot, water becomes not drinkable, I always have a 30 lit water tank in my cave.
With the situation as it is right now in the world, I’m thinking about some low hanging fruit things such as store some food in the cave instead of the kitchen, as well store some camping stuff (sleeping bag etc) in the cave instead somewhere at home half lost in some closet.

I will not purposely fill our cave/bunker with prep stuff. But rearrange and reorder some stuff to be ready to use in the cave.

With you, I’m never sure when you’re joking or serious… :wink:

1 Like

I thought the swiss defense doctrine is around insurrection, while some of the cities (maybe the most important ones economically) might fall, there’s no way a foreign army can actually hold the country (it’s like afghanistan but with much better equipment and preparation).

3 Likes

There are a few countries in between us and Russia’s occupated territories - I don’t see it likely that they could arrive til here.
With NATO engaging the moment they potentially try to cross their countries’ borders.

I don’t think that there will every be any threat in Switzerland for us or our children or our grandchildren, so this topic is indeed slightly funny.

Europe and Russians were in wars against and amongst each other, partly because there are no geographical boundaries which makes it easy to move ground troops from A to B over long distance in a short amount of time. So there will always be perceived threats from the West of the East and vice versa. Switzerland is a small country with loads of mountains making it difficult to navigate and also providing little agricultural outputs, much in contrast to Ukraine.
On that topic, if there is any country which hit the jackpot it is probably the US. A small border to the South, barely anyone living, North and East and West vast ocean and plenty of plain land to move goods fast.

2 Likes

You’re in a shooting club (not for fun) and have gas masks at home?

Missiles.

Put some reserves in the bunker.
Guess it’s time to buy guns or have a plan to get out of Europe.

If a nuclear war breaks out, I don’t really know where to go. Canada? Maybe Australia?

1 Like

That is my takeaway from my time in the Swiss army. Asymmetric warfare is the bane of modern armies. We are locked by the Alps and the Jura, while the Swiss Plateau is locked by the two cities of Zürich and Geneva. Trained and equiped civilians with access to anti-tank weapons and explosives are meant to be a problem for an occupying army.

We would fall in no time, but the militia system makes the army pretty decentralized and agile. Militia groups would not strictly need an actual central command to be operational.

2 Likes

No doubt. Considering how we could always buy surgical masks (and toilet paper :roll_of_toilet_paper:) even all throughout 2020, military-grade gas masks surely shouldn’t be any problem at „short notice“.

Geographically diversifying my assets seems like a good contingency plan. With Europe not yet recovered from the Corona crisis, and now sanctions, an energy crisis, and the loss of a major trading partner…let’s just say potential for a European recession that would make the 2008 crisis look like the roaring 20s is not as low as I would be comfortable with. I hope that won’t happen, but as the German saying goes, “Breit gestreut, nie bereut”

1 Like

And given that Switzerland would never attack a neighbour, that means there’s not much point attacking it. Better to keep a neutral country around to facilitate trade (or store gold)

We might be neutral in military terms, but certainly not economically. It didn’t take long for the federal council to adapt all of the EU’s sanctions against Russia.

2 Likes

Which one could fight with Krav Maga?

1 Like

If you’re asking me: I don’t think that we’ll have enemy troops here, but missile strikes could be possible? So I don’t bother about learning martial arts.

I can see two reasons: to strike at a world leaders gathering (Davos, Geneva,…) or as “retaliation” for predatory financial behavior (in which case it would probably come from an EU country). They’re not very likely, but I’d not rate them at 0. More likely would be a cyber attack that would disable our banking system or energy networks, or a major natural hazard like a big earthquake.

I’d plan for power outages/goods shortages more than for physical invasions. That’s planning for fringe scenarios, however, but taking basic steps is cheap and can make a difference.

Another preemptive measure that could be worth it would be to develop a relationships network abroad, so that we could get access to outside help if something happens. Taking holidays in the same area regularly and building relationships there could do it (or having family abroad, of course).

1 Like

Canada is a founding member of NATO so getting nuked on Day 1 (or 2).
Australia is also too high profile, and a close NATO partner.
I’m thinking a minor African country may be the safest bet.

Then again, it‘s huge. No one is realistically going to bother about nuking a small Canadian town or village, unless it‘s close to a military installation (or the prime minister‘s residence or something).

1 Like

Yea, but Canada is probably the last place to be hit. I still choose Canada though. If Canada also falls, the whole world is uninhabitable.