Chronicles of fat years [2024-2027 Edition]

Return and taxable income are different (and funds can vary wildly there some funds do a much better job avoiding taxable income).

Oh man, talk about the risk of a second wave of inflation in the US…

The East Coast port workers are on strike. No ship in can quickly affect other businesses. Importantly, it could directly affect truckers, which could reduce the supply of them, which would make it more difficult for the situation to quickly resorb itself once the ports become operational again…

All just before the elections. That union sure knows how to use leverage.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/01/port-strike-shutdown-east-coast-dockworkers-union/

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Transitory :slight_smile:

Meanwhile China on a pump roll :fire:
Good to be diversified these days :sweat_smile:

Longer term, I don’t see how we avoid it. Spending is crazy. On top of that, every central bank is in cost cutting mode.

Sure in the near term, maybe recessions and China exporting deflation will balance or outweigh that, but then what?

For this reason, I’ve been investing more in hard assets. I never held gold before, but now have 6% and will allow it to go to 10%.

The developed world is getting old and population will decrease. People don’t have have kids anymore. For the very longterm I don‘t see a problem with inflation and we might get deflation problems even.

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I agree, but timelines beyond my lifetime are not so relevant for my decision-making! :wink:

A wildcard may be medical advances, if we live much longer (or even become immortal) then population will only increase in that scenario.

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Werden die Wohnungsmieten herausgerechnet, liegt die Jahresinflation bereits jetzt bei minimalen 0,1 Prozent.

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…as easily visible in health insurance premiums for 2025 :rofl:

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Re:

Well, crisis averted. They’ve suspended the strike as workers have gotten a 60% raise over 6 years. They may start a new strike on January 15th (after the elections) over their other claims.

Gotta love the US and their ability to push the can down the road.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ship-queue-grows-us-ports-dockworker-strike-enters-third-day-2024-10-03/

When I hear about current salary and price levela in the US… I always wonder how this inbalance will catch up. We will over the next 2-3 years see a massive drop of the USD (another 30%+)… or we will import the inflation and our interest rates go through the roof.

They say that ‚thou shall never bet against the USD‘ but I no longer buy it. Anyone sharing this view?

They have 2 options: debase the USD; or grow out of it - or some combination of the two.

There’s a reason I’m owning a significant portion of gold and hard assets right now.

I just liquidated 10% of my portfolio and moved to CHF in anticipation of filling my Pillar 2 before the end of the year.

Given the 3.5% earnings yield on the S&P500, I’ll take the tax reduction and 1% CHF returns for a couple of years instead.

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I should buy more UPRO.

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Dont bet on that.

Neither the ECB nor the SNB will allow such a sudden appreciation of their currency vs usd

I’m not aware that one shouldn’t bet against the USD, I’ve only heard of Warren Buffet’s ‘never bet against America’.

The problem with these kinds of bets is that even when they are directionally correct, the timing is a tricky thing to manage. It could not happen during our lifetime, or it could happen early next year.

I’m not bullish on the US as I don’t think they can reliably keep having a debt funneled outsized growth but I’ve been proven wrong before. They’re not my bet but to be frank, a lot of the alternatives are stinking too.

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I am not sure if the currency will drop or not. But I think it’s better to invest in US assets (like equities) but not in USD for sure

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When checking the USD/CHF swaps, it is exptected that it will decrease further:

(USD CHF Terminzinsen - Investing.com)

When checking all my assets excl. pension fund, I am with roughly 92% into USD. Sometimes I ask myself, if this is the right approach when taking into account, that it is expected that USD/CHF will heavily loose in value in 20y, but in my eyes, there are not that many other options:

  • Even when I am buying an SMI/SPI/SLI ETF, these companies are generating money abroad. Moreover, there would be a huge home bias.
  • Even international companies are listing themselves in the US. So, VTI or MSCI USA is - in my personal opinion - already a very broad index, which is why I put my 3a, vested benefits and my general porftolio into it. Therefore, I do not invest additionally into other parts of the world.
  • I thought about having an hedged ETF (e.g. XD9C.SW) beside VTI, let’s say 50:50. But when comparing the USD/CHF and XD9C.SW with XD9U.L since 2018, the performance difference was way higher (29.95%) than the currency loss (-14.54%).
  • Another option would be an USD margin; if the USD looses in value, also my debt looses in value, vice versa. Currently, I can get a loan for approx. 4.7%; I would not exceed 30% of my portfolio value. I can deduct this interest rate and ideally, VTI moves higher than 4.7% p.a. :slight_smile:

There are not much alternatives, since the US market is the broadest and biggest one. I will continue purchasing an US etf, since the advantages are higher than the drawbacks.

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Based on your comments , you believe USD would lose value against CHF over time. But this is not the same thing as investments in US companies would lose value over time.

If US companies continue to grow to compensate for the currency devaluation, then there is no problem. In fact this is what has been happening since 2005. CHF has gained approx 1.7% per annum against USD. But the investments in US stocks has not been an issue

Edit -: however, I would not say the same for unhedged US government bonds. They might not be very good investment at this moment in my personal opinion.

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You see, I was so focused on USD/CHF that I did not differentiate between investments and currency itself.

I shall now sleep better at night :smiley:

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Interestingly, the absolute value of Swiss CPI / LIK for September is down by -0.55% from its peak in May and June…