Even better, there’s also one on anti-fragility. Must have been written by a genius, at least the author seems to be very pleased with his own ideas 
I’ve also been recommended Skin in the game a while back, but haven’t read it yet. Interesting he’s still introduced as Black Swan author; it must have been 15 years.
Let’s see what is causing the next collapse. As per this thread, we are good until 27, so there’s time to prepare.
All I know is my account currently has more money than it did before, and I haven’t bought anything since May so…all good!
There, fixed it for you.
If anything, those sophisticated snake oil salesmen take advantage of the financially inept customers.
BTW, this is true at all levels: from willy nilly retail investor to supposedly professional institutional investor.
As a last resort, we can always just change this topic title and extend it to 29 or beyond and we’ll be good.
Easy-peasy.
Or change it to 3027, so any discussions about diversification, withdrawal rates and sequence of return risk would be sorted for everyone here.
New Economist cover highlights the US economy as envy of the world
It’s over.
I also see some yellow press writing about S&P’s all time highs…
Time to get out 
On reddit you have people claiming they’re selling their houses/getting loans to buy VOO, sounds like the top is in 
Then again UBS and Morgan Stanley (and others, I think) have adjusted their expectations for a 6000 EOY value for the S&P500, that’s what, if it materializes, ~2.5% gain left for the year?
My Barber doesn’t speak german very well and I don’t take taxis. Has anyone here got financial advices from those two categories?
USDCHF goes up for 4 weeks and is back to the mid-August level. I would expect the opposite development. What’s happening? SNB is cutting more than it was expected and Fed less?
The same directional move is happening in most major currency pairs involving USD. I don’t think it’s a matter of the SNB policy but has more to do with either FED policies/expectations thereof and/or confidence in the USD as a currency.
The strengthening of the USD started a few days after the FED’s September rate cut, so I would say it is linked to that. It’s not very intuitive (rate cuts should weaken the currency) but the currency markets have had counter-intuitive reactions to monetary policies at least since 2022.
My uninformed guess would be that inflation and FED overnight rate expectations combine themselves to create this situation. US inflation expectations have gone up so it’s possible market participants expect the FED to have to raise back rates in the future.
The move doesn’t seem that significant to me in the grander scheme of things (even when taken in the scope of the YTD variations of the pair). I would peg it to the usual fluctuations of currencies exchange rates (which can be large) and not try too hard to derive longer term prognostications out of it.
Markets had priced in multiple 50 bps cuts from the Fed. Now they are realising that might not happen over the next few months as previously anticipated.
Markets are now expecting a victory of Trump who plans to introduce tariffs on foreign imports which would cause inflation, thus higher fed rates and as a result the USD is strengthening. In case Kamala wins you can expect a reversal…
Personally and according to a plan set 6 months ago, I’ll be building only on CHF assets until some dust settles. Not touching global or US assets, just not adding to them until they make up ~25% of my liquid NW. Could take a couple of years.
You mean you only invest in Swiss stocks these days ?
Not yet, I am building cash reserves as per a decision back in May, projected to achieve the number I want by Dec, then from 2025 I will split buying between 3a (US-heavy, but not in the mood to play with it) and SLICHA most likely. So in terms of liquid assets it’ll be Swiss for a while.
I see
So you mean you want to get to a stage in couple of years that 25% of your portfolio ( excluding 3a) is either CHf cash or Swiss stocks.
I’ve been doing something similar by liquidating part of my portfolio and sticking it into Pillar 2. It’s nice to have a stack of cash instead of a constantly fluctuating portfolio.
Absolutely. I question the whole assumption that ‘stocks only go up in the long term’. Maybe they’ve only gone up because population and economic activity have been going up. If population declines, then maybe the stock market follows.
Somewhat, part of why I still believe in the US is because it’s a destination for the world’s bright and ambitious, and lacks many of the societal and linguistic challenges Europe has. But yeah, have thought about it many times.
@PhilMongoose hmmm, it’s consumption that drives productivity and profitability, and the world pop growth is accelerating, not slowing down. Indeed if the world pop was to drop then possibly it’d affect market growth.
Overall not that worried in my timeframe.
I’d question this assumption, is this based on data? All continents except for africa have birth rate below the replacement rate. Global birth rate is at 2.3 and declining: Fertility rate, total (births per woman) | Data
Most models are more optimistic than the reality (many countries are seeing birth rates dropping much faster than predicted):
edit: and figuring out how to embrace/leverage migration is probably critical for most European countries, though it also comes with many ethical questions.