You mean you bought an gold miner ETF such as GDX.SW or AUCO.SW ?
Yesterday, I bought AEM. I already own NEM, GLD and GOLD.
I will be buying GDX and even GDXJ (purely speculation) I’ll moving a portion of bonds in to gold, gold stocks and uranium.
I’ll increase Gold/Gold stocks to ~6% of my portfolio.
Interesting… looks like beginning of 2024 was a good time to buy into these. You are fine with the high volatility of this sector?
I only started investing in Feb this year. In that time, GLD was up 27%, GOLD up 37% and NEM up 61%.
I’m counting on it! 
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I have little doubt that S&P 500 will reach 6000 before the end of this year. The question for me is rather: what will USDCHF be by then? 0.8? 0.75?
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SNB will most likely intervene and stop CHF from become too strong too quickly.
Export industry is already crying 
What about at the end of next year?
7500 and 0.6.
Well, seriously I would say 6600 and 0.75.
I hope you‘re currency hedging then haha
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What do you think about tobacco stocks? I am tempted by the dip in PM, BTI, IMB.
Based on REER data, it seems last 10 year average for CHF REER is around 110
Right now it is at 116 (as of 1 AUG) or so… so I think SNB would try to get this REER back to the long term average. The question is how. There is not much room to cut interest rates too much.
At this moment, consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is 279 USD. S&P is about 20.5 times that
If we expect market multiple continues, then we can expect S&P 500 at 6350 by end of 2025 (based on consensus estimate being 310 USD). If market goes to lower forward PE, then following would be the estimate
It seems , this would all depend on what is the narrative at that point because S&P 500 is priced to perfection and need to continue earnings growth to keep multiples.
| Fwd PE by end of 2025 | S&P 500 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|
| 22 | 6820 |
| 21 | 6510 |
| 20.5 | 6355 |
| 20 | 6200 |
| 19 | 5890 |
| 18 | 5580 |
| 17.5 | 5425 |
| 17 | 5270 |
| 16.5 | 5115 |
| 16 | 4960 |
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I really don’t understand the markets. They were down yesterday after the half-expected 50bps cut. And now stock markets are booming again.
Interestingly, long end of yield curve is up.
It‘s really strange.
Long end of yield curve going up is probably a good thing. Signs of yield curve normalizing and probably markets not expecting the crazy near zero rates in the future
I interpreted it as risk of inflation being priced.
Maybe, but then I would think the 10 year rate goes up as well, but it fell.
Regarding the yield curve, first, the move doesn’t seem very significant to me, then I interpret it as short term bills/bonds loosing some of their attractiveness and people trying to lock up the longer term rates before the interests go lower. More buying pressure → lower price → higher yield.
Regarding stocks, it’s not been rare these years (at least since 2020, when I’ve started looking for it more closely) that markets over react on one day and then compensate on the next one. This time, stocks reacted as expected at first (prices going up), then corrected until the close (prices mostly flat from the open), then went up again on Thursday.
My best try at understanding it would be that investors are all over the world, so don’t necessarily react with the same intensity at all times (which may have to do with the opening hours of the exchanges they’re trading on, or the availability of their analysts), plus our analyses of a stock can change from when they’re done in the moment to when we’ve slept one night on it (I’m particularly prone to that myself). I usually expect things to be more or less ‘normal’ (take that with the usual mountain of salt) after 24h.
I haven’t dug into it but options and future markets probably have an impact too.
Edit: for an example of potential factor affecting the delay in prices correcting: different investors have bonds from different countries in their portfolio. Those can’t be traded at all times and, for some, they need to be sold in order for more stocks to be bought with the proceeds.
Edit 2: we may also have more algorithmic trading right away, then adjusted analyses on individual stocks later on, which both move the market.
In my opinion, it could very well be an asset allocation topic. There is still lot of money in cash accounts which would now receive less interest. This would move money into markets.
However equities still need to keep up because they are again priced to perfection.
That’s a nice overlay. where do you get that?
I looked on https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/ and from 18th to 19th, the 10 year went down quite a bit.