Chronicles of 2026 - the next chapter

Unfortunately we have to realize that he is only the head figure, the people behind him think the same, just they don’t openly say so.
I don’t expect changes in the coming years :frowning:

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I disagree and the reason is twofold: first Trump is running a borderline cult of personality type government, it seems, with everyone’s career tied to his person and whims. Sure he has strings and they are being pulled, but I doubt this will continue without a strong figurehead. The second reason, related to the first, is that he is already old, rich and hence is probably yoloing it, I can’t see someone carrying this on easily, there’s too much career/reputational damage at stake. I could be wrong, of course.

Well you are right about the personality. But I think we all need to remember that large powers do everything in their power to keep their power.

Someone else will come. They might act nice. Methods might change, but goals wouldn’t

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I have the feeling that Trump worst still has to come?

Probably? Maybe? The night is darker just before the dawn, they say, but it can be pretty dark already before that and there’s no way to know how much darker it can get before it doesn’t anymore.

As always, plan for the worst but hope for the best. Make sure you can handle hardship if it happens and maintain a high spirit, a good bunch of friends and positive family relationships (as much as possible) at all times.

I am aligned with this as well but it leads me down a different path: like the internet in 2000, near term benefits/impact of AI are vastly overestimated, long term… vastly underestimated.

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Are you changing your portfolio to hedge the above?

Good question. I am too low in tech - a kind of opposite if FOMO.

Once a position i have turns into cash due to a written call option, i may take a more significant albeit very diversified tech position.

My tech exposure in my freizugigkeitskonto is probably much hogher already.

My baby sons investment account is high conviction on tech and my wife and i keep adding tonit every month.

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Bessent predicts oil prices could drop as low as $40 after Iran conflict ends and supply floods market

Anybody here willing to bet on this?

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only if given insider knowledge :stuck_out_tongue:

Good timing! It’s the season to fill up the tank! :fuel_pump:

Don't bet against the man, it's already half the price!

Could be. But when exactly will that happen?

(Unsurprisingly, he didn’t offer that insight​:wink:).

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In meantime Diesel is 190 USD (equivalent)
What no one tells us is that Crude oil price is not the only factor, refining capacity is also out and hence the automotive fuel supply is very constrained. Many countries are short.

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Assuming (not a stretch of the imagination!) Trump loses the mid-terms big time, what do people on the forum think the impact on your investments will be during the 2 years afterwards? Are you taking any actions based on that?

I’m in any case reducing my written options exposure and am considering (for a while now) to shift more from equity to cash, but haven’t made the move just yet. Am already shifitng out of more and more individual stocks and moving to ETF’s to reduce my stress / time spent.

I sold-out massively in 2016 on Trump’s first term, expecting a full-blown chaos. It was a big-time miss of a rocket that came right after. I stayed cautious in 2025, again, missing out big time, then riding the April wave down and up.

I probably won’t do much based on mid-terms. There seems to be no successor yet, so anything I do will be a coin toss.

(On the democratic side I am crossing all my fingers strongly for AOC, but she might lose to Gavin and Trump can’t hopefully run again)

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Not shifting anything, but decided to continue saving but not buying, so will stack some cash.

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Yeah, that sounds like a path to me.

It’s so difficult to predict the impact. SOme say Trump will become a lame duck which may calm the world down, but others say he doesn’t care about the mid-terms and will just go all out crazy with his ruling by decree because he has nothing to lose.

If not mistaken, generally a shift to Democrat rule in the US leads to a good stock market… but an acceleration vs. what’s already been a nice run is unrealistic?

Days like this I’m glad I’m well diversified - oil goes up, fine, some stocks take a hit but others benefit.