I love this meme:
The middle one gives more to discuss, that’s why every forum revolves around the middle one.
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I think everyone here is different, everyone can only speak for her-/himself.
As for myself: yes, I see a difference between giving advice and acting on my own behalf. Acting on my own behalf is much more active, trying out new things, questioning the existing (VT-and-chill). This is all good for someone like me who is interested in this topic and has fun spending time on it. But for friends and family who want to spend as little time as possible on financial topics, I currently recommend VT-and-chill in slight variations adapted to their specific situation.
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I think there are many ways to invest. The VT and chill is simple and suits a lot of young people with a long investment horizon.
However, not everybody wants to take 100% stock market risk, esp. as they approach retirement age.
I have broadly 60/40 risk and even in the stock component, I prefer steady, profitable boring companies, in general. On the one hand, this means I will not be getting 20% annual returns from NVDA going to the moon, but likewise, the downside is also reined in.
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Buy low, sell high.
Sometimes people confuse this with buy red, sell green.
Sometimes red can be low, but not always.
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@dbu unleash the “here we go”?
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Its because most people believe that investing in stocks is like buying a fixed deposit with higher interest rate. They don’t pay attention to volatility that comes with it and what impact it might have on their psychological well being.
in addition, unless you are invested for 5-7 years, there is a high chance that bear market will bring the whole portfolio under water (meaning the value will go below the invested capital) and this is a tough pill to swallow for post even though in theory that’s how equity investment works
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Lower than yesterday.
Selling at any stage (that is not rebalancing towards target weights/glidepath to retirement or using it to fund your life) to me is admitting you are not comfortable with your asset allocation (or weren’t informed enough on what you are getting into) and you should re-assess your risk tolerance and said allocation.
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while this is a common quote and intuitively correct. In practise, it only really works with hindsight (after the fact). And is, in my opinion, a dangerous paradigm for practical portfolio management particularly for beginners.
For most investors wrong behaviour during market stress is the biggest risk of all. Any strategy that requires constant decision making (e.g. sell/buy) based on market situations - beyond balancing - is particularly prone to behavioural risks.
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Let’s check:
And my strategy for 2026 was energy, which has already gained a lot.
What is still undervalued? Various SaaS companies: CRM (new position and now 6th biggest in portfolio, currently 10% down), MORN, DOCU, etc. CHTR is more risky/uncertain but risk/reward is good enoug to go on at 11th biggest position (currently 11% down). Let’s check back on 24 months if these pan out (or maybe longer if Iran tips the world into a stagflationary recession).
My current portfolio breakdown:
| Classification | Yield | MV% |
|---|---|---|
| + Oil&Gas Midstream | 6.8% | 8.5% |
| + Oil | 2.6% | 8.4% |
| + Tobacco | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| + Gold miners | 1.9% | 7.8% |
| + Commodities | 2.4% | 7.2% |
| + Natural Gas | 3.1% | 6.7% |
| + SaaS Plus | 1.6% | 6.4% |
| + SaaS | 0.6% | 5.7% |
| + Uranium | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| + Turnaround | 2.6% | 5.2% |
| + REIT | 6.1% | 5.1% |
| + Oil Refiners | 2.3% | 4.4% |
| + Insurance | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| + Consumer Staples | 5.6% | 4.4% |
| + Healthcare | 5.7% | 3.7% |
| + Health Insurance | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| + Tailrisk Hedge | 1.8% | |
| + Software Infra | 1.6% | |
| + Silver Miners | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| + Dividends | 5.0% | 0.8% |
| + Swiss | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| + Oil Services | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Total | 3.4% | 100.0% |
As you can see, it is heavily tilted towards energy and real assets and is designed to be more resistant to a stagflationary environment than S&P 500.
Gold was out of favour when I weighted it. Same with energy (even now is still out of favour after gains post-Iran). Saas I started buying this year as people panic-sold due to AI fears (these are still risky as many are long duration and will be vulnerable to an economic downturn and increased interest rates that could be triggered by an oil shock). Tobacco and commodities have been out of favour for a while. Uranium is niche and may be making a comeback.
One can eke out more than what a simple ETF will give you. It’s just diminishing returns for the time invested.
Replacing cash with a stocks ETF and holding for decades is already quite hard (e.g. coping with volatility, not falling down a get rich quick rabbit hole instead). But there is a near certain outperformance after just a few decades that is likely also sizable.
You can do better than that (e.g. leverage, alts) but outperformance over a simple stocks ETF is not certain, is harder (e.g. blowup risk, difficulty evaluating performance), takes more time (e.g. management, gathering knowledge), and is of smaller size.
Most people would be served well by just investing that time into their careers instead. But many only end up spending a lot of time in such spaces because they like discussing such topics. That doesn’t mean it is the most efficient use of their time. It’s more like a hobby.
Also, just because something is discussed by someone, doesn’t mean it does actually have those better metrics.
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What a roller coaster this year! After reaching +13%, my portfolio crashed down to +4% and currently sitting at +8%. I’m thankful I’m still in the green this year considering all that has happened. Now waiting for US markets to open…
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I’m curious to see how the market opens. I’m suspecting a big risk off rotation.
Bonds have failed to stabilize 60/40 portfolio and seem to be caught in tug of war between protection from recession and fears of inflation.
Maybe SaaS will get hammered again.
There’s a silver lining to every cloud:
Funny how important round number levels are…
Urgh. Things were looking good, I was up 1.5% sometime today and I got home late from work to cash in and everything has fallen back to around +0% again. 
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He’s already told us what he’s gonna do: he’s going to send ground troops in Iran. What else would “I’m willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz stays close” possibly mean?
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I’ll pack up my toys and go home?
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Your bet against mine. 
You don’t move troops in an area just for a show of force right before signaling weakness and a willingness to retreat. Trump has shown a willingness to use “Truths” to deceive, feign parlay and then attack before the deadline for the end of the parlays before. Iran knows something about it.
I tend to agree that all these posts/Truths are distractions. Most likely there will be an invasion soon in Iran.