I’m curious to see how the market opens. I’m suspecting a big risk off rotation.
Bonds have failed to stabilize 60/40 portfolio and seem to be caught in tug of war between protection from recession and fears of inflation.
Maybe SaaS will get hammered again.
There’s a silver lining to every cloud:
Funny how important round number levels are…
Urgh. Things were looking good, I was up 1.5% sometime today and I got home late from work to cash in and everything has fallen back to around +0% again. 
He’s already told us what he’s gonna do: he’s going to send ground troops in Iran. What else would “I’m willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz stays close” possibly mean?
I’ll pack up my toys and go home?
Your bet against mine. 
You don’t move troops in an area just for a show of force right before signaling weakness and a willingness to retreat. Trump has shown a willingness to use “Truths” to deceive, feign parlay and then attack before the deadline for the end of the parlays before. Iran knows something about it.
I tend to agree that all these posts/Truths are distractions. Most likely there will be an invasion soon in Iran.
Anyway. Market is green and I’m selling. Margin down to 5% now.
So… What exactly happened for this greenery to come about? 
(Other than Spain, France and Italy not letting US to fly over)
I think there are some indications Iran is actually open to talk: Ihre Datenschutzeinstellungen
we’ll see …
Have no other numbers on recent sentiments changes besides your graph but I think we’ve been hearing for years that sentiment is bad while the market is generally richly valued.
It’s from here:
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
They have historical data. Basically, you do the opposite of the crowd, when sentiment is rock bottom, you buy, and vice versa.
For example, look the 1 year bearish high and 1 year bearish lows…
De-escalation hopes… as a third US carrier approaches…
A dead cat bounced 
There is a comment from US that they will leave Iran in 2-3 weeks whether there is a deal or not. So basically saying we did what we had to do, now others deal with the mess on their own but we are going to back home
Maybe stock market likes this.
BBC Reported. A few hours ago, we heard from Donald Trump at the White House.
Here is a round up of what he said:
Trump told reporters the US “will be leaving [Iran] very soon” and US military action could end as soon as “two or three weeks”
He says the US has achieved the goals set before airstrikes against Iran began late last month in conjunction with Israel. He says the primary goal of curtailing Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon has been reached and the US was now "finishing the job
Trump says the US now dominates Iranian skies and has also achieved regime change following the killings of many senior political and military leaders. He described the new leaders in Tehran as “much less radicalised” and “more rational” compared to their predecessors
He said once the US was sure Iran would not be able to “come up with a nuclear weapon” then “we’ll leave whether we have a deal or not. It’s irrelevant now, it’s possible that we’ll have a deal because they want to make a deal”.
He went on to say Iranian leaders are “begging to make a deal” with the US to end the war, which has previously been denied by Iran
He adds that the war could end without a deal brokered between both sides
On the war’s impact on rising fuel prices, the president says they will come down as soon as the US ends its military actions
This has become like the little boy crying wolf, eventually the wolf really does come. Or, “there’s nothing new under the sun”. Here quoted both Aesop and King Solomon
“We broke it but we don’t own it” - leaving Iran with more leverage than it had prior to his involvement? What a splendid TACO move.
He will speak to the nation at 9pm ET tonight. Is that it, or will the TACO be unTACOed? Then again, presidential support has hit new lows recently. Maybe Cuba is an easier target.
Don’t know and can’t say. Only hope I have is that Europe finally comes together and make an independent foreign policy. But I am not sure if it’s possible to do in Europe what China was able to do.
I think what we are witnessing might be similar to what our ancestors experienced before WW2. A large army would come and take over whatever , do whatever and then same thing would repeat few years later. Sometimes they will succeed , sometimes they will not.
Reasons would be personal in most cases driven by bravado, vanity and over confidence . Similar to movie TROY 2004.
Europe wasn’t able to come together in the scariest parts of the war with Ukraine after Russian gas was cut off nor during the covid pandemic.
We’re screwed.
