Chronicles of 2026 - the next chapter

Soon you can lend to Google:

Maybe I’m missing imagination. But how does this make sense for any investor?

BTW, the article mentions a 100 year bond from Motorola. Is that one still going?

1 Like

i love Ben Felix but i didn’t feel this video was amazing, because it didn’t address an obvious counter argument:

Higher levels of concentration in non-US markets should probably be expected because they are just way smaller than the US.

To put it differently: sure, if you look at Europe there may be many countries with higher levels of concentration. But these countries are individually way smaller than the US market as a whole. If you look at all of Europe together as a single market, it will be substantially less concentrated. (Nestle is 20% of Switzerland! But only 2% of Europe)

2 Likes

Sure the comparison may not be that great. But I think the main point of low correlation between concentration and returns can be made just fine.

1 Like

Probably more of a collector item than an investor’s dream though at the right price, some institutions with 100+ years horizon might find it attractive.

1 Like

I’m sorry for my limited world view. But I can’t think of any such institution.

1 Like

Holy Grail Knights have a long investment horizon.

Choose wisely 


3 Likes

I assume some people might also use that to engineer things based on the yield curve.

1 Like

Don’t quote me on it but I would guess some sovereign funds designed to generate/maintain wealth up into the distant future. Maybe some pension funds with permanently renewing liabilities or some such.

I wouldn’t be attracted to it (will Alphabet even still be there in 100 years?) but for the proper price and/or the right interest, I’m sure the market can manage to price in the risk associated with such a bond.

Edit: to be clear, I think the market could manage to price in the risk but I doubt the buyer(s) will actually do it. There’s too much hype around both Google and AI for me to trust the market on such an item. It’s a bond, it goes up if Alphabet’s credit rating goes up or interest rates / other expected returns go down. It goes down on the opposite events. It’s not like Alphabet will pay anything else to their borrowers than the interest already baked in (and the face value at maturity).

For last few weeks my portfolio has been oscillating wildly bouncing up and down, but each time, it made lower lows and lower highs, which was no a good sign. Today, it broke out of this downward channel and made a new all time high - hopefully a sign that things are on the up again.

2 Likes

Yes, but in which currency? :wink:

You know about the oldest active bond, right? A bond issued in Utrecht in mid 1600s which is still valid as the issuer’s successor is still around, also still pays a coupon, about 15EUR/year.

7 Likes

I use a balance sheet in CHF for all my belongings which are in CHF, EUR and USD. Then I translate the CHF equity to EUR and USD. It is never fair, most of my debt is in CHF because of the low interest. If the CHF goes up my USD value goes down double.

But anyhow, as I was criticized for only publishing new highs in USD I started to include the other currencies too. New high in all currencies. Forex fluctuations are peanuts compared with stock fluctuations. And the best currencies are stocks, every stock is its own currency.

1 Like

My reply was to Phil with a tongue in cheek (riffing to the comments that you indeed get all the time) :slight_smile:

Let me guess. It was issued by a tulip company :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

2 Likes

Nope, it really is a good story:

3 Likes

There is also a cool Tom Scott video about it:

1 Like

Thank you, you just gave me another idea for my future collection of financial curiosities, next to SNB shares.

3 Likes

Do you ever play poker? Sometimes, you bet/call and end up in a hand that you should have folded earlier and end up in a no-good situation.

I feel the same here. I wanted to buy more XOM but was waiting for a better price and so only at 1/3 my desired allocation. XOM was up to $138 when I posted the above.

"OK. Maybe I wait and hope for a pull-back. (
some days later
) XOM continues up each day until $155.

1 Like

with these very long bonds, it’s quite counter intuitive how inflation kicks in

assuming constant 2% inflation, the real value of the principal returned is only 1/1.02**100 = 13.8% of the value at issuance

can’t bring myself to do the actual calculation on the coupon but i guess most of the real value is coming from payments in the first 50 years

1 Like