Chronicles of 2026 - the next chapter

Then according to what @JEPG says it seems logic what to do with options :smiley:

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CHF / USD fell, so stocks corrected as lot of income of Swiss companies is generated abroad

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Wow. The move in XOM really caught me off-guard. My buy orders have been left in the rear-view mirror. I was really hoping to buy in the $80s and $90s and even had orders at $100.

Try Funari. Can be simulated in IBKR.

It is a dilemma. You think a stock will go up, but you want it to come down for buying. I use (as almost always) a compromise:

I use simulated funari orders, I think a Japanese invention. The order stands as limit until shortly before the market closes and then converts to a market-on-close order.

You simulate this in the Trader Workstation (TWS) as two orders with the same One-Cancels-All (OCA) label, one is a limit with a GTD (Good-Til-Date) 15 minutes before the market closes (for NYSE, for NASDAQ you could use 10 minutes I think, but with 15 you are on the safe side). The second order with the same OCA label is just a Market-On-Close (MOC) for the same number of shares.

I use this order type for over 20 years and never had a double execution. For the price difference, this is maybe one of the only places where the technical analysis helps, maybe the Average True Range.

Depends a bit on the stock market, but U.S. markets tend to have nice liquidity in the closing auction. And still, you may get it cheaper during the day.

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and XOM up 4% today.

I think the big market-cap weighted indices are awaiting a big correction. They consist mainly of very few companies with gigantic market cap that will not make their stock price in centuries, but are bought anyhow in much too big quantity by all that ETF youngsters. And finally that is probably not enough to maintain such stock prices.

For the day the U.S. dividend 100 index is actually 1.5% in the green while Nasdaq is 2.3% in the red as the SP500, 1.4% in the red.

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I kinda agree with your risk detection.

But I don’t recall anyone highlighting every time sp500 was over-performing us divi 100.

I guess this time is different.

Edit: we’re all gonna die (yes we are indeed). 2026 is apocalypse.


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Not really, for me it was the best year ever so far (just a month and 2 days
) in the stock market. Was expecting a loss and somehow my momentum strategy landed 1.7% in the green for the day. And I got 16(!) messages about stocks at new highs in my portfolio today, a new record I think.

It is not different this time, but it seems that reality catches up with those mega-cap weights in the indices.

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Just not yet.

Given the level of fiscal spending, and potentially loosening monetary policy, 2026 should be a ridiculously strong year.

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Stocks react to AI legal industry specific plug-in release:

Wow, seems I got out of TRI at the exactly right moment:

I remember the first version of my dividend strategy did keep positions for two more years. That brought in a lot of unnecesary losses like the one I missed from TRI. Lucky I changed that in 2020.

Addendum: not that CNA performed too good, but at least a nice dividend and no loss:

It was bound to happen, very early on when ChatGPT launched I remember reading on LinkedIn about 4 LLMs pitted against junior legal associates, the LLMs wiped the floor with the associates for both speed and accuracy. It’s this sort of knowledge worker/structured data type tasks that we (humans) can’t compete any more than Paul Bunyan could compete against a chainsaw. I remember watching this cartoon as a 5-6 year old kid and cheering for Bunyan, only to be disappointed at the end.

@Dr.PI maybe move this thread out of “Coffee”?

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Why, is there anything important here?

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Argh it fires up my autisms to see the other “Chronicles” threads under “Investing/other” :stuck_out_tongue:

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Hum, this feels like a sector pivot or is it too soon to tell?

Seen this daily pattern quite a bit in 2026, I dare to make a prediction how the day ends.

Don’t worry, be happy. 2026 is great.

Illustration courtesy of Google Gemini.

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Any bets for this weekend regarding Iran ?

Goddammit, I haven’t built up the oil slice of my portfolio yet!

I think that’s what it is
 so far it seems VXUS is outperforming US and tech is underperforming legacy.