Chronicles of 2025

Jury is still out, of course, but so far this seems to have aged better than milk, worse than cheese, maybe more like cottage cheese or so (what is one month fermented milk called?).

Trump said he will not back off the baseline 10% afaik?

So depends on the definition of bulk then :sweat_smile:

1 Like

While I think your implicit question is true, I believe the market reacts to the uncertainty of the “non-bulk” tariffs which seem to have been blown out of the water?

Bulk tariffs of 10%? Sure, the efficient market* prices things out to whatever it thinks is fair.


* Seems contradictory at first, Goofy stating the market is efficient, but I'll add that I think the market is great at pricing things at the whim of new information available (but still sucks at pricing in the fundamentals in the short term [but, but, does fine at the latter over decades as well]).
1 Like

The 10% baseline tariffs are not reciprocal tariffs. The reciprocal ones have been put on 90 day delay (except for China).

Well officially

Reciprocal tariffs = 10% universal tariffs + ad on tariffs which president can increase or decrease as per his discretion

Of course neither are these tariffs reciprocal or logical. So let’s just call them Tariffs.

5 Likes

Really, I thought I heard Trump refer to only the add on tariffs as the reciprocal ones - and calculated according to their very scientific reciprocal formula.

Here is the original text

Sec. 2. Reciprocal Tariff Policy. It is the policy of the United States to rebalance global trade flows by imposing an additional ad valorem duty on all imports from all trading partners except as otherwise provided herein. The additional ad valorem duty on all imports from all trading partners shall start at 10 percent and shortly thereafter, the additional ad valorem duty shall increase for trading partners enumerated in Annex I to this order at the rates set forth in Annex I to this order. These additional ad valorem duties shall apply until such time as I determine that the underlying conditions described above are satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.

The whole thing was announced with that chart which was the sum of A+B …

  • A was applied because US believes they are strongest & largest and hence others should pay even if they have a Free trade agreement (Australia, Korea etc)
  • B was applied to level the playing field for so called non trade barriers using lazy maths
2 Likes

Who can blame the markets.
If you think about it , for three months all we are seeing is announcements but no implementation.

Maybe they also got tired of taking White House seriously

Maybe next week they will announce a deal with India where India will reduce tariffs on things America produce but Indians are not going to buy or whereby India would promise it buy things (oil, planes) that they were anyways going to buy . Victory #2 after Ukraine mineral deal where Ukraine got no security and US got no minerals.

the China tariffs are very much implemented

1 Like

If you can call them implemented.
People have pre bought stuff at low tariffs and are not buying stuff with high tariffs

So if the deal is made soon, in reality no goods will pay any tariffs because new imports will again be at low tariffs.

This showdown has shown that almost everything that is produced elsewhere is not going to be produced in US (shoes, iPhones or diamonds). So focus should be on selling things (to other countries) that US actually produces (oil, defence stuff, services) to improve trade imbalance and also to reduce spending in US because it’s not sustainable to keep borrowing (from other countries or public) to keep spending

I am happy that for few days market can go back to to ATH before the next soap opera begins

Is this normal?

Honest question. As I don’t know if US army is used to have such events.

Could it be that your contributions were made when VWRL was below today’s price and also below ATH?

In other words only as of 3rd April?

If your contributions were only made after 2nd April, then the numbers make sense

No, it’s not.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-military-parades-us-have-changed-180968102/

To be fair the headline is kinda clickbaity, many countries might do celebration for a 250th anniversary of their armed forces.

Somehow i read it’s about 79th birthday of Trump

Buffett stepping down from chairman of BRK in the end of the year - my claim to fame will be that I first got BRK shares when Charlie was alive :stuck_out_tongue:

3 Likes

It takes a great man to organize the transition, then step down in a way that allows to monitor any disruption that might happen. Warren Buffet really deserves his place among the greats.

5 Likes

That was a very long window of opportunity :grin::heart_hands:

3 Likes

imho. not for FIRE but for FIRN (…never)

Is this real life? :sweat_smile:

1 Like