Chronicles of 2025

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Comments from US presidents are becoming very dangerous now . I think we are not in negotiations phase anymore. It seems like an war (just not a war involving military).. half of things said by US govt is not even factual but they are using it to justify their actions

For example -: buying more from a country than how much you sell is not subsidy. It depends on what the other countries produce and what we produce.

Are our investments in US safe or should we get worried?

We only have to survive 4 years :wink:

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Ready to go shopping today? Edit: personally sticking to my plan of not getting out of bed for less than 15% drop and holding fast for 5-6 months. Edit 2: mini futures predict a 2% drop today. Boo effing hoo.

I saw a suicide note on r/options.

@Abs_max you may still be at the “denial” stage, (“he can’t possibly have said that”) I think it’s part of the “art of the bullshit deal”, there’s no policy, only short-term gain and pettiness. If he tanks the US’s 401k what does that do to a politician?

There’s still a lot of uncertainty, some think tariffs won’t go through/will be temporary.

(Either due to negotiations, tho unclear to me what there is to negotiate, or court actions)

I currently expects market to not have priced something more permanent/full blown trade war (maybe rightly so, hard to know in hindsight).

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No idea
This seems to be pointless in my view

Now Trump says EU is way out of line. He continues to talk about trade deficit for goods and conveniently ignores trade surplus for services. US chose to become a service economy and move manufacturing outside. Now they blame other nations to supply them goods.

I don’t understand what to make of this. Hopefully western media will be as harsh as they are for china. However I doubt so.

Time for EU to become independent in Tech services or else it would be used as coercion in future.

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What?

Which part? Western media are plenty harsh.

@dbu if you’re waiting with bated breath to plug the “Here we go” joker meme, please make it meaningful this time, make it count you know, say you can only use it once per year or something :wink:

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I don’t see the dip yet :wink:

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Me neither, but “analysts” are on meltdown mode since yesterday.

i understand that this is not the point, but one should also consider the absolute value of EU banks vs Mag7. EU banks probably have total market cap of < 1T based on Europe: largest banks by market cap 2024 | Statista, vs >10T for Mag7

So 1. actual value creation from mag7 is much higher than EU banks, and 2. if you had tilted towards EU banks to capture this growth, you would have needed a much bigger deviation from a market cap based portfolio to have gotten a meaningful gain than for the mag7

The random trade war

If you use such long time frame, any dip wouldn’t be noticeable.

But the markets are down today 1.5 - 2% at this moment. Let’s see what happens next

I think the point of the chart was not to tilt anything.
It was to show Mag7 underperformed EU banks for last 12 months. And if that chart is right then how would market cap matter. ?

How did you read my mind! :cowboy_hat_face:

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I have a pretty sticky memory, my friends call me to settle argument about what happened in 2001, that night when Maria kissed Johnny etc, I’m like their wikipedia :slight_smile:

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Soft landing is my hope.

I don’t like it. I didn’t like it before. Tariffs and VAT are poison for the economy. Things can no longer be fabricated where it makes sense, productivity falls and so on. Of course you can pass some costs to the consumers, raising inflation. But you cannot pass all costs to consumers; that is why the VAT is a very bad system for the economy. If a company makes less profit than the VAT it ceases to exist in one way or another.

Smaller countries went almost bankrupt because of tariffs they implemented. Now the spiraling has started (or continued, was started ages ago) and I see no way to stop it.

Europe has tariffs and VAT since a long time. It was just a question of time until other parts of the world start that bullshit too.

It was a nice time while it lasted, made a lot of money. I will continue my investing and probably the added volatility will make me some money too. But I think the fat years are gone, and maybe for a long long time, not only 4 years.

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Lol, those headlines because now we are only 6.5% instead of 8.3% YTD gains :man_facepalming:


Yeah will see when markets open, but right now market participants don’t seem to believe that tariffs will be either implemented or stay long term.