Seriously when do I wake up? Donald Trump signs order to 'make America's showers great again'
It’s not investment related, except maybe if one picks water companies.
The US-China escalation of tariffs reminded me of this :
Wondering if it will end similarly…
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CHF-USD continuing the trend of yesterday. Up 5% in two days now.
USD losing its place as reserve currency. Bond yields rising.
Source please?
So far, it seems that they tiptoe around this subject as they know any moves to oust JPow would be seen very badly and would have immediate ramifications for the dollar.
See also this great interview with Lev Menand:
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For all asking for a source: it was a clickbait , paywalled article. What happened in reality is only two top officials from independent agencies were given permission to be fired temporarily, which could theoretically open the doors to axe the Fed Chair
but on a second lecture it all seemed a bit more theoretical than concrete:
https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/chief-justice-lets-trump-fire-2-officials-fed-chair-powell-s-job-at-risk-125041100161_1.html
I fell into the clickbait trap, amended my post above with a serious article and what it actually said.
Has anyone a graph/table of VT’s price in usd vs chf? In the last months usd lost ~10% vs CHF so I was wondering how bad it’s going in CHF.
On trading view, you can multiply with USDCHF to plot the CHF chart.
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I don’t see much of a difference. I thought it would have been worse. I"m doing something wrong for sure.
I think we need to be careful not to draw too many conclusions
US has dented the trust other countries have in USA - yes
US bond yields are rising - Yes
CHF is gaining versus USD - Yes
But this doesn’t equate to the fact that USD is losing reserve currency status yet. But this also doesn’t mean it wouldn’t lose that status.
In 2000 USD accounted for 71% of global currency reserves. Today the number is close to 58%. This means it’s already under slow decline over the years and if trend continues some other currency might overtake. Who knows.
Some of the US policy actions have maybe accelerated the change. Specially the one in 2022 when Dollar was weaponised against Russia. Now new administration’s style is adding to the decline but it would take many years for something else to take over
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You can use SSAC.SW as a proxy for this. It’s a world ETF traded in CHF & accumulative
This eliminates the discounting of dividends that reduces the NAV of VT over time & also currency impact
52 week high is 85
Today it’s about 68 (-20%)
SSAC and VWRL for VT proxies are about -7.5% YTD in USD, -14.5% YTD in CHF, so one currency weakening while the other is strengthening is having this affect - you’d get less CHF if you were to sell now vs 10 days ago, but the absolute value of the ETF is the same in any currency, is this what you’re looking for?
Yes thank you. I use my small table where I put the cost I’ve paid that year for buying VT vs the value on the following years to see how much is growing each yearly investment. It’s in USD but I might have to do the same in CHF. In CHF would be either imprecise or boringly long to do. Either I take the FX of a specific day (31.12 ?) or I should get the FX of the day I bought them. Since it’s just to get an idea of the situation, I might do it with a single FX per year.
On a side note: if Powell get fired, should I sell all my US assets? 
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Every time I tried to think this through I concluded that it’s not something you can have any control over so don’t stress about it. The FX is what it is, and the more expert people here tell us that hedging - which I don’t understand how it works - doesn’t work in the long run - for reasons I don’t understand - so I say “it is what it is” and get on with life. Having assets in CHF feels better to me, but that’s just “feels”.
Right now my table is just to tell myself “yes, the 6% p.a. rule is true”. Adding CHF might show something similar. It’s just for the feelings.
The thing about Powell instead is a bit serious. I’ve seen what happened to the Turkish lira.
True, it’d mean the robust separation of powers which were part of the US’s success has eroded a lot, and economic policy cannot be trusted, which’d shake off a lot of the premium in the long term, and cause a nosedive in the short term. It’s not just economics, it’s the general erosion of the society and country when countries relapse to autocracy, Turkey is a victim, hopefully not for long though. Nobody lives forever.
Yes but…
funding costs for the US budget deficit are on the rise already, fueled by (1) trust in the US being actively undermined by arbitrary rulings, largely justified with BS arguments, on short notice (2) anticipation of less demand for US treasuries as the US trade deficit is reduced (fewer dollars seeking investment) - both the work of the current administration.
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I am not saying current admin is not causing issues. Of course they are.
But we should expect USD will go down in currency reserves share to 20% next month.
And I am saying it will get painful early on the way.