ma0 - you are asking impossible question. No one knows what it will be tomorrow. If you have VT in your portfolio - then you also agree to carry a risk that having such asset may impact your overall financial health.
Murphy’s Law mate.
You may not be prepared for it, but I tell you this - it’s fully prepared for you.
Kind of like people saying - ‘I am not really interested in politics’ - which immediately makes politics interested in them, because they are easy target.
From the FT: “Investors and analysts pointed to the misfiring of popular trades that aim to exploit differences in price between Treasuries and associated futures contracts, known as the “basis trade”, or between Treasuries and interest rate swaps. As hedge funds cut back on risk and exit those trades, they have been selling Treasuries, piling pressure on markets.”
The basis trade is usually leveraged between 50x to 100x times. Basis trade also unwound in march 2020.
If you assume US market is illiquid, then its not just stocks, also ETFs. So everything will be illiquid - GOOG, BRK, VT, VOO etc
Now let’s say you own non US ETF like VWRL. In this case, the issue VWRL will have is that they cannot buy-sell underlying stocks in US. This means they cannot redeem or create new units. In this case, VWRL can only be traded in secondary market at the price which market participants decide to assign to it.
Market value of VWRL = weighted Market value of Foreign stocks + discounted value for US stocks (discount may range from 0% to 100%)
Which, could be argued, is an inevitable and necessary risk that one must bear when investing in a total market fund, which by definition includes the US.
If you assume US market is illiquid, then its not just stocks, also ETFs. So everything will be illiquid - GOOG, BRK, VT, VOO etc
That would be a big plus for UCITS vs US funds, no?
Not for this reason , but because of US estate tax jurisdiction, I decided to move away from US ETFs (VT, VTI, VXUS) to UCITS ETFs (WEBG, SPDR ACWI, WRDUSY+XMME etc)
From being primarily 100% in US ETFs, now I have majority of my assets in UCITS range
I am fully aware I would lose about 0.1% due to WHT on underlying US dividends. But it’s alright.
I never knew this new drama will unfold but kind of happy that I have reduced my exposure over time. Maybe it doesn’t mean anything but who knows
Slightly more earnest: when the US stocks or bonds become illiquid ... well, I'll open a bottle of champagne ... not to celebrate, though ... just to say goodbye to the world.
(I’m afraid, Prosecco is the only thing we’ve got in stock in our fridge)
Actually, some of us are already halfway there.
Its just that your and my perception of time, and definition of now - are different
For me now was approximately 6 months ago.
Indeed. But I’m sensing that there is no good answer, apart from a hedged fund, which is still too expensive.
So, if:
(a) - the assumptions behind an AA which includes total world funds like VT or VWRL remains valid; *
(b) - exposure to USD in total world funds cannot be reduced, except for very expensive hedged funds;
(c) - US becomes a risk country from a foreign investor’s perspective, which was not the case before;
are true, it seems to me there are - today and likely in the coming months - more advantages from purchasing UCITS than US funds.
What am I missing?
*It could as well be argued that the current situation might justify shifting an entire AA away from US stocks, but I guess it’s a different argument.
Now the 10% would sound like good deal to most countries (versus the made up higher tariffs) and they might not retaliate and US gets 10% universal tariff. US will see this as a win because it’s still a loss for other countries
Singled out China to ensure other countries don’t support China.
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