Unless all this drama is not about factories in first place but to force countries to offer things to US they didn’t need to give in first place. The so called “use economic and military might to get unfair deals in the world because trade is not a win-win , it’s a win-lose and US needs to win and squeeze”
I wouldn’t be surprised that EU ends up making a bad deal with US because of fear. Trump is willing to tank US economy to prove US dominance. EU doesn’t seem to have this will yet to stand up like China. Reason is that every country in the bloc don’t have common interests. They would rather avoid a tariff on one particular thing which suits them. And slowly you run out of things.
But it’s also very tough to negotiate with people who only want to win at your loss. Look at Australia, they have trade surplus with US (US exports to AUS more than US import from AUS) and a Free trade agreement: they got slapped with 10% tariff. What should they offer to US? They are already been “ripped off” by USA.
Unfortunately, the Swiss Government Cloud is not a own federal cloud in Switzerland, even though the name might suggest this at first. The following are involved in this cloud:
I am not an expert but I understand there is a difference between cloud infrastructure, cloud services and cloud applications
I am not sure why there isn’t any European company providing any of these with decent market share. Is this a matter of skillset or scale?
But anyways the whole supply chain is outsourced by EU -: from chips to software. It’s a big ask to gain independence. US & China are only big players in this game it seems
Bert Hubert regularly writes articles on this topic, and I’ve already read some in the past. But I can’t remember exactly what the conclusion was, just this much: it is (as always) complicated.
Covered shorts, or puts, or VIX tracking instruments are hedging tools for investors too. And they should be used. But of course it requires some level of activities and decisions making. And I am not saying it is easy, because selling is much more difficult than buying - especially if you have to cut loses, that’s why you learn by doing it.
For me the market now is where I want it to be, and predicted already in November last year. It wasn’t that difficult to do so. Almost a guaranty - especially CHF.USD.
You look at imbecilic cultists who lead US right now and, you know that the circus can last only so long.
Folks I would recommend that we try to differentiate between the problem and the solution that US govt is using.
They have real problems -: Unfair trade practices (specially from China where State supports the companies to sell below cost), Huge Debt and also Budget deficit
US needs to do something about it and current US administration is trying their way. The main issue is that in this process, following is happening
US is going after everyone rather than countries who might be applying unfair trade practices. For example being poor and having low wage is not unfair trade, it’s just unfair life. But if costs are subdued via specific subsidies for sole purpose to flood the market globally , that’s unfair trade
They think US debt should be paid off by foreigners for the privilege to do business in USA
DOGE is not wrong to work on govt costs. But again they are going after everyone rather than going surgically (some of the EU countries can take some lessons and reduce their budget deficits itself )
Personally I don’t like how EU or poor African & Asian countries are treated by US admin. I also don’t like that weaker is being squeezed. So yes we should criticise the policies but it’s not good approach to criticise American voters for their constitutional right. They voted for who they wanted.
Democracy doesn’t mean that we always need to have people voted who are great. Democracy means people get voted simply because majority wants them.
As reciprocal tariffs go into play. We are officially in bear market for world ETFs. SSAC down 23% versus All time high.
But I believe the most important story is sudden spike in US bonds yields. US10Y is at 4.35% which means there is a lot of selling happening of US bonds as well.
People selling stocks & bonds at same time is worrying.
You cannot unmarry Politics from Economy, unfortunately. Because frankly, since November my daily research become much more stressful and unsatisfying reading the shit that happens, and obviously has impact on the health of my holdings. But that is reality. Politics is economy, and politics means business.
Maybe reducing reading the “shit” will help to have a less stressful time. Imho, just have a plan and stick to it (including signals when and how to change the plan). I think this is quite common here in this forum. But agree some heated discussions in here lately. Emotions everywhere.
We are bombarded with information which appear to be always huge and one step away from catastrophe. If one reads them once a week or every few hours on the social media, it will not change any outcome but the mood.
Just my two bits… and this afternoon I’ll have a nip on a fine whiskey and ignore the news for today. Peace.
You might disagree, but please stick to the forum rules. I’m sure you can discuss the policies without name calling (that just invite non productive debate)
This forum is about investing and, by extension, economy and policy. Name calling in a public discussion doesn’t bring anything useful, so please calm down.
I absolutely love CHF.USD rate these days. There is a message in the current rate. American soft powers and the worlds currency domination times are over.
I would say to be prepared for things we haven’t seen for decades, but you already know this. Those who still have USD exposure - you are gonna have hard times ahead.
You can also recognize anomaly by acknowledging that usually USD, historically was considered ‘safe heaven’. Market down - USD up.
Obviously not this time.
The fun part is - that it was obvious from the November 2024, so if you suffered loses because of that, I’d say - your pain is self-inflicted, but hopefully you have learned something from it.
You can always switch to other currencies - my point is - the world is running away from US domination. Wait for Feds to cut as well, which shouldn’t happen. The only sane person in this government now is JPow, who I think can withstand the Trump pressure. Of course there is a risk that he says - ‘Na, fuck it. I am done here. Have fun assholes’ - And then watch USD vertical line.
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