Chronicles of 2025

Something is in play…

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That is a cloud for the services of the confederation.

I think it is now the right time to stop using cloud services. There are too many SE (SWE whatever) that think that you always need to use the latest services to do whatever you need. Let’s go back to IT Admin that admin and Devs that develop. Since we are there let’s kill electron apps. :smiley:

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Yes, I think there are initiatives or services as Infomaniak but I guess that they have limitations or higher costs. I bet the problem are the infrastructure limitations to hold the requirements that swiss institutions need but I am no expert on this…

There is also SwitchDrive The Switch foundation | Switch …but It is not beeing used extensively I think.

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We might use more Chinese clouds? https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/swiss-government-finalises-cloud-contracts-with-five-tech-firms/47934560

Does anyone know how the US trade deficit looks when services are included? tbh I’m surprised it’s not usually included, i guess in the past it was not so relevant

This is from 2023. Overall trade balance for EU & US was 3% (goods + services)

Don’t be surprised why it’s not included.
The whole reason for the discussion is not to have a logical discussion but to show dominance and squeeze allies into doing what US wants. So the arguments used are the ones which suit them. And of course how many people fact check anything these days? I wouldn’t be surprised if half of people in US think that chart showed by Trump was real

Trade picture

  • The transatlantic trade relationship is the most important commercial relationship in the world.
  • EU-US trade in goods and services reached an impressive €1.6 trillion in 2023. This means that every day, €4.4 billion worth of goods and services cross the Atlantic between the EU and the US.
  • EU-US goods and services trade is balanced: the difference between EU exports to the US and US exports to the EU stood at €48 billion in 2023; the equivalent of just 3% of the total trade between the EU and the US.
  • The total bilateral trade in goods reached €851 billion in 2023. The EU exported €503 billion of goods to the US market, while importing €347 billion; this resulted in a goods trade surplus of €157 billion for the EU.
  • Total bilateral trade in services between the EU and the US was worth €746 billion in 2023. The EU exported €319 billion of services to the US, while importing €427 billion from the US; this resulted in a services trade deficit of €109 billion for the EU.
  • The EU and the US are also major investment partners. EU and US firms have €5.3 trillion worth of investment in each other’s markets (2022 data).
  • US exports of goods and services to the EU support 2.3 million jobs in the US, and EU firms’ investments in the US employ 3.4 million people. To learn more, visit the EU’s Business Footprint in the United States Project.
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Polymarket still believes in Musk-Trump relationship.
Yes, it’s only until May, but the sentiment is clear…

If you are sure about your bet, you can easily 10x your investment with this. :wink:

I feel Trump is on a losing strategy anyway: getting factories take time. Even if the world rushed to build in the US (they aren’t) with permitting, planning, getting materials etc. they will take a long time to build. TSMC took about 4 years to build the Arizona plant.

These factories aren’t going to appear before mid-terms and probably not much before the next election.

Unless Trump changes course, I think we’ll see stagflation in the US and it will get ugly.

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Unless all this drama is not about factories in first place but to force countries to offer things to US they didn’t need to give in first place. The so called “use economic and military might to get unfair deals in the world because trade is not a win-win , it’s a win-lose and US needs to win and squeeze”

I wouldn’t be surprised that EU ends up making a bad deal with US because of fear. Trump is willing to tank US economy to prove US dominance. EU doesn’t seem to have this will yet to stand up like China. Reason is that every country in the bloc don’t have common interests. They would rather avoid a tariff on one particular thing which suits them. And slowly you run out of things.

But it’s also very tough to negotiate with people who only want to win at your loss. Look at Australia, they have trade surplus with US (US exports to AUS more than US import from AUS) and a Free trade agreement: they got slapped with 10% tariff. What should they offer to US? They are already been “ripped off” by USA.

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Swisscom, itnetx, netrics and other companies happily build private cloud services for you.

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Unfortunately, the Swiss Government Cloud is not a own federal cloud in Switzerland, even though the name might suggest this at first. The following are involved in this cloud:

  • Microsoft
  • Oracle
  • IBM
  • Amazon
  • Alibaba

(Source)

See also:

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I am not an expert but I understand there is a difference between cloud infrastructure, cloud services and cloud applications

I am not sure why there isn’t any European company providing any of these with decent market share. Is this a matter of skillset or scale?

But anyways the whole supply chain is outsourced by EU -: from chips to software. It’s a big ask to gain independence. US & China are only big players in this game it seems

Bert Hubert regularly writes articles on this topic, and I’ve already read some in the past. But I can’t remember exactly what the conclusion was, just this much: it is (as always) complicated.

He regularly lobbies for more IT independence.

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Covered shorts, or puts, or VIX tracking instruments are hedging tools for investors too. And they should be used. But of course it requires some level of activities and decisions making. And I am not saying it is easy, because selling is much more difficult than buying - especially if you have to cut loses, that’s why you learn by doing it.
For me the market now is where I want it to be, and predicted already in November last year. It wasn’t that difficult to do so. Almost a guaranty - especially CHF.USD.
You look at imbecilic cultists who lead US right now and, you know that the circus can last only so long.

Folks I would recommend that we try to differentiate between the problem and the solution that US govt is using.

They have real problems -: Unfair trade practices (specially from China where State supports the companies to sell below cost), Huge Debt and also Budget deficit

US needs to do something about it and current US administration is trying their way. The main issue is that in this process, following is happening

  • US is going after everyone rather than countries who might be applying unfair trade practices. For example being poor and having low wage is not unfair trade, it’s just unfair life. But if costs are subdued via specific subsidies for sole purpose to flood the market globally , that’s unfair trade
  • They think US debt should be paid off by foreigners for the privilege to do business in USA
  • DOGE is not wrong to work on govt costs. But again they are going after everyone rather than going surgically (some of the EU countries can take some lessons and reduce their budget deficits itself )

Personally I don’t like how EU or poor African & Asian countries are treated by US admin. I also don’t like that weaker is being squeezed. So yes we should criticise the policies but it’s not good approach to criticise American voters for their constitutional right. They voted for who they wanted.

Democracy doesn’t mean that we always need to have people voted who are great. Democracy means people get voted simply because majority wants them.

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As reciprocal tariffs go into play. We are officially in bear market for world ETFs. SSAC down 23% versus All time high.

But I believe the most important story is sudden spike in US bonds yields. US10Y is at 4.35% which means there is a lot of selling happening of US bonds as well.

People selling stocks & bonds at same time is worrying.

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Welcome to the Great Depression vol.2(1st century).

(#MDGA)

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You cannot unmarry Politics from Economy, unfortunately. Because frankly, since November my daily research become much more stressful and unsatisfying reading the shit that happens, and obviously has impact on the health of my holdings. But that is reality. Politics is economy, and politics means business.

Maybe reducing reading the “shit” will help to have a less stressful time. Imho, just have a plan and stick to it (including signals when and how to change the plan). I think this is quite common here in this forum. But agree some heated discussions in here lately. Emotions everywhere.
We are bombarded with information which appear to be always huge and one step away from catastrophe. If one reads them once a week or every few hours on the social media, it will not change any outcome but the mood.

Just my two bits… and this afternoon I’ll have a nip on a fine whiskey and ignore the news for today. Peace.

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